More Bulletin Board Exotica

[DrStool]

Al Throws A Bone

 

Do Dealers Need It?

 

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MoGauge Swoons

 

Refis Plunge on Rate Uptick

 

Once a week Doc fills you in on the all important MoGauge , straight from the MoGauge Bankers Ass. The MoGauge reflects a major source of liquidity in the financial bubble world and is an important indicator of future market behavior, often forecasting broad market movements months in advance. Take a subscribatory and download your MoGauge RIGHT NOW!?

 

 

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[Tchaikofsky]

Broadening Patterns Suggest an ?Excitedly Active Public?

 

Volume ??With the Broadening Formation, trading activity usually remains high and irregular throughout its construction. If it develops after an advance, as is almost always the case, the first Minor Reversal which starts the pattern will occur on large turnover, with will the second rally in the pattern, and the third, and high volume also frequently develops on one or more of its Minor Bottoms. The whole picture ? both price and volume ? is, thus, one of wild and apparently ?unintelligent? swings.?

 

Wild rumors? An excitedly committed public? Unintelligent price and volume swings? Do these words, written in 1947 sound familiar? Nothing has changed on Wall Street. It is time to keep the gunpowder dry and wait for this insanity to end. This is likely to be indicated by decisive breaks in the technical patterns, such as the broadening patterns and the plunging necklines illustrated above.

[mjkst27]

The Cosmic Joke will be when we get a 200 basis Shocker Move in the 10-year within a week.

 

Followed by another 200 basis point move the next week.

 

And within 30 days, Joe Six's payments will be 60% higher.

are ARMs tied to T-Bone yields???? I thought they were tied to short rates? :shocked

[mjkst27]

Doc - why won't the Fed just fill in the gaps whenever the IRA flows blow over? Isn't that presumably why they have tightened up lately - no need to pump alongside the IRA's and (until recently) the Japanese inflows? Certainly the Fed is on the case even more than you are, sees the same things you do, and will do what they can to prevent the tap from running dry?

 

NO! This is not an expression of some boundless faith in the Fed or anyone else to float the unfloatable forever. I've simply seen too many of these "liquidity is going to dry up after such and such" themes, only to see bears get eviscerated. Please pardon my humble skepticism.

[DrStool]

I think the bond market is the wild card. It is yet to be proven theory that the Fed can peg bond yields. I subscribe to Mark's theory that the bond market may come unglued as these inflationary fires rage.

 

That's what makes this so fascinating. No one knows. Can the Fed keep this levitated forever. I doubt it. All Ponzi schemes must eventually collapse. If they try to print their way out it will be a hyperinflationary collapse, but a collapse nevertheless. Owning gold is a must under any and all circustances.

[Jorma]

Semi good article in the NYT about Shell and their reserves problem. The elephant in the room is ignored however. That being the quality of reserves everywhere in the world, particularly the ME.

 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/08/business/08OIL.html?hp

 

Others are more up on this stuff than me but the two camps on the amount of oil left are a bit apart. Bears say the worlds total oil output when all is done will end up at 1 trillion barrels, with the peak producition commnig this decade. Bulls say 3 trillion, with a peak in the 2020's.

 

You can guess where the US energy department falls on this. Firmly in the bull camp.

 

Shells problem pertaining to lying about their reserves is probably a key reason why the oil sector has been moribund. Everyone is in the same boat probably. How Marks oil service sector plays into this I am not sure. A crude guess might be, as the article suggests, that all the fancy new technolgy to get more out of the old fields isn't all it's cracked up to be. At least on a cost basis. If and when oil hits $40 or more I would imagine this sector will start to respond, with more exploration as well.

 

 

On stuff I didn't know, and still dont regarding reserves is that getting 20% of the oil in a field is considered good. I don't know if all the reserves numbers are rcoverable reserves or the gross. Iraq's fields are in such bad shape that only 6% may be gettable, or so I have heard.

[Guest]

GALLUP, N.M., April 8 (UPI) -- Six people were injured, four of them critically, in an explosion and fire Thursday at a New Mexico oil refinery, state officials reported.

 

Investigators immediately determined the explosion at the Giant Industries Inc. refinery near Gallup was an accident and not a terrorist incident, Gov. Bill Richardson said.

Another Accident

[patriot]

Dear Stools,

 

 

I noticed a 500,000 share afetr hours trade on AMZN.

 

There was also a 13,750 block .

 

Both went off at $47.40 ( .68 plus below the close).

 

The time was listed under after hours trading at 16:00.

 

This represented @79% of afetr hours trading.

 

Is there any way i can find out if it went off on the bid or ask?

 

 

Thanks Much

 

Best Day

 

patriot

[machinehead]

Might this be a harbinger of 2.5% 10 year treasury yields ?

Then they would need another pension bailout.

 

The lower the assumed yield on the pension portfolio, the higher the current contribution.

 

Defined-benefit plan sponsors have been complaining that when sales of the 30-year bond were stopped in 2001, it created an artificial shortage which drove up the price, and reduced the yield to an abnormally low 5%. The low yield is killing them. (Much as 1% T-bills are killing retired folks who thought they could always earn a steady, safe 5% or 6% on T-bills.)

 

Presumably the new "blended corporate bond rate" will let them assume a future yield of more like 6.5% or 7.0%. Current contributions go down, or maybe become unnecessary.

 

So rising bond yields are good for corporate plans? Yeah, in one sense ... but think of what rising rates will do to their stock portfolios ... and their existing long bonds. As the available yield rises, the portfolio principal shrinks. Can't win for losing ...

[wndysrf]

Might this be a harbinger of 2.5% 10 year treasury yields ?

Then they would need another pension bailout.

 

The lower the assumed yield on the pension portfolio, the higher the current contribution.

 

Defined-benefit plan sponsors have been complaining that when sales of the 30-year bond were stopped in 2001, it created an artificial shortage which drove up the price, and reduced the yield to an abnormally low 5%. The low yield is killing them. (Much as 1% T-bills are killing retired folks who thought they could always earn a steady, safe 5% or 6% on T-bills.)

 

Presumably the new "blended corporate bond rate" will let them assume a future yield of more like 6.5% or 7.0%. Current contributions go down, or maybe become unnecessary.

 

So rising bond yields are good for corporate plans? Yeah, in one sense ... but think of what rising rates will do to their stock portfolios ... and their existing long bonds. As the available yield rises, the portfolio principal shrinks. Can't win for losing ...

Why stop at Corporates?

 

Next year, they'll raise the bar and use the Merry Lynching Junk Index as the benchmark.

[BeerMarket]

sorry MH, you have it all wrong:

 

Statement by the White House Press Secretary

WASHINGTON, April 8 /PRNewswire/ -- The following is a statement by the

White House Press Secretary:

 

    Today's bipartisan Senate approval of crucial pension legislation, by a

strong 78-19 vote, is a victory for millions of Americans who count on

pensions for their retirement.  This is a responsible package that will help

protect the integrity of workers' pensions.  It fixes an outmoded formula for

determining employer contributions to pension plans and ensures fair treatment

for employers who have done the most to fund their plans.  The President looks

forward to promptly signing this important legislation into law.

 

for some reason the phrase "special place in hell" is stuck in my mind.

[mjkst27]

So rising bond yields are good for corporate plans? Yeah, in one sense ... but think of what rising rates will do to their stock portfolios ... and their existing long bonds. As the available yield rises, the portfolio principal shrinks. Can't win for losing ...

yet another distortion in the time-space continuum due to the dishonest unit of account (aka "the dollar") underpinning all of today's economic activity.

 

On a related note, it still amazes me that the Seniors Lobby has remained mum on the persistence of the Fed in maintaining Fed Funds rates at 1? Kelvin. What say ye geezers?

[EddieBear]

Shells problem pertaining to lying about their reserves is probably a key reason why the oil sector has been moribund. Everyone is in the same boat probably.

I read Deffeye's book "Hubbert's Peak" a couple years ago. I remember that he talked about how one could invest for this, and concluded there wasn't any way to do it.

 

Recently I read Matt Simons' investigation of Saudi reserves. The result of using saltwater injection and horizontal drilling may mean that production in the Ghawar field could plummet at any time. Maybe five years from now, maybe tomorrow.

 

I'm a computer programmer. WTFDIK?

[machinehead]

Next year, they'll raise the bar and use the Merry Lynching Junk Index as the benchmark.

Mark, Mark. We're thinking like old grayhairs here.

 

Why not use the SOX or the SMH as a benchmark? That's what the pension plans' 27-year-old hedge fund managers are doing.

[anoscope]

Dear Stools,

 

 

I noticed a 500,000 share afetr hours trade on AMZN.

 

There was also a 13,750 block .

 

Both went off at $47.40 ( .68 plus below the close).

 

The time was listed under after hours trading at 16:00.

 

This represented @79% of afetr hours trading.

 

Is there any way i can find out if  it went off on the bid or ask?

 

 

Thanks Much

 

Best Day

 

patriot

there are no market makers in aftermarket. but, if you know it was on island, you can see if the 'bid' or "ask" was accepted (that is, matched). At least Island.com had that in the time/day sales.