wndysrf Posted May 14, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 Speaking of that Daytrader in the Trendy Loft who walks the dog.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bullseatshitndie Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 get a load of this bullsheet, the reasoning by these sob's is so infuriating day after day regardless of which market. "There is a war or fear premium built into the price of crude oil," said Ed Silliere, vice president of risk management at New York-based Energy Merchant Corp. "It seems that al Qaida is ready, willing and able to attack Saudi Arabia's oil facilities and that fear is bringing speculators pouring into the Nymex." http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=...ces_3&printer=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 Cap'n Log....... Few from the dismal science department have figured out the formula for figuring the CPI was changed. Unsure when exactly but the charts reflect 97-98 time frame. Seems no one cares anymore or is ignorant to the fact that all governments everywhere are Michavellian all of the time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crapax Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 "Bond Market in Russia Faces Major Crunch" "It has been less than six years since Russia's financial collapse sparked a violent selloff in global markets. This time it is Russian's corporate bond market, which has fallen hard, and trading in all of but the largest bonds has seized up." "For the past week, they are just not trading at all", says Boris Ginzburg, head of fixed-income research for NIKoil Bank in Moscow. "The J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Index has collapsed 5.5% in the space of 3 days, its worst performance in 2 years. The losses and lack of trading liquidity in Russian corporate debt are causing headaches for hedge funds and banks' proprietary trading desks in the U.S. and London." "Many of these investors borrowed money to take bigger bets in positions in Russian corporates, and that they have been bid up to unsustainable prices by fnd managers scrambling to boost returns." "Russia's smaller banks were among the biggest buyers, and some of them are pretty leveraged. They are looking at serious losses", says Jeremy Hawes, a Moody's bond anal cyst in London. I think it was the book "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life" where I read about the action of the Mexican peso. Absolutely no volatility whatsoever. Wall Street invests in the junk paper there. Then one day, a huge collapse. Bonds, currencies, stocks everything is decimated. The existing bond traders are fired. Enter new bond players. Currency stabilizes (no relation to action by aforementioned new bond traders). Again new money flows in. Low volatility for a while. Rinse, repeat. LTCM was barely 6 years ago. Even a gopher has longer memory than these idiots. Above all, where is all this money coming from? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWD Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 The part about no bids in the Russian bond market is bringing back memories of when it happened before, late summer or early fall of '98. Didn't LTCM suffer exposure on that one? I know some major US financial institutions did. Folks' risk management models didn't allow for the possibility that the bid price could instantaneously go to zero. In the fall of '98, so they say, the whole international financial system came within an angel's breath of collapsing. Spooky similarity. Past is prologue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bullseatshitndie Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 From John Murphy's market message today... "CPI AND PPI NUMBERS SURPRISE ECONOMISTS... The most frequently seen words in the financial press are "economists were surprised". It seems they're always being surprised by something. This week it was the "surprising" jump in the CPI and PPI inflation numbers. The fact that economists were surprised is a story in itself. It shows what happens when people ignore the clear messages being sent by the financial markets. And when they ignore the obvious. Take commodity prices for example. The CRB Index has been rising for two years and recently reached the highest level in a decade. Rising commodity prices are a leading indicator of inflation." Few paragraphs later:- "Where have they been for the last few months as the market deterioration sent the same message. Long-term rates have jumped to the highest level in almost two years. Here again, economists told us there was no problem there because there was no sign of inflation. This week they suddenly started to take notice. That's why we look at forward-looking markets and not backward-looking economic numbers. Now, the only one left to convince is the Fed. Trouble is the Fed is populated by economists. " i watched an hour bloomberg tv session last weekend where Murphy was on going over a variety of charts. it was quite interesting. he was bashing economists on the inflation front. not sure if this is a weekly feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bullseatshitndie Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 spx never hit it's lower trend/channel line like the dow did. would like to see a monday morning brief rally and failure on the bradley turn date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 14, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 From the "narrow" of 286 bps in early April, spreads for Turkish obligations, over treasuries, have widened to 568 bps today. The yield went from 7.05% to 10.45%. On the same move, Brazilian issues have widened from 462 bps to 670 bps as yields increased from 8.55% to 11.47%. In the U.S., the high-yield spread widened to 252 bps on Friday. The breakout is at 265 bps and this is lagging other issues with spreads for medium and high-grade corps making new "wides" for the move. This represents a serious loss of global liquidity which was led by the bellwether 10-year swap spread, which reversed to widening at 36.5 bps on March 23. Now it's at 54.25 bps. Argentina has been way ahead with a spread of 3901 bps, over, at a yield of 43.78% From Bob Hoye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silky_Xlax Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 Beware of the ides of May May 17 - Cicada's are going to rise up after 17 years and be all over the place... (We all know what happened 17 years back in 1987, dont we? ) May 17th - Bradley turn date... May 17th - is exactly 61.8% of the time duration of Nasdaq peak of 3/10/00 and bottom of 10/10/02... Something wicked comes this Way On the ides of May (ok - ok, plus 2 - why be fussy about poetry ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soros Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 OTC derivatives statistics at end-December 2003: http://www.bis.org/press/p040514.htm "Total estimated notional amount of outstanding OTC contracts almost reached $200 trillion at the end of December." http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy0405.pdf The total estimated notional amount of outstanding OTC contracts stood at $197.1 trillion at the end of December 2003. Gross market values, however, fell to $7.0 trillion. With $111 trillion in notional amounts outstanding, interest rate swaps remain the largest single group of products in the OTC derivatives market. After taking into account bilateral netting arrangements, the derivatives-related gross credit exposures of reporting institutions grew to $2 trillion at the end of 2003. John Hussman in July 11, 2003: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/html/debtswap.htm "The reason this figure is so enormous is that there are usually several links in the chain from borrower to investor." "Gross market values" of "Interest rate contracts" fell from 5,459 to 4,328 billion. Is that supposed to show up on someone's financial report? "Gross market values are defined as the sum of the absolute values of all open contracts with either positive or negative replacement values evaluated at market prices prevailing at the reporting date. Replacement values stand for the price to be received or paid if the instrument were sold in the market at the time of reporting." How does this bilateral/multilateral netting work that takes down their exposure to 0.1% of the notional value? "Gross credit exposure": 1,986 billion. "Gross market values after taking into account legally enforceable bilateral netting agreements." "Current credit exposure represents the gross value of contracts that have a positive market value after taking account of legally enforceable bilateral netting agreements. Liabilities arising from OTC derivatives contracts represent the gross value of contracts that have a negative market value taking account of legally enforceable bilateral netting agreements." OCC: http://www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htm http://www.occ.treas.gov/scripts/newsrelea...Doc=M6Q98K6.xml BIS "Gross market values": 6,987 billion The gross positive and gross negative "fair values" traded and not traded. OCC "Gross fair values" : 2,323 billion Positive traded: 1,147 billion Negative traded: 1,128 billion BIS "Gross credit exposure": 1,986 billion Current Exposure: ? Potential Future Exposure: ? "Total credit exposure, which is the sum of current credit exposure and potential future exposure. Current credit exposure, which is the gross positive fair value of contracts less the dollar amount of netting benefits." OCC "Total credit exposure from all contracts": 755 billion Current Exposure: 217 billion Potential Future Exposure: 538 billion BIS "Bilaterally netted current contracts/gross positive fair values": ? OCC "Bilaterally netted current contracts/gross positive fair values": 82% JPM Bank: Notional: 36,806 billion JPM Bank: Current credit exposure bilaterally netted: 71 billion http://www.forbes.com/reuters/newswire/200...rtr1318534.html J.P. Morgan's total credit exposure through derivatives also is only $48 billion after taking into consideration so-called "netting" agreements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 14, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 "Total estimated notional amount of outstanding OTC contracts almost reached $200 trillion at the end of December." How can this number be so big and how can the risk not be rountripped back to Wall Street? That is the Miracle of the Perpetual Motion Machine. The Atomic Particle Accelerator, which turns debt into AAA-rated Money Markets by vaporizing all risks and sending out into Outer Space via Bermuda SPV Garbage Heaps. Its simple. Take 12,000 Boob Job Loans, pool them up, then cut the pool into 3 pieces: Tranche A: Senior Boob Job Receivables on FICOs of 675 or better. Yields 6% Tranche B: Senior Boob Job Receivables on FICO's of under 675, but 75% guaranteed by MBIA, and credit swapped with Deutsche Bank. Yields 7.5%. Tranche C: Subordinated Boob Job Receivables from all Drama Queens, Psychos, Hollywood Actress Wannabes, Ex-Wives over 45, and all with FICOs under 575. Credit enhanced 25% by ABK, backed by a letter of credit from Banque Zambia, which is piggybacked with another letter of credit from Credit Suisse, which has hedged its risk off by buying off a piece of the Citibank Derivative Cyclone Trust, which is cross guaranteed by 45 HedgeHogs for a fee, all of which are domiciled in a "bankrupt remote" SPV located in Trinidad and Tobagos. Yields 14%. Good luck.... Look no further than your Money Market Prospectus for Tranch A stuff. All that crap is sitting in your fund that pays less than 1%. Tranche B and Tranche C are purchased by High Yield Bond Funds, other HedgeHogs, SpreadTraders, Foreign Insurance Companies, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 jickiss is back. dear Marky Mark: Very apt description of the division of garbage high-yield debt into tranches. upon questioning, the holders of the highest yielding (riskiest) tranches would tell you that: these things are safe, they are "really equities" dressed up as bonds. or maybe some will not pay, but the yield on the whole portfolio will be ALWAYS greater than the yield on treasuries, and the enhanced returns will pay for the few failures in the portfolio. or three, after you got them drunk enough to stop lying: we already skimmed our fees, and our money is safe in gold, swiss francs, and deposits in bbh. (white shoes know who bbh is). regards, jickiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 Uh -- I gather that it would be better not to leave cash in brokerage accounts? And whassup with this? Bulletin: Oracle slashes value of bid for PeopleSoft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=GG,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb17!b9!f][vc60][iut!La4,6,5!Ll14]&pref=G hope that this opens regards, jickiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dingleberry Posted May 14, 2004 Report Share Posted May 14, 2004 Head and shoulders on Nasdaq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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