PileDriver Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 TE, really sorry to hear that about Hy. You speak from the heart and that's what I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Is he ASSking old time Stoolies (BARE wuz there from ab initio or just about, eh, Doc?) if they've ever seen such running and hiding FUR cover amongst putative bears on this board? IF that's the question, that iz. Recall BARE reads posts bASS ackwards, perhaps cuz he developed a fondness FUR fishin fly fishin' FUR bASS. And he's only read a couple on this page beFUR 'leap'ing to conclusions. Here's his answer to that Q: Never. It's pretty amazing. HRFF wuz going to put up a lengthy post on LOB ass to why he thought this rally "hog"wash (after all it involves a lot of flying PIGS, wot?) butt he didn't, due to laziness and the fact that he already advanced the major reason on FURday: There's a WAR on, STOO OOOOPS!!! It's at times like these - trial by FUR - one's colors come out, or one's stubbornness, however ya wanna look at it! LOL BARE knows who he'd pick amongst this crowd to go with him into battle after watching behavior here the pASSt week or sew. Who can hold up under FUR and who probably won't. Who will flinch, etc. BARE just sits 'n watches and holds fASSt to his uh...er..umm......GUNS (meaning, more specifically, his core short URPIX position). Why, if he were boolish he'd call hisself "Sittin' Bull"!!! Yeah. datzit. "Guns". "Don't FUR til ya c the whites of der eyez!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 And the Nikkei tonight. No need to be alarmed. Japan was closed Friday. This is ketchup day. As a matter of fact, I would not be surprised at all to see a reversal there when I see the quotes, in the morning. Earnings forecasts of a 70% jump over the next two years are pie in the sky. PE ratios are too high. Bear markets end when equities are undervalued, not overvalued. This market wil make new lows within 6 months, if not 6 weeks, or my name ain't Stool. Some news from Japan. ---Excerpt----- Monday, March 24, 2003 Trade Surplus Rises 20% In Feb On Brisk Exports To Asia TOKYO (Nikkei)--Japan's trade surplus surged 20.4% on the year to 936.2 billion yen in February, marking the first year-on-year rise in two months, show trade statistics on a customs clearance basis released Monday by the Finance Ministry. The overall surplus was bolstered by brisk exports to China and other Asian countries, more than compensating for the fact that Japan imported more crude oil in February and that U.S.-bound exports declined for the second consecutive month. Exports increased 7.6% to 4.32 trillion yen, representing the 11th straight month of growth. However, the pace was down from the 10% rise seen late last year and the 8% increase in January. Exports to the U.S. eased 13.6%, for the second consecutive month of decline, mainly because of a 20% fall in automobile exports, which slipped for the first time in six months. Exports to the rest of Asia surged 24.7%, for the twelfth straight month of growth, backed by strong exports of autos and semiconductors and other electronic components. Shipments to China showed remarkable growth, at 66.6%, serving as the engine driving Japan's overall exports. Exports to Europe were also stronger, marking the ninth consecutive month of gains. Overall imports rose 4.5% to 3.39 trillion yen, as escalating tension surrounding Iraq helped boost imports of crude by 60% and imports of petroleum products by 40%. A nearly 40% jump in crude prices also contributed to lifting oil-related imports from Indonesia and other Asian countries. By region, imports from the U.S. dropped for the third straight month in February, while those from Asia and Europe increased. (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Monday evening edition) --------------- If they wean themselves off of their exporting to the US dependency and their inter-asian trade continues to grow, they may start on the road to recovery. After all, there are some excellent Japanese companies. Kao and Canon for starters. The question is are their stocks sufficiently cheap relative to the their company's intrinsic values. All this fundamental discussion of P/E's, pension obligations, S&Pee valuations etc. on the board tonight. I feel like I'm in a parallel universe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 I have opened a thread for those of you tracking Globex, Asia and European markets before the NY open over on IDS. Dollar getting whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oilman Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 As I think Brian4 is right about the war and the market, they are so intertwined that it is hard to keep the war out. However, I for one amd glad that you enforce the no politic rule as it make this site much more enjoyable. I for one would not visit the site if too much politic and hate shows up. However, I do at times get the two mixed up as this war and war rally did. I am glad and please that you spend so much time to make sure that this board is politic free. Many thanks. Oilman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Wow, futures are down a ton... http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marketneutral Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 I know it's hard to believe, but here's where I dink we are. The market mind has a tendency to fool everyone just when you least expect it. Other technical considerations....... 1. NDX testing 200day MA line which has provided a massive wall of resistance every time its been tested this great bear 2. S&P testing downtrend line that has repelled all bullish efforts since the bear began 3. 10day MA put/call ratios at levels normally associated with tops 4. Volatility not participating in the rally, a bearish divergence 5. Open interest on COT report at levels associated with tops--too much margin to drive this rally, not new money inflows 6. I could go on and on and on, but I'll stop here for now Any feedback/rebuttals are more than welcome. Here's a link to the chart: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[g,a]eaclyyay[d20021001,20030215][pc21!c34!c55][vc60][iub21!lm21!lp21,3,3!la21,55,34!ll21!lk21][J10297681,Y]&pref=G P.S. I'm not going to call it, but my long term S&P count (double zigzag where waves W & Y are both 385 days in duration and 585 points down) projects for a selling panic bottom into April 8 and price target of 585. There are many potential catalysts out there for this scenario to pan out, so although it's based on nothing but numerology/technicals/etc, just know that the possibility is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMotleyStool Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Wow, futures are down a ton... http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/ I'm not saying that will continue tomorrow, but the reasoning I heard for buying (the war is going great) has taken a hit this weekend. Whe war did not end this weekend as the bulls hoped, Saddam still not confirmed dead, and lots of U.S. casualties. So, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 To Stool's remark above about the institutions driving this process one should/must? add the exodus of FUReign capital. Here's how an editorial in lASSt week's ed. of The New York Observer viewed it: "Rather than worrying about what Saddam Hussein is up to, maybe we should be worried about where people of the world are putting their money. Foreign investment in the U.S. is down 85% since 2000, from $300 billion to just $46 billion. And thats beFUR Mr Bush sends troops into Baghdad. The tumbling FUReign investment is coupled with a sharp decline in stock purchases by FUReigners. Now when the U.S. needs money, anxious FUReigners lend it to us instead of investing it in ASSets or shares. If the trend continues and foreign money keeps flooding out of this country, we're in FUR big trouble. Will FUReigners continue to withdraw their money? Well, look at the dollar. One could say that the dollar is the most critical litmus test of world opinion about our economy and investments in the U.S. Since George W. Bush was elected, the dollar is down 15 percent agains the euro, a loud signal that foreign investors have concluded the u.S. is not where they want o inest their capital. It's foreing capital that has financed our economy for the past 20 years - stocks, bonds and real estate." HRFF graduated about 30 years ago. Most of the time since this country has been living off the kindness of strangers, IOW, bankrupt in some vaguely-defined moral way, a dependent upon handouts. Sez The NY OBSERVER: "ASS a rsult of Mr. Bush's clumsy economic steawrdship and the potential cost of a war, the country is facing an economic debacle which threatens to flatten us." There's more, about how we're like a banana republic. Now that's a political editorial butt it's also the goddamned truth. NYO, Mar 17, at p. 4: "The Bush Economy In A Tailspin" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 MarketNeutral, tanks for saving me the keystrokes ! There are tons of other bearish indicators out there too! Low risk shorting opp #3 (since Dec 2 "Orgy high") Whooo, hooo! This market is serving em up. Fore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 re: the end of the Hypertiger scenario... I was going to ask Hyper tonight what he thought would happen should what he predicts will come true. Someone else beat me to it, and Hyper isn't talking about that yet, so here's what I've been thinking of. For a brief time there will be chaos. Martial law will be imposed (remember those FEMA related things that were signed into law during the Clinton administration?). Populace will be kept fed and heated by the federales. The debt problem will have to be resolved. Easiest way would be hitting the reset button on the economy. All government debt to the rest of the world will be wiped out. Physical dollars will become void and replaced with all new currency designs. Old money = worthless, in the US can be exchanged for new money. Outside of US dollar holders will be left holding the bag. Business debt wiped out. Consumer debt either reduced or wiped out. For some reason I think da boyz are going to try to really screw the general populace, which will trigger a revolt against them and the feds. That will probably last six months or so. Populace wins due to the sheer number of pissed off sheeple. Da boyz and friendz in jail or worse, society gets back to normal after a year or so, lessons forgotten after a while and the cycle begins again. Strangely while I was writing this I had a powerful sense of deja vu. No matter, none of this will come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oilman Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 With everything going wrong and the futures tanking including the dollar, will the PPT come to the rescue? I opened 1/3 of my capital short and 2/3 still in cash, bonds, and now gold on Thursday. It was a bit early to reopen shorts and I do not want to commit any more to shorts until the fog clears. This is a great time to buy gold and $325/oz is a major support and I will be adding and legging in to this bull rally in gold and silver. Once the fog clears, more capitals will be deploy to the short side. It is hard for me to believe with so many indicators showing a top that we could rally from here. Again, where will the money come from? We tank and make new lows. Oilman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oilman Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Oh and if you hope to see 9000 again, you might want to wait for 10-20 years or so. 11,000 gone, 10,000 gone, 9000 gone, now say good bye to 8000. Next stop will be 7000 the new line in the sand for the PPT. But some how I get the feeling we will not even stop at 7000. Oilman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Was wondering if after-market highs and lows count like intra-day highs and lows do? i.e. Both charts pasted together and used as one big continuous chart. Foreign money is leaving the market because of volatility and poor investing opportunities. Overseas suckers would bet on the U.S. market just like in Vegas if the odds were better. What market can one make money in recently anyways? China is not mature yet and their military style government reminds me of old USSR. IMHO, war rally continues if fighting stays within Iraqi borders. (largest resistance @ port city where humane supplies to dock/unload. Regime must avoid this gesture or local opinion will win war by turncoating.) If a bank has a freshly printed $1 bill in the vault and can loan against it 10 times, is this fractional reserve banking at its best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Fractional reserve this, fractional reserve that. Geeze, you guys, learn to spell. It's FICTIONAL reserve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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