wndysrf Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Alan Newman's latest newsletter is out today. His proprietary indexes are currently in a "blowoff" top mode, not counting today's action. After today, it must be way off the charts. The Program Robots are currently self destructing. The "Black Holes" models are gyrating out of control, buying anything and everything to "catch up" from catastrophic losses. Everything is out of sync. Dollar, gold, bonds, commodities are all disconnected now, careening wildly out of control, as Robot Models continue to "double down" on trades, convinced that the MIT Math Majors who created the Black Holes Models are correct in their assumptions, and that eventually, the intermarket relationships will eventually come back to normal. Too dangerous of a market. The Matrix is now Reloading for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Small stocks, big headaches NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Forget Dell, Cisco and all the other tech behemoths. The real winners of the latest bull run have been from the small tech arena. . . . Stronger fundamentals should translate into higher valuations as well. But that's not the case either. The small-cap techs trade at an average of 51 times 2003 earnings while the large caps trade at a P/E ratio of 44. That could be a worrisome sign. "The way some of these smaller stocks that have suddenly come to life and exploded might suggest that there's a bit of speculation left to be wrung out of the market," said Barry Ritholtz, chief market strategist for Maxim Group, a New York-based asset management firm. Of course, this isn't to say that large-cap techs are screaming bargains either. But if there isn't a second-half recovery in IT spending, the smaller companies might be at more risk of a meltdown since they have enjoyed such strong gains already...the proverbial easy money. "The low-hanging fruit has been picked on a lot of the small caps already, and when the low-hanging fruit has been picked, you have to be more defensive," said Ritholtz. ============ Glad these folks are looking out for my portfolio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...t=0entry95342 Looks impulsive and not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 As gold began it's previous run and hit 388, Al Green "recognized" it as a Bubble in the making and changed the margin requirements thereby creating a Sell-off......Earth to AL...where are you now? You may want to take a second glance at what the hell you're creating NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 12, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Crooked: Al Green is likely to reduce required margins on stocks back down to 10%, and outright prohibit gold ownership by the public altogether. What ever it takes to pump the Paper Pyramid. Back to the good old days of the 1920's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 I think we had a decent chance of topping today ...but not taking chances and covered my position from last week for 1% or so loss.we can easily waterfall into options exp...we can also ramp up into it.I will most likely regret covering,but better safe then stupid. The major problem I see is they have many bears on the ropes and a 5-6% upday to crush them could not be ruled out in the near future.some hedgies are definately being crushed here.It may have been best to wait for my original target of 9000 to go short,but I took a shot. I am pretty much even for the year....but stressed all the same.Had some decent opportunities to make a few bucks but it was not to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Wndy... My guess is that he turns it into the LATE 1920's - early 1930's.... How much of a premium are you paying on your Gold Eagles and Silver Rounds? I've been having to hit $20 on Eagles and .50 on Silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Crooked: Al Green is likely to reduce required margins on stocks back down to 10%, and outright prohibit gold ownership by the public altogether. What ever it takes to pump the Paper Pyramid. Back to the good old days of the 1920's. You make a good point Mark. Something all bears should keep in mind is that the rules can change in order to keep the bubble pumped up. Mortgage loans could be extended to 40 or 50 years. Auto loans extended to 7 or 8 years. Loosened terms on home equity loans. Capital Gains taxing laws could change. Taxes on savings accounts could be raised, while taxes on investments eliminated. It should be apparent to all that the penalties for holding cash could get quite severe before this blows up. This is an all-out war on savers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusKow Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Tim Ord will be on the Tom O'Brien show around 5:20 EDT. O'Brien is off on his honeymoon and Damon Vickers is hosting the show. Vickers is somewhat of a fundamentalist and Ord is a trader only. The last show was rather funny that way. Vickers was asking about fundamental basis of a couple of Ord's picks, and Ord didn't know the company names (charts only show the symbols)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 My My. Double your money on AVNX in two trading days. Trading near $2.00 after hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Mark, thank you for the correct use of the word "careening". Many writers these days submit to their spell checker, I assume, and use the word "careering" in the same spot. I see it all the time and it's become like a dripping faucet in the middle of the night. "Careering" is what I would do with a Dodge Viper on a Nevada straightaway which is to proceed in one direction at full speed. "Careening" refers to taking the wheel and violently wrenching it back and forth. Which is exactly what these multi-percent ups and downs of the market are like. It's all fun and games until a tie rod breaks. Hey, if I ever start a hedge fund, that's it! The Tierod Fund. I'll pronouce it something kewl like "Tee-roh-dee" fund, but you'll all know what's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Don't tell anyone but . . . Japan Carries Out Stealth Interventions To Curb Yen's Rise TOKYO (Nikkei)--Japan's currency authorities are believed to have conducted between last Thursday and Monday unannounced yen-selling interventions totaling several hundreds of billions of yen in a bid to halt the yen's sharp rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Wndy... My guess is that he turns it into the LATE 1920's - early 1930's.... How much of a premium are you paying on your Gold Eagles and Silver Rounds? I've been having to hit $20 on Eagles and .50 on Silver. Crooked-A, go to Tulving.com. Pre-2003 Eagles (1 oz) are only a $13 premium. Silver (in junk - not the rounds) can be had for a $0.17 premium/Oz. Good stuff, good service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Mark and Scottcardiff, Thank you both again for the great insight. I have got a feeling that what we are seeing in the markets now might be a once in a lifetime phenomenon. I appreciate all the warnings - hope I will be a better trader next time. Thank god there is always another chance. Matrix Reloaded: I am on the verge of abondoning Zion and almost regret like Cypher:"why didn't I take the blue pill?" Long live the Bubble and Matrix. If you can't beat'em, join'em. Pile - glad to hear your soothing voice. You have had a strategy, a strategy that works, and you've stuck to it. Good for you. Much to learn from you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 when will it end? Someday. when is it safe to short again? When it ends. when is that? When the BPIs and McClellan Summation rollover and die. Do not fight the trend. Never pays. Anticipate the CIT, don't trade it until it actually happens. Right now, too late to dong, too early to short. I'm waiting and watching still in cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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