Guest Posted October 31, 2003 Report Share Posted October 31, 2003 Once again the SPX was unable to break its 52-week high. Once again the NDX futures closed down from their opening -- 9 points down. The spoos managed only a half-point gain from open to close. Once again, VXO and VIX touched new intraday lows. It's happening in slow motion. But the market seems to be stalling out. One of these days it's gonna crack. I would only add: Patience Grasshopper. The action you cite only confirms the 8-day cycle has turned down, and the 13-day cycle has topped / is topping. On a given day when this is the case, no high will be broken (and held), whether 52-week or 1-day. The 8-day and 13-day are persistently by far the most important for short term direction, at least in my limited experience of observation. If we don't get a downdraft over the next couple of days, then 2,000/10,000 is imminent. On the other hand, we did not get nearly the upward movement to end the week that I was expecting on Wednesday afternoon. At that time, I saw 2,000/10,000 by today as about a 50:50 proposition. Not even close, not even an attempt. At this point, my trading account is actually with your call. I bailed on my Dow long (barely went anywhere from Wed) and went short, around 3:30 (Matrix Central time zone). While it sputtered for the last half hour, in the additional 15 minutes the futures were opened, the Dow took a 25 point dump, at least leaving me off to a good start. On this basis, it actually finished the day red. Hey, I have to look for any encouragement I can find. To quote Mo-Mo: I CAN'T WAIT FOR MONDAY!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ags Nightmare Posted October 31, 2003 Report Share Posted October 31, 2003 Is this an overly simplistic "apples to oranges" thought-train? Or is it as simple as it seems? Thats what was crossing my mind also. Dunno what to make of this yet but its growing. Alger was under the gun recently too and now Strong. It's not so much that won't be able to handle the pension fund redemptions as it is small potatoes in the big scheme of things, it's the thought of what if the rest of the fund holders said GMTFO. As much as I think stocks are POS's and the markets a joke, I'd rather it fall on its own weight rather than see a run on a fund company. I hope it would never get that far but even if one firm had to liquidate even 200 bill in stocks and bonds it definately would have an effect on the markets. The psychological aspect of the event alone would scare sheet out of people. I don't think it's a big deal real now but assume a slew of J6P's casually take their money and transfer it to Fido or somewhere else, there has to be a transaction to raise the cash. Alan Newman has always harped on the low cash levels in mutual funds being a characterisitc of the mania but it never seemed matter. If this snowballs, we will soon find out what kind of effect if any this has on the casino. Busting crooks to me is meaningless hyperbole but busting a huge fund company that reaches even the 200 a monther is a different story. Worse comes to worse just call 1-800 Al Green and ask for the bailout check. Ag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted October 31, 2003 Report Share Posted October 31, 2003 Will this first $10B in closed accts be the 4% drawdown that kills Putnam ? If so....we just might be hearing about it tuesday or wednesday.... Nice try, but no. All the fundies have extended lines of credit to pay out bailers without having to sell stock on demand. Could a bank suddenly find a fund unworthy of credit? That'd be interesting. But in this world of loose morals and credit, I doubt it. i've been wondering about those credit lines.... as you mention....just how far do they go? or to put it another way, just how far gone are they already? it's my understanding that the MF"s are only a few % up over the past few years. i.e., they took big losses on holdings during/after 2000.... if so, might the credit lines already be extended? perhaps my understanding of the situation is wrong. i'd readily agree that the matrix will pull out the stops to nip any run in the bud; but it could be interesting. i notice that PA put their coin in an indexed fund which they manage in-house. i believe most big pension funds have similar in-house capability....it could become a popular action over the next couple months....just as a 'temporary' measure, so that they can say "we don't have any money in fund X". Something about the Putnam thing is different. A month ago, nobody said they were pulling out of the MF's that got in the news. In the past 3 days alone, half a dozen big pensions say they're bailing from Putnam. Like it's become "the thing to do"....or maybe Put's probs run deeper... If the latter is the case, those big credit lines may not be forthcoming...in which case it wouldn't take much to sink Put. just idle speculation to try and spice up an otherwise boring market-day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiefywiefy Posted October 31, 2003 Report Share Posted October 31, 2003 Dozer! Love your math! The fine invisible hand of the Matrix will surely show itself here. I bought 3 of those new shirts...don't know that they'll last unworn until xmas, but that's what I'm telling my wife I'm doing... I predict, a huge seller. Just ordered mine also. Just in time for the next sequel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted October 31, 2003 Report Share Posted October 31, 2003 Thanks, HB. BTW I'm specifically interested in the fate of the current holders of WCOEQ.PK stock. Sounds like they get zero, and the $750MM is for the folks who got burned in spring 2002 - but that's speculation and I'm looking for confirmation. I would agree, it has no value. Today's order is the confirmation. It is very unlikely (but not impossible) that the final order of a bankruptcy judge cancelling stock can be overturned by a higher court. The funny thing is that some stocks continue trading even after they have been declared worthless. In this case, it is clear that the settlement fund goes to former shareholders at the time of the fraud and not to current owners. Sometimes the situation is reversed and the final owners get a settlement, which causes confusion as to who gets what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howl Posted October 31, 2003 Report Share Posted October 31, 2003 6 Months From Now: China Seeks Future Gold Production (...) Demand for gold bullion skyrocketed after the collapse of 3 of the 5 largest commercial banks on Feb. 15, weighed down by non-performing loans to shell corporations masquerading as semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Newmont Mining shares closed at $176/share, up 18% in after hours trading, and AngloGold shares are still halted, due to "order imbalances". When I get daydreams like that, my account is usually takes a big hit. I'm also curious what semi equipment company you think is a "shell corporation"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ags Nightmare Posted October 31, 2003 Report Share Posted October 31, 2003 You guys are right about the credit lines and leverage. I did just for the heck of it run a check on a few of their bigger funds and the cash levels are 2 to 3 %. Only way it becomes I bigger problem imo if it snowballs to other fund companies or this ends up becoming an issue with J6p. Right now it's a blip on the radar that could end up looking like giant Big Boy flyng in outerspace in the Austin Powers movie. Have a good weekend stoolies. Ag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 31, 2003 Report Share Posted October 31, 2003 To Pop Or Not To Pop Irresistable Force Meets Immovable Object Your Anals Fishmarket Wrap is loaded. Take a subscribatory and download RIGHT NOW! 15 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $2.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 31, 2003 Report Share Posted October 31, 2003 According to Trim Tabs last report the funds were basically fully invested with low levels of cash they have been deep into their credit lines to fuel this rally. But do NOT forget their ultimate out-by LAW a Mutual Fund faced with huge redemptions and zero cash or credit MAY simply give their customers a piece of paper (read I.O.U.) which states that redemptions will be met from the sale of stock when market conditions IMPROVE. Now this was traditionally the week when the Funds SELL their losers to enhance in this case their annual report. However they did not SELL this has been widely reported by CnnFn and Reuters etc-in fact they continued to BUY. So indeed their could be trouble here-Spitzer was all over the tube today saying-the funds he has busted are ONLY the tip of the ICEBERG and in the end they must make restitution to the fund holders they have screwed. The perfect STORM is on its way. As to the Market big cracks are appearing todays volume was the second lowest of the week, up and down volume were equal and breadth was barely positive and in the last two sessions the ticks had two lower highs diverging against two new highs by the Dow. I think we see a blow off next week to 10,000 intra day and then the collapse begins. I note Bob Carver who has been hedged for the entire rally went fully short today and anyone who watched the action the last two days has to admit there is no upward strength left, now propping is where the energy is being spent. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 1, 2003 Report Share Posted November 1, 2003 I think you are missing the point about Putnam. If convicted of fraud, they are finished, kaput, over, done. Arthur Andersen. That's it. Prudent investors must get out now, before it's too late. Putnam is going to liquidate one way or the other, and even a slight increase in shares for sale on the market can cause a crash. You'd better believe there's gonna be a bailout. The gummmit will engineer a split of the Putnam funds among various fund companies not targeted for fraud charges. They better act damn fast, or this thing is gonna steamroller. A run on the funds is not unthinkable, and it would be a direct result, cause and effect, of the credit bubble. It's not just that stocks are overvalued, it's that our genius financial engineers have engineered the biggest bubble in the history of the world. The bigger the bubble, the bigger the fraud, and the bigger the crash. There's gonna be hell to pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted November 1, 2003 Report Share Posted November 1, 2003 Unbelievable chart mhcayiay[pb50!b200!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh14,3!Ll14!Lc20!Lm19]&pref=G]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?...33;Lm19]&pref=G Yikes. I used to follow that one 2 years ago. Also ABAX. Missed a nice parabola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted November 1, 2003 Report Share Posted November 1, 2003 Russia Bans Halloween Let's nuke 'em for being oposed to Western culture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 1, 2003 Report Share Posted November 1, 2003 Likewise the funds are going to find their bankers far less friendly. They will be reluctant to lend to those under the threat of criminal charges, and I think would flat out refuse to lend to any already indicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain's Log Posted November 1, 2003 Report Share Posted November 1, 2003 I keep seeing all these "average Halloween expenditures" in the media.I only spent a few dollars for some trick-or-treater candy this Halloween. I am not spending the appropriate or average amount, apparently. What's my problem? I'm starting to think the candy purchase was really an excuse to chow down large quantities of "fun sized" 3 Muskateers bars... please get them away from me. I'm a Hallowscrooge. I'm going to turn off the lights and pretend I am not in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gruff Posted November 1, 2003 Report Share Posted November 1, 2003 Another EOM and another month of bears howling in pain. Another repost of (what I consider to be my seminal gruffstuff chart for this year. I been harping on about the major importance of the yellow Y1 and Y2 lines FUR seveRal months. To my beady eye, it appears that Y2 has finally been breached Any more upside from here and SPX will, likely see 1097 soon, and 1147 afterwards. Next week, or two, should tell de tale Success! gruff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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