anotherone Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 I know some of u guys are wondering how America will suffer from inflation. Answer is quite simple. Funny money will end up back in America, which will be valued at lower rates. Process is already happening only the Asians bankers are stopping the process. Link Here is the free money Hyper .............. Take care, Going back to population ecology. Malthus expected that a parabolic rise in population would be follwed by a crash or die-off. What happened was that he didn't account for migration from the Old World (Yerp) to the New World. Consequently population followed a sigmoidal or "S" curve for that period. Perhaps we have a similar situation. Greensapn can inflate as long as there are enough places outside of the US economy to absorb it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 ? ? now MH be careful, BAREasster has recently been prone to lash out against ad hominem pokefunnery at his expense. Watch yer back! BTW Who's that at left??? My guess is it's either Igor or Clyde Tolson. HAPPY NEW YEAR! FROM THE DUNG FAMILY SINGERS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 ? ? now MH be careful, BAREasster has recently been prone to lash out against ad hominem pokefunnery at his expense. Watch yer back! BTW Who's that at left??? It's a very socially prominent member of Bare's eating club at Princeton. But if I told you his name, then I would have to kill you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 Market Ends High Detox After Partying? Your Anals Fishmarket Wrap is loaded. Take a subscribatory and download RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 The bears have won, at least if you look at the longer haul. The S&P has an annualized total return of -1%, 3.5%, and 6.8% for the trailing 5, 6 and 7 year periods. A money fund did better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 Christmas Retail Performance? "It's all good" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 This year will go down in history as a rare year where stock market bulls, the Plutocrats, Wall Street Shills, Al Green, etc. got everything they wanted. Federal Funds rates topped out at 1900 basis points in the early 80's why? Because they had reached the maximum potential...The maximum potential... The US is totally dependant on debt inflation... When rates reached their maximum potential there was only one choice at that point...rates had to be dropped to sustain the required amount of debt inflation to overpower debt deflation... "...This process of "debt deflation" (a term coined by the early twentieth-century American economist Irving Fisher) was important in the U.S. deflation and depression of the 1930s..."-Stated by Governor Ben S. Bernanke Before the Economics Roundtable, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California July 23, 2003 What is the required amount? the FED has an idea, they don't know, but they have an idea and they also have the power to raise or lower federal funds... In 2000 rates reached 650 basis points which was the maximum potential and again there was only 1 choice to sustain the required amount of debt inflaton needed to overpower debt deflationary forces... They have been lowered to 100 basis points... Now if rates were dropped that much in the early 80's that would be an equivelent drop in the space of a year from 1900 basis points to 300 It took 12 years for that 1900 to 300 basis point drop from 81 to 93 From 2000 the main drop took less than a year and a total of 2.5 to get where we are... That is why "they" got what they wanted...But unfortunately they are almost out of getting what they want points... The required amount of debt inflation needed at this point of the 40 year lie you depend on for existance is obviously beyond your ability to comprehend or even beyond your ability to want to comprehend... The effects of lifelong exposure to the just think positive religious cult... Do you actually think if I were to die or disapear the "Hypertiger scenario" would not happen? It is not my scenario it is the basic mechanics of the system, I'm just trying to inform you...Instead I get the what are you smoking statement directed at me... It is not my scenario it is how the world worked before I was born, it is how the world works now, and it is how the world will work after I'm dead... Nothing will stop me from having the last laugh...Nothing... As Good ol' Gerorge Bush Sr. said "This is not a threat, This is not a boast, That just the way it's going to be" I'm looking forward to 2004 because everyday is one day closer to the last laugh... That is unfortunately where we are headed...economic doomsday...eventually the multi-Trillion debtdollar Gypsy acid queen chamber will run out of debt inflationary herion to keep you all sedated then the real fun begins... But I'm sure if I was a riverboater I would think differently also...I'm not though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calculus Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 Where is the Bare these days? Has he secretly eloped with Igor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calculus Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 It is not my scenario it is the basic mechanics of the system, I'm just trying to inform you...Instead I get the what are you smoking statement directed at me... Tiger Chill out man, I think you'll find that most including myself are certainly not questioning your tobacco. Also remember the saying as I'm sure you do, 'He who laughs last laughs longest' And try saying that quickly after a few beers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 Feedfool, excellent link, thanks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
An Ant Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 MGS posted following link to Peter Eavis's article on TSC (free site). He seems to be junior HT. http://www.thestreet.com/pf/markets/detox/10134346.html Do we have anyone countering HT's or Peter's scenario ? I know this is a bear site but I doubt all of them agree with doom. Being a bear could only be from trading perspective. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellowstone Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 Great year end summary Mark- you're in a class by yourself Thanks to you and Doc and all those who contribute here Happy New Year to all, including Bare I'm violating one of the club rules...........Scotch on the rocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted December 31, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 Hypertiger: Nobody is goading you about what drugs you might be taking. The absurd keeps getting more absurd with respect to market dynamics, credit bubble dynamics, and fear/greed dynamics. So we must maintain our sense of humor in the meantime. Nobody knows when the mo-mo train will stop. Might be Friday. Might be 2005, 18 months from now. For now, we have to assume that your scenario will play out. However, we must also assume that things can get more absurd until that time. 13,000 Dow? 1600 S & P? 7000 Nasdaq? Fed Funds Rate at 0% for the next 5 years? Elimination of cash interest, all new loans are "payment in kind" where interest is merely tacked on to principal? Anything can happen. If you read Fleck's Mania Chronicles, you will see that the market basically laughed off 5 consecutive rate increases by Al Green in 1999. Every time Al raised rates, the market participants said "Eff You" and the Nasdaq went up 200 points. Why couldn't that happen in 2004? Al Green raises rates, dollar bounces, now suddenly higher interest rates and a strengthening dollar is "good for the economy", etc. etc. and the market continues in Meltup Mode. Credit Bubbles always collapse in a Gravestone Spiral. But for now, as long as Credit Spreads plummet, FRE and FNM are making new highs, junk bond issuance remains at a record, and stocks keep moving higher, then we must assume that the uptrend remains intact. So far, Greenspan's Experiment is working, since the collapsing dollar has had virtually no effect on capital market liquidity. We'll get plenty of notice when things start to unravel and liquidity starts to tighten. We should wait until then before doing too much Endzone Cheerleading about the impending collapse where we can see Mo-Mo Monkey jump from his window. But the market is not ready yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 Do you actually think if I were to die or disapear the "Hypertiger scenario" would not happen? It is not my scenario it is the basic mechanics of the system, I'm just trying to inform you...Instead I get the what are you smoking statement directed at me... It is not my scenario it is how the world worked before I was born, it is how the world works now, and it is how the world will work after I'm dead... Nothing will stop me from having the last laugh...Nothing... As Good ol' Gerorge Bush Sr. said "This is not a threat, This is not a boast, That just the way it's going to be" I'm looking forward to 2004 because everyday is one day closer to the last laugh... HT - Nobody ever thought you were smoking weed...just wishing I was after reading your post. Your efforts are GREATLY appreciated by all of us. The Fed is feeding credit inflation rather than fighting it. It is not on the radar screen yet of anyone I talk to...Mark knows the psychology of the kind of "investors" most Stoolies talk to daily, and defines it perfectly in this thread on a daily basis. Many bears have made money listening to him this year. Your posts explain the logic of what is to come; Mark's mock the illogic of what is. I have never seen a website with such dynamism; even PruBear when mannfm and The Professor posted daily in 2001 wasn't this good. My thanks to all the posters here for illuminating a world of finance and investing which is not my workaday gig. May you (and we) all have a prosperous New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 Hyper has it right. The statists and fascist central planners shot their collectivist wad in '03. They put all the chips on the table and spun the wheel hoping it would gain traction and bail them out. Didn't happen and all they did is sink deeper into the mud. Now we get 24/7 cheerleading trying to convince everyone that life and the future have never been better. They may make it another quarter, but then, the sheepsters will start to wonder why they aren't experiencing the glorious economic boom everyone promised them. POR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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