NWD Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 It started early this morning on Crapvision with some bubblehead showing a bunch of mumbojumbo the result of which was supposed to show that markets actually rise when interest rates rise. Funny how all of the guests and themes this morning were preaching from the same hymnal. Each one saying that the markets would repond favorably to a rate increase. You don't think they knew the PPI number in advance do you? Notice the weakness starting to creap in on the jobs front...it's the beginning of a trend. Guest host on Squawk Box, the guy wearing the suit: Declining precious metals prices show inflation is well-controlled. Then a clip from yesterday's appearance by Barton Biggs: Stock markets wildly Dover Sole. Commentary: Yep, that crusty but lovable old curmudgeon Biggs nailed it again: market went up in the last hour of trading, sure enough. People listen to him. "Markets actually rise when interest rates rise." Yeah, right. See, people rotate into stocks because they don't want to bother with receiving higher yields. Makes perfect sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Elected short (10) stop 1098! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 So far the dippers are buying everything they can get their hands on All sectors Even miners!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 As always, wtfdik, but after yd's reversal, this lack of follow thru should be bearish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 You dare question herr Doktor??!! Doc's is right. The fed has never led, only followed. Given their recent tack of endless jawboning (nearly 3 times the normal rate of speeches, etc,) they too apparently have realized that they have no ammo left. There is no virtuous circle of supplying endless liquidity either. I question everybody, - including myself. ! After all we are not talking about the fundamental laws of the universe or something - right? It was intended as a joke. Of course everyone's position or opinion is open to question - except mine and Hyper's However, there are no demonstrable cases where the fed led the curve. In every instance I'm aware of, they only followed where the markets led. The higher the price of oil goes the more there is to drill for. But the world economy, and the USD in particular, revloves around "cheap" energy. As the previously posted dieoff snippet states the real problem comes when it takes more energy to obtain the product than it can produce. At that point oil is done. We may well be there. There is no viable alternative. The only thing that can reverse the current course would be a sudden dramatic global depopulation or an economic collapse. The odds of the first happening are miniscule while the second may be inevitable Oil in 4-5 years? Somewhere between zero and the price of unobtanium. My best guess is the economy will reduce the pressure on oil prices and it's quite possible oil could be significantly lower unless production capability drops sharply and exceeds my guess on demand drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 I will respect the first half hour rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucid and confused Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Thanks for the PNRA heads up windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henny Penny Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 As always, wtfdik, but after yd's reversal, this lack of follow thru should be bearish? yeah - 2-4pm yesterday was just a mogul on the slope of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkdoc Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 I'm out at present. This action in the Spoos the first 30-45 minutes is likely to be all emotion and manipulation driven, so I want to watch for a bit. But my heart agrees with Brian, as we left it last night at the close. Volume and time and sales still tells me it was overanxious dippers and covering shorts leading this drive. This wasn't the public buying. Or the MF. I think the fear and uncertainty is huge out there - the VIX does not begin to reflect it, which is why is hasn't mattered for months now. So can the dip buying bring others into the "most over-sold" market ever (which, by the way, is total BS)? The rest of the world thought Barton Biggs was full of poo-poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 The Fed does not control interest rates. They only control the Fed Funds rate. The 1 year T-bill is already up nearly 100 basis points. The rate has more than doubled since last summer and is up 75 basis points in the last 6 weeks. The Fed is irrelevant. And they know it. For the past three years officials at the Fed have been frightened to death. They have resorted to all means at their disposal (basically repos and jawboning) to persuade us that they are in charge. I know people who work at the N.Y. Fed (otherwise known as market control central). The only bull market is in underwear as they need several changes a day. Doc's right. Forget the wizard and focus on those people behind the curtain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Im adding This early strength is another gift Screw these manipulating ahs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Im adding This early strength is another gift Screw these manipulating ahs Yes, I have this uncontrollable urge to short GM. Think I'm going to give in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henny Penny Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 You dare question herr Doktor??!! Doc's is right. The fed has never led, only followed. Given their recent tack of endless jawboning (nearly 3 times the normal rate of speeches, etc,) they too apparently have realized that they have no ammo left. There is no virtuous circle of supplying endless liquidity either. I question everybody, - including myself. ! After all we are not talking about the fundamental laws of the universe or something - right? It was intended as a joke. Of course everyone's position or opinion is open to question - except mine and Hyper's However, there are no demonstrable cases where the fed led the curve. In every instance I'm aware of, they only followed where the markets led. The higher the price of oil goes the more there is to drill for. But the world economy, and the USD in particular, revloves around "cheap" energy. As the previously posted dieoff snippet states the real problem comes when it takes more energy to obtain the product than it can produce. At that point oil is done. We may well be there. There is no viable alternative. The only thing that can reverse the current course would be a sudden dramatic global depopulation or an economic collapse. The odds of the first happening are miniscule while the second may be inevitable Oil in 4-5 years? Somewhere between zero and the price of unobtanium. My best guess is the economy will reduce the pressure on oil prices and it's quite possible oil could be significantly lower unless production capability drops sharply and exceeds my guess on demand drop. yobob1; humor duly acknowledged. In pondering who leads who on short rates, might it be useful to think about who has freedom of movement. ? I would argue that the Fed lacks freedom of movement at this moment in history. Therefore they are stuck in a very tight box. The market is whirling around speculating on what they may do or not. The Fed however, cannot really do anything - cannot follow the market or anything else - they can only glumly sit in their box.. Therefore , as the stuckee, they are perversely the leader. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Big put buyer in AMAT, INTC 10k a piece and counting. Hedging INTC, DELL news or spec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 CECO Now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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