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IDS World Markets Wed 22nd December, 04


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Here we go again... All Ords +0.6%, bearz hiding out and it's all buy, buy, buy. I thought it might be easier to talk in sector indices rather than individual stocks so I loaded up the screen today. Well what a surprise, green across the board <_< Property trusts in the lead at +1.3% and consumer staples somewhat lagging, +0.1%.

 

The big golds mostly up but specs flat. Oils doing well, +1% on average.

 

Not a red to be seen over in Asia, too depressing.. Nikkers in the lead, +0.9%.

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:o

 

Japan's trade surplus falls

 

TOKYO (AFP) - Japan's trade surplus in November fell 39.2 percent from a year earlier to 602.0 billion yen (5.8 billion dollars), the finance ministry said.

 

It was the first drop in three months and came in sharply lower than the most conservative estimate in a poll of 21 brokerages and research institutes.

 

Japan's trade surplus with Asia plunged 27.2 percent to 374.3 billion yen as exports rose 14.0 percent to 2.47 trillion yen while imports jumped 26.9 percent to 2.09 trillion yen.

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All Ords ran out of puff this arvo but still managed to close +0.5% giving us, yes another all time high, arrrgh. The IT sector actually came home the winner, +1.5% closely followed by utilities, +1.4%. The one and only index in the red was consumer staples, -0.2%.

 

Golds and oils did ok, with Woodside and Caltex closing up 1.2% and 2% respectively. Santos closed down a smidge.

 

Asia on the black side of the ledger with the exception of Honkers, -0.4%.

 

Europe did the sideways trawl last night, we might see a bounce in the next session..

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Standard and Poor's raises Indonesia's rating as economic outlook improves

 

JAKARTA, (AFP) - Ratings agency Standard and Poor's said it was raising its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Indonesia to reflect the country's successful elections and positive economic outlook.

 

SP said the credit rating would be raised to B-plus from B, while its local currency rating on the the Southeast Asian economy would be hiked two notches to BB from B-plus.

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Two Top Execs at Fannie Mae Forced Out

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fannie Mae, the nation's second largest financial institution, forced out two top executives as it struggles to deal with an accounting scandal which will likely force it to wipe out $9 billion in profits over the past four years.

 

In a statement, Rep. Richard Baker, R-La., the chairman of a House Financial Services subcommittee that oversees Fannie Mae, said: "Given the unbelievable statements Fannie executives made at our last hearing, this action was entirely necessary."

 

OFHEO Director Armando Falcon Jr. said in a statement that his agency had determined that Fannie Mae, the biggest player in the nation's $8 trillion mortgage market, had been left "significantly undercapitalized" because of its accounting problems.

 

To make up the anticipated $9 billion shortfall, Fannie Mae probably would have to sell part of its portfolio of mortgages, raise fresh capital by issuing stock or cut dividends -- and its spectacular growth of recent years could be curtailed. The company was ordered by the regulators in September to boost its capital cushion against risk by some $5 billion by mid-2005.

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TGT has MACD cross-over on the monthly chart. Looking to short it here. It is hugging the 50d ma and may bounce before it heads down. Looking for opinions from others here.

 

Also, from Bears Take an Early Holiday we have:

 

RealMoney contributor John Roque has compiled a set of new bellwether stocks to get a sense of the market's core strengths. His five-component index comprises eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - commentary - research), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME:NYSE - commentary - research), Target (TGT:NYSE - commentary - research), Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index.

 

The index has appeared overbought from a technical perspective for some time, but after moving 30% above its 200-day moving average on Dec. 15, it has since slipped a bit. That's an unusually high margin above the 200-day average for almost any index, apart from the 1999-2000 Internet bubble peak, Roque points out, warning that the market is close to an "an interim peak."

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:o

 

Japan's trade surplus falls

 

TOKYO (AFP) - Japan's trade surplus in November fell 39.2 percent from a year earlier to 602.0 billion yen (5.8 billion dollars), the finance ministry said.

 

It was the first drop in three months and came in sharply lower than the most conservative estimate in a poll of 21 brokerages and research institutes.

 

Japan's trade surplus with Asia plunged 27.2 percent to 374.3 billion yen as exports rose 14.0 percent to 2.47 trillion yen while imports jumped 26.9 percent to 2.09 trillion yen.

 

One must presume that this news is errr boolish.The first sign that the Japanese mentality is changing from "stick-it -away-for-a-rainy-day" to "lets all become Americans and spend someone else's money today"!

 

The President of the NL Bank has implored the Dutch to go out and spend--they too have apparently stashed too much on deposit accounts in the last few years.The economy is being crippled because the Dutch have stopped spending and the house-price boom ended 2years ago.Despite really record low interest rates, house prices are static to falling.

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TGT has MACD cross-over on the monthly chart.  Looking to short it here.  It is hugging the 50d ma and may bounce before it heads down.  Looking for opinions from others here.

 

Also, from Bears Take an Early Holiday we have:

 

RealMoney contributor John Roque has compiled a set of new bellwether stocks to get a sense of the market's core strengths. His five-component index comprises eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - commentary - research), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME:NYSE - commentary - research), Target (TGT:NYSE - commentary - research), Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index.

 

The index has appeared overbought from a technical perspective for some time, but after moving 30% above its 200-day moving average on Dec. 15, it has since slipped a bit. That's an unusually high margin above the 200-day average for almost any index, apart from the 1999-2000 Internet bubble peak, Roque points out, warning that the market is close to an "an interim peak."

 

Alborz: If I remember correctly about 2 years ago there was a stoolie who used TGT as a proxy for the S&P.It seemed to have some predictive value in that it turned before the S&P.(may have been wndysrf).

 

Talking of which--or rather Jickiss on M2M--has a chart of eBay:TOL. That ratio which has been climbing for quite some time suddenly showed a gap down break of trend yd. so it would correlate well with some analcyst putting fleabay and TGT into his "5 to watch" list.They may watch them go all the way to reality!

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Meanwhile,back in Amsterdam the privateer push-me-pull-you mob has made another(fifth attempt) to push our pile through 346.7--THE MAGIC NUMBER.

 

First push was successful(346.79!) but fell back after the blue pill re-inforcements failed to appear on cue.No doubt they will succeed at the 6th attempt,cuz that's the number of attempts, I've noticed in the past,that seems to work here.

 

All will be revealed in the course of time.

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