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B4 The Bell Humpday 13


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:D Welcome to B4 the Bell! :D

 

The credit bubble sprouts a big leak:

 

U.S. mortgage applications fall last week - MBA

Wed Oct 13, 2004 07:00 AM ET

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - New applications for U.S. home loans dropped more than 9 percent last week even as average 30-year mortgage rates also eased from the previous week, an industry group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted market index, a measure of mortgage activity, dropped 9.2 percent to 658.2 for the week ended on Oct. 8, down from the previous week's 724.8.

 

Thirty-year mortgage rates, excluding fees, averaged 5.69 percent, down 0.09 percentage point from the previous week and 0.12 percentage point lower than a year ago, the Washington trade group said.

 

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index on new refinancing applications fell by 14.2 percent to 1,949.2 for last week from the previous week's 2,270.8.

 

The association's purchase index, a gauge of new loan requests for home purchases, fell by 4.9 percent last week to 436.3 from 459.0 in the prior week

 

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle....storyID=6487186

 

The above slowdown in new credit, combined with the effects of higher energy prices that will bite into profits like an unrelenting pit bull, will slow down the money supply and economy towards the end of the month.

 

After that, it's downhill. No more traction, soft patches, or head winds - just down.

 

globex.png

nasdaq.png

 

Good trading! ;)

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MEN OF GREAT INTELLECT...

 

 

 

 

"I have always strenuously supported

the right of every man to his own opinion,

however different that opinion might be to mine.

He who denies another this right makes a slave

of himself to his present opinion, because he

precludes himself the right of changing it."

 

Thomas Paine, 1783

 

 

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"Free speech exercised both individually and

through a free press, is a necessity in any

country where people are themselves free."

 

Theodore Roosevelt, 1918

 

 

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"The truth is found when men are free to pursue it."

 

Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936

 

 

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"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right

to tell people what they do not want to hear."

 

George Orwell, 1945

 

 

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"Any time we deny any citizen the full exercise of

his constitutional rights, we are weakening our

own claim to them."

 

Dwight David Eisenhower, 1963

 

 

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"What is objectionable, what is dangerous about

extremists is not that they are extreme, but that

they are intolerant."

 

Robert F. Kennedy, 1964

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

"Go f**k yourself."

 

Dick Cheney, 2004

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Dawn of Correction

 

Opportunity Ahead, Way Ahead

 

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MoGauge Plunges

 

Rate Downtick No Help

 

Once a week Doc fills you in on the all important MoGauge , straight from the MoGauge Bankers Ass. The MoGauge reflects a major source of liquidity in the financial bubble world and is an important indicator of future market behavior, often forecasting broad market movements months in advance. Take a subscribatory and download your MoGauge RIGHT NOW!

 

 

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Paging YOBO... Dr Yobo

 

Base metals getting crushed in London

 

nickel prices experiencing biggest drop in sixteen years -15% overnight

 

China crude imports down by 3%

The question is whether the U.S. cold is turning into pneumonia for those that export to the U.S. Without the U.S. consumer, there would be no Chinese miracle, complete with ramp up in raw materials.

Let's see if all this is only a mild case of the sniffles.

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Meltdown yest reversed on truly bad news; will the same happen today on the meltup after truly BS news?

 

Methinks SNOT. Another flagpole day. Maybe, if Bush has a seizure and becomes incontinent during the debate, we could have a downward reversal tomorrow. They would spin it positive, as a play on the chronic brain damage vote.

 

Lack of bad news = good news. Beat reduced expectations by a penny = good news. Not 'tall like 2Q earnings season.

 

Me no likee.

 

re: commods..the public's getting on board, the shakeouts are getting violent = Bull market.

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Today's guessing game:

 

Navellier has spammed me with an "Oil Shock -- Subscribe NOW" email. Here are his four top picks:

 

"?This dominant gas & oil company was a major player in Libya, before the sanctions some 16 years ago. Now it's incredibly well-positioned to score major new contracts, now that country is open for business again. It's a low P/E stocks with a nice 2%+ yield. A low-risk play for 50%+ gains in the coming year.

 

?This next stock is an aggressive play with huge profit potential. It's a Canadian company with a broad product portfolio, addressing a variety of market demands, including light crude oil, diesel, heating oil and custom blends. With a strong brand in the U.S., it's in great position to pump up the profits.

 

?Stocks 3 and 4 are the savvy investor's play in the biggest bottleneck of the oil industry. Drilling lags way behind needs. But refining crude oil lags even further behind. The first company I want you to own is a behemoth with a presence in over 180 countries. (But it has a special -- and very profitable -- relationship with the state of California.) The second is a pure play -- the biggest independent oil refiner in the U.S. Both stocks are screaming buys now -- before frost starts hitting the pumpkins in the northern states."

 

 

So, what are these companies? Particularly number 2, Brian and other Canadians?

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China consumers not ready yet. Jim Rogers always said China would tank in 2005 and to stay out until then, when it would be a great buying opp.

The brewing consumer recession/slowdown in the U.S. should precipitate a violent reaction in China. Steve Roach recently wrote a piece about Korea being the canary in the coal mine for Asia. They are weakening.

The implications for commodities, the dollar, and gold are immense.

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