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Got home to Canada really late last night after my wife picked me up at the train station. As I got in the car, two little munchkins jumped out of the back seat and surprised me, so I spent the afternoon and evening being entertained by them. Finally just caught up on posting reports. 

 

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THE BIG TELL

 

I find that a knowlege of roadrunner catoons, poker and sailing are usefull when understanding asset markets and where they are heading.

Let us take stocks.

The events of 24 August were "the big tell".

A tell is a sign that a poker player makes that gives an indication of what cards they hold.

i.e it oculd be an involuntary twitich, drumming of fingers, looking at the cards too long, ....anything.....that is repeated whenever the player has a certian type of hand.

The tell was from the bulls on monday and it showed that they held a pair of dueces.

Which means the bears hold a pair of aces.

It was also like the coyote looking down and hoiding up the sign before he falls.

It was like the sailor staring at the barometer and noticing that it has suddenly dropped.

 

We are currently having the dead cat recovery bounce.

But it wont last long.

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Zombie meat and now fake squid, the chinese do not cease to wonder.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/heard-of-china-s-fake-rolexes-now-there-s-a-fake-goldman-sachs

 

The letter called on China’s government to investigate Goldman Sachs (Shenzhen), which it said is a financial services company linked to a group of gambling companies controlled by the family of Cheung Chi-tai.

 

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THE BIG TELL

 

I find that a knowlege of roadrunner catoons, poker and sailing are usefull when understanding asset markets and where they are heading.

Let us take stocks.

The events of 24 August were "the big tell".

A tell is a sign that a poker player makes that gives an indication of what cards they hold.

i.e it oculd be an involuntary twitich, drumming of fingers, looking at the cards too long, ....anything.....that is repeated whenever the player has a certian type of hand.

The tell was from the bulls on monday and it showed that they held a pair of dueces.

Which means the bears hold a pair of aces.

It was also like the coyote looking down and hoiding up the sign before he falls.

It was like the sailor staring at the barometer and noticing that it has suddenly dropped.

 

We are currently having the dead cat recovery bounce.

But it wont last long.

 

 

That's very cool.

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Whoever 'They' are they had better goose this thing tonight.  I suppose we could do a retest of the low but why take a chance.

 

Doug Noland has been feeling it, it being something big, since mid June. 

http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/p/credit-bubble-bulletin.html

 

Especially good is the July 31st post. 

"In a tiny subsection of the analytical world, analysis is becoming more pointed and poignant."

 

Zero Hedge has been shouting about China liquidating Treasury holdings but I am not so sure. Doc, does the PBOC use the Treasury's facilities to hold their Treasury paper? Bad of me not to know. All this talk of Treasury liquidation by central banks doesn't match your numbers.

 

ZH has also been touting the collapse of petro dollar recycling along with the collapse in price.  I can't find a hole in that  story as to how that hurts liquidity.  

 

I have to mention ZH because it's important. As the tout of all news that is bad I actually think it is a semi official purveyor of disinformation. There is some good info there, and some very very bad stuff. Bad as in pure propaganda but sometimes it's impossible to tell one from the other.

 

All these bearish stories on the liquidity front makes it almost surprising that the markets have not been worse. Then again they are just stories. Still, as we know, liquidity is everything.  In that vein there is the rest of the world and then there is the US, the last Ponzi standing.  I believe the deep thinkers are counting on the last safe place thing to keep America #1.  We won't grow on an absolute basis but we could soar on a relative one. (Thus we are actively spreading chaos, is one interpretation, that I believe in basically true. Which matters not at all.)

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ZH reposts my articles from time to time, and claim that I submitted it. Yeah. I submitted it to Wall Street Examiner. After that, it just wafts around. 

 

China is a black box. He who says he knows, doesn't. 

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