MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2003 Don't want to step on toes but this is one of the most persistant and important cycles I track on SP. I have just begun subscribing to Doc's site and learning about Hurst methodology...one of the few areas I haven't researched...currently reading PRofit mAGIC! Doc's cycle work probably incorporates this 77 CD cycle already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2003 NH:NL whew, do you really think this will pop up into never-never land! Pop(maybe) and BIG drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2003 MET, If this is a large degree A-B-C zig zag down, we are only in the B wave now. I have seen some calling this a completed A-B-C already including an article back in May 2003 TASC. B-waves are usually one of the easiest to identify due to there choppiness and oscillator "footprint." No way was the post 9-11 rally a B wave as these people are claiming...that's one thing I am sure of. Also, I am skeptical we are in a big B wave now due to its position and sentiment character of this current rally but it can be viewed as such. THIS STILL MEANS WE HAVE WAVE C DOWN AHEAD OF US and should take us down minimally another .618 of w.A...and most probably 1 to 1.618 of w.A. Here is chart reflecting that view...I have DT software. There are two important price levels to be aware of in the weeks and months ahead. The first is the Nov. W.A weekly closing high at 936.31. A weekly close below 936.31 would void any potential that the rally off the Oct. low is impulsive and long term bullish and would confirm it is corrective. The second is a weekly close below the March W.B closing low at 828.89 and trade below the March low at 788.90. If the S&P is to continue in a complex correction into the first quarter or so and eventually reach 1160 or higher, it should not make a weekly close below 828.89 and trade below 788.90. If these signals are made, the W.B corrective high is complete and the bear trend should continue to well below the Oct. 2002 low. The weekly DTosc made a bearish reversal last week on a major divergence with the new price high. The bearish reversal suggests the S&P has made the highest weekly close for the W.C. A new intraday high may be made, but more than likely the S&P will not make a higher weekly close. There have been three high-probability time targets for a W.C high so far this year. The first was in early May, second in late June and the third in the first half of Sept. In each case, the S&P had reached key price resistance zones and potentially the completion of a wave structure at these time targets but only made minor declines lasting a couple of weeks. One of the most important time factors for a potential intermediate high lasting several weeks is the 100% L-L-H Time Cycle Ratio the week ending Oct. 31, shown on the chart. A high lasting several weeks should be complete within one week of the target week or by the end of next week. Several short term time factors point to either Nov. 4 (Tue.) or 7-10 (Fri.- Monday) to complete the diagonal W.5:5 diagonal. My Gann anal-lysis shown previously (Sq144) point to next week, Nov.4 specifically as a high probability turn date. The 77 CD cycle also is in this week. When methods converge you have something tradable. I am short QQQ's, GE, WWCA Long GOLDX, EWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2003 COMP ready to turn, could be fast and furious with what looks like a termination wedge forming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2003 Go aussies!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2003 SP latest...360 and 144 from March low have 1/3 time intervals coming up... 90 day from start of this rally due tomorrow. If this cluster doesn't turn it around for some bigger decline...VIX=0 by New Years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2003 Market Map for your assistance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shebear Posted November 4, 2003 Report Share Posted November 4, 2003 Hanky.. What is the above chart of ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 4, 2003 Report Share Posted November 4, 2003 Hanky.. What is the above chart of ? seconded, mr. hanky.....what exactly are we looking at? if you could annotate, and add back the X/Y legends, to the last 2-3 charts, that'd be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 4, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2003 Sorry...this was just a little funning around...but wouldn't it be cool if the current SP did follow the "pattern of the trend" of the 1987 crash...you must admit there are some similarities! :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 4, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2003 What I see on King Fiat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 4, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2003 SP forming its own w.5 termination wedgy Good article on liquidity drying up as Doc has already forewarned: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archi...e/2003/1103.htm If this isn't the fat lady singing... I wish we could just get one good sign the top was in...a big weekly piker of the DJI to over 10,000 and back down would do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 4, 2003 Report Share Posted November 4, 2003 tanks hank! your comparison to 87 might just be funnin' around, and great fun it was, but this does seem like a verrrry interesting evening...lotsa diverging opinions, indicators, and TA, about what's gonna happen tomorrow and this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2003 Report Share Posted November 4, 2003 Stimulating stuff, Mr Hanky, thanks so much for sharing. If this is a large degree A-B-C zig zag down, we are only in the B wave now.I have seen some calling this a completed A-B-C already including an article back in May 2003 TASC. B-waves are usually one of the easiest to identify due to there choppiness and oscillator "footprint." No way was the post 9-11 rally a B wave as these people are claiming...that's one thing I am sure of. Also, I am skeptical we are in a big B wave now due to its position and sentiment character of this current rally but it can be viewed as such. THIS STILL MEANS WE HAVE WAVE C DOWN AHEAD OF US and should take us down minimally another .618 of w.A...and most probably 1 to 1.618 of w.A. Here is chart reflecting that view... The problem with that count for bears is that a 5 wave A would indicate a zigzag for B which - if that is indeed the pattern - could easily take us to around 1200. However, if the move down did terminate in October 2002 as seems highly likely then the 2003 retracement back towards the lows would appear to rule out a zigzag B and by default a 5 wave A. There is also some overlap in the 3rd wave of that count that though potentially attributable to post 9-11 market anomalies should not really be there. In my view the pattern counts much better as a series of zigzags down into the March 2001 lows at which point I have the B wave starting (of which b is IMO also a convincing zigzag). However, the count starts from an orthodox top in early September 2000 rather than the March price highs, which I have as the top of the 3rd wave of an ending diagonal coming off the 1998 lows. Furthermore, though I haven?t had a chance to analyse this as comprehensively as I?d like I?ll nevertheless mention that I believe it is quite possible that this move is itself the 5th wave of a cycle degree ending diagonal starting at the 1974 lows, with fairly frightening Hyperesque implications. Any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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