wrecked him Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 WH, That April 5 Gann lookin' like a potential top to you? SJ If I knew the definitive answer to that, I would be typing this from a South Sea island. However my statistical models did give short signals at the close today and so I went short. Duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 I don't know how they get the numbers...you have 300-340,000 people claiming UI/week for a month that is around 1.2 million people...so the jobs contract by 1.2 million but expand by 300,000?...sounds good to me... Well it's the end of the month and I said I have to break free...I have to leave... It is only a short matter of time until the jig is up...Now an immaculate lie is one that is used to buy time...like ya I have the money but my car broke down so I won't beable to get it to you today...but I will tomorrow... as long as you get the money by tomorrow then no problem...fail and everything spins out of control... If we were actually headed for the bright glorious future of pure economic bliss then buying some time is a legitimate course of action... Unfortunately the US has been buying time for almost 50 years...the amount of time you can buy constantly rises in an inflationary system... Eventually you arrive at the point where you can not buy (afford) 1 more nanosecond...then jigs up... When will that be? Unfortunately the best guess is that the final nanosecond very close... I'm sure those involved can talk the talk...but at an economic level there will be no walk the walk... I wonder if the people I sold my house to have discovered that the roof is rotted away on the one side? Lots of paint can work a miracle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stained jeans Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 WH, That April 5 Gann lookin' like a potential top to you? SJ If I knew the definitive answer to that, I would be typing this from a South Sea island. However my statistical models did give short signals at the close today and so I went short. Duh Hope your model's right, even though it would mean hedging at the top for me. But I'm flexible. It crosses back through my line in the sand (80-day MA on the Nasty 100 for now) and I'm back short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stained jeans Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 Speaking of statistical models, mine is threatening to call a top here but needs trading volume to lighten up a bit first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 I don't know how they get the numbers...you have 300-340,000 people claiming UI/week for a month that is around 1.2 million people...so the jobs contract by 1.2 million but expand by 300,000?...sounds good to me... Well it's the end of the month and I said I have to break free...I have to leave... Where ya goin' HT? I don't really expect you to answer that. With the time being so close, I figure you're on a classified mission ... either one last desperate attempt to save the system ... or else to push it over the cliff as a mercy killing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 I have a theory... In the April ContraryInvestor update, they talked about how ARMs usually grow rapidly as a % of total mortgage origs once the long rates start to rise, and how this time has been different in that ARMs have taken off even as long rates flatlined at the lows. My theory is that the Admin, Fed and Boyz are counting on the usual uptick in ARMs that occurs along with rising long rates to happen again this time around, which is probably a safe bet. They figure this will hold 'em at least 6-8 months, keeping the housing market afloat until the election. We're now within the 6-8 month window, Japan has hopped off the team bus, and now it's time to let the long bonds tank in exchange for a little political help from some strong job reports every now and again. But the election, dependent on J6P not being pissed about his declining house value, is sewn up by the sheer ignorance of the average J6P homebuyer, who will do whatever it takes (use an ARM at the worst possible time in hostory) in order to participate in the housing mania. All the Boyz have to do now is keep the monthly job numbers variable from now on in, to justify a maintained low Fed Funds based on "continuing uncertainty in the labor markets...we want to make sure that job creation will be fully self-sustaining before raising fed funds" blah blah blah thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 From SI <<it is probably reasonable to assume that most of today's knee-jerk market moves after the jobs report will be reversed. the devil is in the detail, or put another way, it's in the 'quality' of the report. 230,000 jobs added in health care and education, but ZERO in manufacturing? this sounds almost like a net negative for the economy at large ( i.e. no wealth creation )>> Adding health care jobs is indirectly inflationary.? Again, paying more for those things that we need. Prolly so. But look at the bright side, WH. It's not the WORST thing that could have happened. After all, we could have added 230,000 lawyers. MH Shhhhh; Bare might be lurking :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Doo Doo Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 I have a theory... In the April ContraryInvestor update, they talked about how ARMs usually grow rapidly as a % of total mortgage origs once the long rates start to rise, and how this time has been different in that ARMs have taken off even as long rates flatlined at the lows. My theory is that the Admin, Fed and Boyz are counting on the usual uptick in ARMs that occurs along with rising long rates to happen again this time around, which is probably a safe bet. They figure this will hold 'em at least 6-8 months, keeping the housing market afloat until the election. We're now within the 6-8 month window, Japan has hopped off the team bus, and now it's time to let the long bonds tank in exchange for a little political help from some strong job reports every now and again. But the election, dependent on J6P not being pissed about his declining house value, is sewn up by the sheer ignorance of the average J6P homebuyer, who will do whatever it takes (use an ARM at the worst possible time in hostory) in order to participate in the housing mania. All the Boyz have to do now is keep the monthly job numbers variable from now on in, to justify a maintained low Fed Funds based on "continuing uncertainty in the labor markets...we want to make sure that job creation will be fully self-sustaining before raising fed funds" blah blah blah thoughts? Very likely the plan ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 No matter what they tell you, inflation is real and it's here right now. If you run restaurants or build homes, your cost of goods has increased from 20-40% in the past four months. Watch the restaurant sector. Cheese, milk and butter up big time. Something big is going to give. Nobody really believes these employment numbers. This is just the top of a mania, and it's just not profitable for anyone to question the data. The bond market implosion will set off a final wave of refi-madness or quick sales/closings as the sheeple lock at what they think is the last chance for a fairly low mortgage rate. Expect massive whipsaws. Big news = big moves. They know how to whip it good...and it will be. I think we're going to see the triple top on the Spoos challenged on Monday, and then sold hard. The commodities are pointing the way on inflation. The smart money sees the inflation, knows the PPI numbers are a lie, and can certainly figure out that equities will suffer soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 I wonder if the people I sold my house to have discovered that the roof is rotted away on the one side? Lots of paint can work a miracle... Add a little spackling putty and paint works miracles on cracked foundations too ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 From Benson's Economic and Market Trends For investors knowledgeable about the Treasury financing cycle, following is the most likely time frame when we expect the "wheels might come off and the markets and roll over a cliff:" In January to March of this year, the U.S. Treasury financing need was $177 Billion and the Japanese bought over $142 Billion (15 trillion Yen) of our debt. (In the February 2004 refunding, Asian central banks bought 50% of the auctions, which caught the world's attention). In April to June, the U.S. Treasury receives both quarter-end and annual tax payments, keeping the financing need a modest $75 Billion. In July to December, the U.S. Treasury has to raise $300 Billion. The August and November re-fundings will be critical. If the Japanese and the rest of Asia don't come in to buy $200 Billion, bond prices are virtually certain to roll off that cliff. Our entire deficit needs to be financed with newly printed American, Asian or European central bank currency. Worse yet, the Fed funds rate is 1 percent, and the 10-year Treasury note yield is 3.75 percent. In the first 2 months of 2004, the CPI was up 0.8 percent, or a 4.8 percent annual rate. Even if the CPI settles down to 0.3 percent a month for the rest of the year, the CPI for 2004 will be tracking 4 percent! Inflation from rising commodity, oil, and a weak dollar, is seeping in. No investor in their right mind will accept a 10-year note yield of 4 percent with 3 to 4 percent inflation. By July, just in time for the Treasury's August re-funding, it will be clear that inflation is too high to justify a Fed funds rate of 1 percent, and 10-year Treasury rates of 4 percent. The big money players in the "carry trade" aren't known for being totally blind or stupid. These big owners of Treasuries and GSE bonds will want out! The carry trade will have to test the "Greenspan put" and we do not intend to be long stocks or bonds when the test comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 All in all I had a good day I banked some coin this morning and re-entered with1145 April puts and am still short-I raised my stop at the end to 1145 or breakeven in case they open up Monday. This looked to me like an exhaustion gap as after the initial blast they had trouble holding it up. So Monday I think we get a reversal. Todays gap was one of 3 in the last week waiting to be filled so it could unravel fast. The Bond market is in a whole lot of hurt and if the world backs away so are the markets also if the $ should move up the markets are again toast, Pandora's box has been opened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 Expect massive whipsaws. Big news = big moves. They know how to whip it good...and it will be. Several ugly, horrific geopolitical events have gone down in the past few weeks, leaving aggrieved parties promising revenge ... which hasn't happened yet. If it's just 'more of the same' ... urban attacks ... it may not have lasting significance. I continue to worry that something different and more economically disruptive will be attempted one of these days ... perhaps messing with the energy lifeline. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 AHR up today and only 10 cents off its 52 wk high. Zacks has it rated as a #5 strong sell. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted April 2, 2004 Report Share Posted April 2, 2004 The stuff rallies are made of It was time to buy more stuff By Marshall Loeb, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 6:11 PM ET April 2, 2004 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- After a disappointing, basically flat first quarter of this year, the stock market snapped back sharply last week and enjoyed a bright spring rally. The basic reason for the rebound was that a long-awaited scene was taking place across the nation. In countless offices, shops and factories, thousands upon thousands of middle managers, supervisors and foremen marched into the office of the Big Boss, stuck out their chests and said something like this: "Boss, we just have to buy more stuff and hire more staff. We've been stretching ourselves and making do with the old tools and machines and people, and we just can't do it any longer. Some of our competitors have started to purchase the new stuff -- it's really dramatically improved-and they are eating our lunch. The time has come to retool, rehire and buy!" And buy they have. Indeed, they have begun to buy in earnest. If they keep this up, it will be happy times for the economy -- and for the stock market. Largely as a result of the new demand, employment went up substantially. In March, the economy surprised just about everybody and, the Labor Department reported, added 308,000 jobs. That was about three times as many as economists had expected, and the biggest number in four years. The U.S. needs to create 130,000 to 150,000 jobs each month just to absorb population growth, but over the last eight months the average number actually created was only about 95,000. Along with strong demand, benign weather helped to add 71,000 jobs in construction. Health care and social assistance added 36,000 jobs. Only one big sector experienced no growth: manufacturing. But considering the heavy losses in manufacturing jobs over the past two years, flat was regarded as a bullish sign. =========================== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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