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Glossary Part 3


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#226 Yellowstone

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 08:33 PM

From Drudge (FWIW):

MICROSOFT AND MOTOROLA SAID TO BE IN CELL PHONE VENTURE: Microsoft plans to announce on Monday that Motorola has agreed to produce a high-end phone based on the Windows Mobile software platform, media sources tell DRUDGE... Phone designed to make it easy to use e-mail messaging, synchronize phone with a computer... Developing...

If we can get everybody pumping, we can keep this thing afloat :grin:

#227 DrStool

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 08:34 PM

I was a little guy, but I remember Hazel well.

In 1928 a hurricane ran over West Palm Beach and killed 2000 in West Palm and Belle Glade. I imagine this was around 20% of the area's population at the time, maybe more.

It is my practice to leave the area whenever a big one appears headed this way. I saw what Andrew did. Definitely don't want to be here for the next one.

They're claiming that shearing should weaken the storm considerably by the time it hits the East Coast.

Let's hope.

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#228 brian4

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 09:05 PM

I'm impressed MH speaks fluent french! I wudda thought-chercher la femme and biere s il vous plait wudda been it-Tres bien mon ami-tres bien!-Trade Safe!

#229 DrStool

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 09:24 PM

Long Term Outlook Updated

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#230 dozer

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 09:24 PM

ON reading Noland this morning, I am struck once again that he relies on very stale data in proclaiming that the creidt bubble is in the final blowoff. The data from the Fed Z-1 is form the SECOND QUARTER!, which was indeed when the final blowoff occurred. Since then, the most current weekly data of key banking and monetary measures has shown signs of sever contraction, coincident with the turn in the bond market. I think we are in the calm before the storm, the pregnant pause before the shit hits the fan.


I agree that Noland et al sing "the same old tune".

However, I find Noland useful in this way:

He collects a lot of data in a single readable piece.

And truthfully now, when he uses his phrasings, like "astonishing growth in debt", one -does- have to admit that the quoted numbers truly ARE astonishing, eh?


On the more general subject, I guess I would just say that a lot of TA etc. is predicated on the market acting like it did in prior periods...and I'm not sure one can count on that any longer. There's just too much HEAVY manipulation going on...plus an enormously propagandized sheep-herd.

For instance, looking back at the beginning of this rally around March, on a 2 yr chart, it's kinda obvious that the market was just about to continue down; but then had a VERY vertical rise. Who among us correctly predicted this sudden spike up, followed by such a conntinuing rally up so much further? It's not something TA can predict, I don't think.


Yes, they continue to manipulate, so theoretically one should expect a continuing rally. However, doesn't it appear that the jams are having less and less effect each day? That's sure how it looks to my own greenhorn eyes...

Is this possibly a micro manifestation of the macro issues, such as the steeply increasing rate of "dollars of debt required in order to make one dollar of new GDP" ??

ps Doc; speaking of calms and storms....have you battened down the hatches? Here's hoping you get spared the worst of it.

#231 crooked_analyst

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 09:39 PM

Wndy,

It ain't stopping yet.....Two families that are friends both looking for houses....I saw a tear down (or fixer requiring $100K to $150K easily) 2,440 sqaure feet....on 32,000 feet of land in La Canada.....Asking price of $849K....six houses from a Major Fwy Onramp......I showed up to walk through it and there were five families thinking I was the Listing Broker....I couldn't leave till they all left....called both families to walk through it....they're both making bids above the ask....

Update:

As of this writing, there are ten (10) offers at overbid......

#232 BAREister

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 09:49 PM

Igor is returning "SHORT"ly FURom Transylvania sans his Vamp.

He says itSNOT quite the same when there'SNOT a FULL MOON.

HRFF conversed w him via this afternoon. Here's an excerpt FURom the TRANS(ylvania)SCRIPT:

"Yes, that'z rite. TwoScrews is inquiring about the number of catz in Seattle. Can you BELIEVE it?"
"No mASSter. Why is he doing THAT? It rains CATS AND DOGS in Seattle! There are TOO MANY to keep track of!"

A bad 'cane in W Palm Beach in '28?

When David was threatening S Fla in 79 NPR had a regional reporter named Jo McGleno (sp?) who did a lengthy story on the Class 5 storm that hit the Florida Keys 1936?. She interviewed survivors. Lake Okeechobee overflowed it's banks. The tidal surge overwhelmed Isla Morada/Lower Matacumbe Key where Flagler's RR construction FURced it through narrow openings/up over the barricades.
The tales told would make your HAIR stand on end. People literally tied themselves to the tops of palm trees, saw their families swept away to their doom in front of their eyes, etc. (ARE had a relative who bought a "conch" home on the leeward side of the island which had been lifted off it's foundations and spun around a la The Wizard of Oz.)
HRFF will never FURget listening to that.
So Fl didn't experience anything like it again, until Andrew came along. He is glad he wasn't around FUR that. There was a tendency, during David, to think one was "safe" as long as one was, as you were in S Miami, out on Kendall Drive, anyway, from the "tidal surge zone".
Andrew proved the folly of that.
How many zillion homes were damaged by Andrew? The number is staggering.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#233 DrStool

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 09:54 PM

The 28 hurricane cause massive flooding of Lake Okeechobee. My understanding is that that is where most of the deaths were.

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#234 anotherone

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 09:56 PM

I'm still holding a sizable chunk of shares on margin, and I'll only sell what I have to if I get called.

Been heavily margined on gold, silver and royalties for several months. No margin calls.

I use oil/gas royalty trusts as income earning ballast. Lately silver and gold have often not been in sync so they compliment.

The other thing is to never go to the full 200%. Leave 15% margin of error.

Use other sectors (techs, etc.) for ballance when they are in uptrends.
"Calista Flockhart's top is not near as significant as Maria's bottom."
--"Zapata" George Blake 8/5/2003

#235 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 09:57 PM

Wndy,

It ain't stopping yet.....Two families that are friends both looking for houses....I saw a tear down (or fixer requiring $100K to $150K easily) 2,440 sqaure feet....on 32,000 feet of land in La Canada.....Asking price of $849K....six houses from a Major Fwy Onramp......I showed up to walk through it and there were five families thinking I was the Listing Broker....I couldn't leave till they all left....called both families to walk through it....they're both making bids above the ask....

Update:

As of this writing, there are ten (10) offers at overbid......

What I don't understand is where the desperation to buy at all costs is coming from. I mean, what is preventing people from reasoning that there will be ups and downs in the housing market and if a fixer upper is being overbid like that, there will always be a cheaper opportunity another day?

Buying today isn't going to save the buyers any money on the mortgage, because any interest savings are more than eaten up by inflated principal. Besides, the principal will never change, whereas interest rates are subject to fluctuation in the future, depending on the type of mortgage.

They also aren't saving anything by buying because, as I understand it, renting is cheaper than buying, and has been for quite a while. So why the desperate urge to buy?

"Ah, but there is such a housing shortage that prices will only continue to go up - demographics, you know".... after I heard this from 3 different London friends a year ago, I knew the story was nearly up. Sure enough, a couple of weeks later, the stories of "softness in the housing sector" started creeping in.

This urge to do what everyone else is doing when it makes no financial sense, seems to be eluding me. But then it probably eludes almost everybody on this board as well, when it comes to this kind of reasoning.

#236 DrStool

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 09:57 PM

10 PM update from the National Stoolicane Center.

Isabel takes aim on Washington, Wall Street. Stool HQ should be spared. World Headquarters reportedly relocating to Happy Acres Florida Retirement Condo Association Community. Dr. Stepan N. Stool announces protest. We don't want no Washington -Wall Street riff raff. Carpetbaggers go home!

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#237 anotherone

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 09:58 PM

Time to dong CAMP for a three-peat?

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"Calista Flockhart's top is not near as significant as Maria's bottom."
--"Zapata" George Blake 8/5/2003

#238 DrStool

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 10:03 PM

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 100 miles from the center!

This is an immense storm, hurricane winds covering 200 miles in diameter! Tropical storm force winds extend out 200 miles from center, i.e. 400 miles in diameter. Just a gargantuan beast. A Monster storm. And it's headed for the most heavily populated and industrialized corridor in the US.

No one can predict what the economic consequences will be. But there's going to be awsome destruction if this thing doesn't weaken.

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#239 BartTheBear

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 10:10 PM

Man I'm glad I don't live on the east coast.

It will weaken over land, and the course may change but it looks bad right now.

#240 richmtn

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Posted 14 September 2003 - 10:13 PM

Little Steven's Underground Garage.
Steven Van Zandt's radio show.
NYC Sunday nights 10 PM - Midnight "Q" 104.3.
For info about when and where it is on elsewhere go to the Wed Site.

You can listen to previous shows as they are achived on the site.

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