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IDS World Markets Mon 12th October 09


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t?s=^AORD

 

 

Hmmm, with 20/20 hindsight I should have closed out my positions before heading down to the city; missed the sell on a couple.

 

A reasonably strong start for the day but sellers are coming out of the woodwork. All Ords +0.4%, Consumer Discretionary is doing reasonably well, +1.5%, Energy +0.9% and Consumer Staples +0.8%. There's a couple of minor reds, Financials -0.3% and Telecomms -0.1%.

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Poised For Liftoff- Professional Edition

by Lee Adler, Sunday, October 11, 2009, in Professional Edition, Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit Cycle based stock screening data was mostly stronger on Friday, but with two short term measures weakening slightly. That could be a precursor to a short term pause or turn. Intermediate measures remain in a mild strengthening trend. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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Question about treasury cash call settlements.

 

Suppose we have a large cash call this coming Wednesday the 15th. When exactly the buyers have to sell to have money at time?

 

Simple answer is 3 days before, i.e. past Friday. More complex case - those treasuries can be already counted in the books and can be used as collateral for overnight credit, i.e. you need the money before the latest swift transfer time this coming Tuesday.

 

Correct?

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Having watched this closely for a few years, I can confidently say, it varies. Sometimes the effects are seen 2-3 days before settlement, sometimes the day of settlement, and other times a day or two after, implying that the purchase funds were borrowed.

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New Zealand House Prices Rose for a Fifth Month, Led by Cities

 

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand house prices rose for a fifth month in September, led by the nation’s largest cities, adding to signs a property recovery is helping the economy emerge from a recession.

 

Prices increased 0.6 percent from August and have gained 2.7 percent from a low in April, Quotable Value New Zealand Ltd., the government valuation agency, said in an e-mailed report. From a year ago, prices fell 1.1 percent, the smallest annual decline since June 2008.

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Having watched this closely for a few years, I can confidently say, it varies. Sometimes the effects are seen 2-3 days before settlement, sometimes the day of settlement, and other times a day or two after, implying that the purchase funds were borrowed.

 

That makes sense.

 

After all, the liquidity is only created by broker-dealers but used and leveraged by the hedge funds.

 

Every broker dealer is rolling the constant position risk check on every hedge fund it funds, and on itself. It makes 2-3 calculations per day. If the risk analysis yields green lite results the BD can leverage itself and extend credit to its funds for few more days.

 

However if somebody else blinks first and pull the credit it makes some volatility waves and the next run of risk check may produce far worse outcome and the deleveraging call will be issued. And so on, like a small avalanche.

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w?s=^AORD

 

 

Not exactly a bullish day. All Ords -0.2% led down by REITS -1.2%, Financials -1.1% and IT -0.9%. The chief greens were Utilities +1.4%, Telecomms +1.1% and Consumer Discretionary +0.8%.

 

Nothing much happening in Asia: China +0.6%, Honkers -0.1%, India +0.9% and Nikkers was closed.

 

 

On to UK/Europe:

 

Footsie

 

image;size=239x110

 

 

DAX

 

image;size=239x110

 

 

CAC 40

 

image;size=239x110

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Dollar Reaches Breaking Point as Banks Shift Reserves (Update1)

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks flush with record reserves are increasingly snubbing dollars in favor of euros and yen, further pressuring the greenback after its biggest two- quarter rout in almost two decades.

Policy makers boosted foreign currency holdings by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nations reporting currency breakdowns put 63 percent of the new cash into euros and yen in April, May and June, the latest Barclays Capital data show. That’s the highest percentage in any quarter with more than an $80 billion increase.

World leaders are acting on threats to dump the dollar while the Obama administration shows a willingness to tolerate a weaker currency in an effort to boost exports and the economy as long as it doesn’t drive away the nation’s creditors. The diversification signals that the currency won’t rebound anytime soon after losing 10.3 percent on a trade-weighted basis the past six months, the biggest drop since 1991.

“Global central banks are getting more serious about diversification, whereas in the past they used to just talk about it,” said Steven Englander, a former Federal Reserve researcher who is now the chief U.S. currency strategist at Barclays in New York. “It looks like they are really backing away from the dollar.”

Sliding Share

The dollar’s 37 percent share of new reserves fell from about a 63 percent average since 1999. Englander concluded in a report that the trend “accelerated” in the third quarter. He said in an interview that “for the next couple of months, the forces are still in place” for continued diversification.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aOTmsmEQpY6A

 

Philips Reports Third-Quarter Profit of $256 Million, Beating Estimates

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Philips Electronics NV, Europe’s biggest consumer-electronics maker, unexpectedly posted a profit in the third quarter as health-care sales held steady.

Third-quarter net income was 174 million euros ($255.9 million), from 57 million euros in the year-earlier period, the Amsterdam-based company said in a statement today. anal cysts had predicted a loss of 44.7 million euros, the average of 13 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Philips Chief Executive Officer Gerard Kleisterlee in July raised his annual cost-saving estimate to more than 600 million euros, up from 500 million euros. At the time, Kleisterlee, who is cutting 6,000 jobs, said he would implement “further cost measures” if needed.

Sales fell to 5.6 billion euros from 6.33 billion euros, beating the average estimate of 5.45 billion euros, based on 20 estimates.

Third-quarter earnings before interest, taxes and amortization was 344 million euros. Sales from the health-care unit held at 1.82 billion euros.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%

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Oh My Gawd, never thought I'd see the most carbon crazed lunatics on the planet fess up.

 

What happened to global warming?

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm

 

 

This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.

 

But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.

 

And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.

I guess that's what happens when you base your model on false assumptions, eh?

 

 

"Polar ice caps are melting faster and oceans are rising more than the United Nations projected just two years ago, 10 universities said in a report suggesting that climate change has been underestimated."

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=afmw1nT6inhA

 

So people living along the shorelines will not only be colder but will also have to contend with water by the heels in some decades?

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