wndysrf Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 Today is going to be a special feature, discussing the technical side of the market, using JNPR as an example. Later on, this type of analysis may be added to Doc?s Anals in the paid section. So this is a primer. When JNPR runs 30% on 75 million shares, easily 10x the average daily volume, one of two scenarios is playing out: 1) A ?Seminal Event? has occurred in a particular sector. This means that a dramatic reversal of fortune is being front run by the Momentum Monkeys. Many times, you won?t actually see the news that is running the stock until well into the middle of the run, after the fact. However, this time, we may have gotten lucky. In Monday?s USA Today: "Despite its economic and political might, the USA is falling behind other nations in arming consumers and small businesses with a key economic tool: high-speed Internet access, also known as broadband. The USA ranks 11th worldwide in broadband use, behind such places as S. Korea, Hong Kong, and Iceland. Fast Internet is so cheap and widespread in Seoul, its like ?running water?, says consulting-business owner James Rooney. Foreign governments are pouring big bucks into broadband. S. Korea?s government is spending $50 billion to extend broadband to businesses and homes. The European Union has set a goal of widespread broadband access in its 15 nations by 2005. Other Asian nations are supercharging broadband adoption by pouring billions of dollars worth of government money into building high speed networks to attract foreign investment. Consulting firm Sapient of Cambridge, Mass., already taps a global workforce. About half of its 700 employees are in India. Broadband is making it possible. Entrepreneur Adrian Scott started Ryze, a business networking Web site in San Francisco. Scott runs Ryze from the Bahamas with a connection twice as fast as what?s available in San Francisco. His five customer support and software engineer employees work in India, also over broadband." Next, there is an article on how AOL is using the Discovery Channel ?American Chopper? cast to tout its new broadband ?accelerator? in its upcoming Super Bowl ad. Now you get the picture. Foreign governments borrowing and spending massive amounts to build broadband networks, to recruit U.S. ?service businesses? to relocate their headquarters there, so they can use their networks to use India workers to do all the work. I guess eventually, most of the U.S. Population will be daytrading from the Bahamas, using RIMM Blackberry handhelds from the beach, where .0005 real time executions are possible, and if you have any problems, just call Interactive Brokers? customer service reps in India. 2) The Round Trip JNPR may be pulling off a huge ?Round Trip?, like the one experienced on KKD in late May 2003. KKD gapped up on huge volume, and ran another 10 points on hardly any volume the next 30 days. Then it traded sideways in July, where all the shorts piled on again, and another squeeze ensued in August, pushing the stock up another 7 points. After that, the stock collapsed, rallied, and collapsed again, and as of today, the stock returned to the original breakout area. But as you can see, it took 7 ? months for all that volume to be roundtripped. With the massive volume that came into JNPR Friday, it will take a very long time for all that volume to get worked off. Essentially, anybody who bought the stock since July 2001 is now in a winning position, and that?s plenty of profitable hands willing to ?defend the stock? against any weakness. Summary: High volume breakouts on these ?Must Own 1999 Screamers? are always warning signs of future strength in the tech market. Other recent examples: AMZN and EBAY in late April 2002 AMD in mid August 2002 CSCO in early November 2002 QCOM in early December 2002 IBM last week. Remember, Fumble Managers must be fully invested at all times. No exceptions. And if they are falling behind the S & P index, then they will pile into the High Beta Soap Queens to catch up. No Fumble Manager is going to get fired for buying these stocks, since they are highly sponsored by The Matrix Bubble Blowers. ........................................ I'm going to let Ag's Nightmare finish up: [unedited] This is way out there folks and no I am not drinking......Just doing a lot mulling over what we have seen lately..... This is my longer term view of jetsonomics or my best guess at whats running through the mind of Al Green, Big Ben, and the Parliement.... Wndy, first I do not think what you are saying is far fetched....Particularly the part of how people will lose money in a rising market....kind of like an Ameratina situation....To this is whats happening presently and I beleive it's what Al Green wants vs. what at one time he "sort of" wanted to prevent. Maybe he gets his rocks off on this stuff.... I think of Al as a Nik Leeson who owns the bank... A guy who somehow incredibly lost it all then doubled down and got a second chance only because he "is' the house and we are the most powerfull member of the Matrix.....A guy who will never be held accountable,,,,for now... We call the shots...will we be unseated ? Thats one of the real questions that will left unanswered for a while....At this point I would say no.....Money controls the world...Money is power and the power is in the hands of Al Green....and Al Green has everyone locked in to deep in an all or nothing economic relfation for them to say boo.... So at this point in time, even though he knows the sheeple are gonna loose it all again, ( imo they have too keep the wealth divide widening ) he keeps levering up and piling it on then getting more backers to make even bigger bets before they cash out,,,,Imo, his vision is total control of the worlds markets and he's conducting wild economic expiriements because Al Green knows he has the power to make what he wants to happen occur...for now.... As for his outcomes, he won't live to see them anyway and given his core beleifs....he will just go black when his days are over anyway...or at least thats what I assume he beleives....thus this is a man who doesn't care about consequences... Say what you will, he and his cronies are probably the most powerfull men in the world from an economic standpoint and the world does what we say or they go bust with us. All the global chips are in the pot....There is too much at stake.....In many ways it almost appears to be a form of silent blackmail... We are the global Buffalo Bob's of the world standing over every country pulling the strings any way we want putting Howdy Doody in any contorted position we want. We'd contort and twist Howdy's cowbiy boot up his ass if it meant more power to the matrix. You don't play by Al Greens rules now,,,,you lose.... He has everyone over a barrell due to the fact everyone is in too deep now...It's a universal bet and it feels real good right now...Like a shot of global heroin.....A flashback only everyone is addicted to gaming... So from the chimps standpoint, what better way to prove the 2000 really "wasn't a bubble in his mind"...Create a bigger one..Thus he can say he wasn't wrong and it is different this time....This man doesn't care what happens any longer so why not "expiriement" further...Maybe he "wants" to destroy everything monetarily in the world around us so we can issue a sole currency of fiat confetti..This is one big game to him,,,I don't know anymore.... This may be way out there but I beleive that we are witnessing the destruction of the global stock markets in unision. Maybe the way stocks, bonds and currencies are traded will be controlled by governments or maybe right now it's one big last final fling. Could be that all economic history books will be tossed in the fire and burned for good.....Harvard may be teaching the art of Moral Hazard in ten years to future investment bankers and ceo's.... I think we will see some form of eventual global monetization, government owned stocks,,,,At one time one of my freinds used to rant the market is going to zero....Effectively at some point, maybe not in our lifetimes, I think some won't exist or be open to only a few if this explodes much higher.... As for the little guy, I can't imagine them "wanting" everyone being rich....It's not how our system works...See: hamsters on the wheel.....Maybe this is the final great big wealth transfer to the elite before democracy changes into a different form.... From a simplistic look at things ....I have doubted for a long time the views of the Dents and Wollenchuks ( and still do ) vs. the Flecks and Nolands but if I had to choose which one is going to be right and which one will be wrong at this point in time ,the scales are heavily tipped towards the first group. It's black or white..red or green..numbers and symbols...prepetual motion until it ends.... We'll just have to see but I think we are the crossroads of something that will shape the way we live..an inflection point of some sort and though short term will be good for speculators in paper and bouncing lotto balls, long term will have deep seeded ramifictaions for the future of our country and our kids....the way we live...my reasoning is due to the fact that the stock market has become a weapon..A weapon of defense, a political tool, a power play, an economic driver, a status symbol, a neccessity, a mindset....The mania has overpowered everyones way of life,,,the good and the bad.... I'm not sure what happens here but if there is a 'long" term future this will flame out this year, probably no later than May or June......if this continues straight up without a pause blowing though the old highs and continues unabatted, the way we live, the way everyone perceives things, whats important to the average joe will change.....the "risk" of fall out from that failure will be so devastating that new measures or means to keep it breathing will "have" to be created....for the good of the rich elite...Or maybe they will just own us.... I was just scanning some charts and there are hundreds of former mania allstars scatterred in the money heaven graveyard with nothing but air above them.. Simple sheeple logic will be stock "prices" are cheap relative to the mania highs, they can buy a lot of shares, and they feel the coast is clear because the fecal matter thats stinking up the bottom of barrell "survived the crash"....What do they do ? Who cares....I had several people mention Nortel to me and Lucent and comment how cheap they are....They see 4 and 6 and feel the "number" is going to get bigger......everything else is insignificant... Right now fundamentalists are pissing into the wind.....In reality they have been since 1995...will anyone ever know what anythings truely worth anymore ( See Templetons the stock markets broken comment ) ?.....fundamentals may as well be lumped in with a Harry Potter book... Waste of time...When was the last time outside of gold stocks or energy stocks someone mentioned "valuation ? Many of those I respect and read are underestimating this and have been for a several months.. I actually find the opinons tiring....Also if they will eventually be right what if it's in two years ? As for tech stocks, it reminds me of the movie "Gone in 60 seconds"... Crapvision should have done a segment today for this basket of floating turds called.... "Research in 60 seconds"... You have 60 seconds to make your buying decision.....Contestants on your mark, get set....Go.... The "buying" guidelines....are revenues going up at least 1 % and moving to the right, are you forgeting two years ago ? if not you must disregard immediately.... are losses decreasing or the one penny in earnings gonna be 2..better yet, going from a loss to a one penny Q is considered stellar... Is the CEO a good carney barker or a bad one ? ( Junipers CEO litterally wet his pants with glee when they made 4 cents vs. a guy like McNeely who is the whipping boy of wall street cause he speaks truthfully is the example of CEO who challanged the mania mentality of the shills ).... Is the company typically "defended" by bullhorning shills if it screws the pooch ..will they move the guidance year two notches over to the right for a favored symbol out to 2007/2008 earnings? I think everyone now knows its game on....Everyone knows this is frothy, everyone knows stocks are nothing but numbers and symbols again, everyone knows the market is a joke again, and every card carrying herd member, Fed head and government official wants their mania back....many bears are now bulls because they remember... bears havn't won in months, not even bread crumbs. Three day bear markets have been condensed into three hours.... As far as the herd goes in general...They are so numb, apathetic, brainwashed and dumbed down to whats going on around them, they will remain lucky and clueless passengers on the ride up until this blows up again....then they will wonder what happened and once again say they were "wronged"... the next time I have no sympathy for them...They have a second chance to repair their mistakes.... If GW mentions putting SS in the stock market during The State of the Onion, no telling whats gonna happen this week.... The difference I find with Stoolie posters vs. the rest of the world is we all know there will always be a caveat... the fact that some sliver of "temporary morality" will surface from the inner depths of this "Nightmare on Shortsellers Street" punishing the reputations of the rot infested wall street gluttons who's bulbous craniums grace Bulls and Bulls every saturday morning.....they "knowingly" will rob the coffers of the sheeple so the process can be repeated at a later date, retirement dreams and education goals not withstanding .... in this free for all crack addict environment, everything can change with one event, in one day, and at any time...no reason is needed...we know parabolas all end the same way and major tops can extend...what we don't know is when..in the meantime, respect the insanity and look at things as if they are black and white or "bonery"....There's no shame in being bullish, accepting the free money being passed out as long the environment is understood...What I can't imagine yet is how bad it's gonna be next time this fails.....We obviously havn't ended the mania or bottomed....imo this is still the same old mania.....not one or two....It will be the 'mindset' that capitulates when it ends.... 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wndysrf Posted January 20, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 Another 2.5 billion shares. Now this is one weird candle..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 PMCS @ 23 ah, haven't seen earnings. missed the end of IDS, hope longs here sold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 Gaming SOTUS Market Drifts Up, Sell The News? Your Closing Anals Intraday are now posted. Take a subscribatory, open it and download it RIGHT NOW, along with everything else in your Anals!? 15 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $2.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 I see that Beer RFMD PMCS AMCC QCOM TQNT ALll getting sold now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 what the hell is sotu ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 how soon we forget MMM started this JAm whats it saying now - 5.03 Lots of Top Talk Today The kind you hear at Tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 20, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 Round Tripped after 7 1/2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedAssRev1 Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 what the hell is sotu ? State of the Onion -- oh, sorry, Union Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 what the hell is sotu ? State of the Union (address) tonight by the President. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 RFMD .13 vs .10 exp, rev $193M vs $185 expected MOT .17 vs .13 exp nice to see the selling on the "good" news for RFMD & PMCS - let's see if it can last until morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 SNDK tanking after hours, $70 or so, closed at $72.48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 Are you kidding me? When I saw everyone talking about it, I thought it was the latest hot stock! :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 If GM pension plan is now "fully funded" - Don't they need to sell the great majority of their GM stock to remain so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flockofsheeples Posted January 20, 2004 Report Share Posted January 20, 2004 Are you kidding me? When I saw everyone talking about it, I thought it was the latest hot stock! :lol: no doc that's sohu. go to the bull board to talk about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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