Yaryman Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 Can someone explain the logic/insanity Jim Cramer is using here. From today. "When personal computer prices are cut, you immediately should think about only one thing: how much higher the Intel estimates on the Street are going to have to go....Now, with Dell announcing a price war, I suspect that the $1 (Cramer's Intel earnings est. for 2004) will go to $1.20. At $1.20, you still can buy Intel and make good money, although I think that estimates will have to go still higher for the stock to crack $30." http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jamesjcr...r/10109455.html PC prices have fallen consistently for the last 3 years, yet sales do not pick up. So Dell cuts prices again, what changes? Why does Intel suddenly sell more CPUs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 The volatility indices are way low, with the QQV and VXN having set alltime record lows within days of each other just days ago. That has coincided with major tops in recent years. The VXN has been back-calculated only to 1995. An 8-year low is important, for sure. It doesn't give perspective on how much lower it could go. The VIX (back calculated to 1986) bottomed out at about half of its current level of 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 The VXN has been back-calculated only to 1995. An 8-year low is important, for sure. It doesn't give perspective on how much lower it could go. The VIX (back calculated to 1986) bottomed out at about half of its current level of 20. Those lows where reached during a Bull market. The HIGHS in those indicators most likely, have not been reached yet. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 When and IF they ever drive the latter-day Pharisees money-changers FURom The Temple at Broad and Wall, they won't get as far as the town center - if there are lamp posts around. We're a 'long' way FURom that. Why, the SHOW TRIALS haven't even started.......yet. The Pharisees controlled ritual in the temple in ancient times. Look all this blather about next year or the year thereafter is just silly if SNOT UDDERly ridiculous. No one knows what the future holds. The prognostications aren't worth the paper their printed upon. Duzn't SMATTER who is makin' 'em, either. What cycles, a year or two ago, predicted we would be here, now, FUR example. And BARE means FURom at least one full year ago? or two? BAREass, Dude! lol. I could put up charts that would compile about half this threads daily content exhibiting the top in 2000.....or any top in modern history for that matter. Stool, and the Hurst methodology rocks! The market can't make a single zig without our man Stool all over it, in advance yet. ...but there is no need to clutter such a fine thread as this with redundant things, therefore I will put up one chart that gives me an idea of where we go, looking forward, before the 6-month cycle is finished with its silliness: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudFox Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 Signs of a top: "CLOWN FILLED ZONE - Sorry, no bears allowed" on SI "All bears will be destroyed in the coming liquidity driven lovefest....and they can't post here either. " Anyone who knows SI knows the orginal CFZ, not that they were ever as clued in as stoolies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 Speaking of the VIX: It was at similar levels in March '02 and pundits were dismissing the significance. Check out the link - pretty sure it points to their free site. TheStreet.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 "Super-exponential power-law log-periodic function" say down from here. Tsunami effect. Great chart, Budd. Log charts always make things look more sensible, that's why you don't see 'em on Crapvision. Increments based on % rather than a fixed interval. Volatility and acceleration stage. GF - puts are cheap. Buying time is as cheap as shorting the underlying, if you're so inclined. Lots of "arbitrage-like" possibilities based on time valuations alone. Eg. (bear/buy side): $40 underlying index,buy 10x 35PUT MAR04, 10 x 45CALL DEC03, 5x PUT40 OCT03. You win if VIX increases 25% in next month, if VIX decreases 25% your call profit will balance your put loss (not a recommendation, consult your financial advisor, blah blah blah, haven't even run the numbers). The principle is somewhat similar to trading the convexity/spreads of the time-yield curve in the bond market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 The Market Is Not Manipulated Your Anals Fishmarket Wrap is loaded. Take a subscribatory and download your Anals RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 Why acnat I thpo like normal people? Very rustrating, ai cna asshenrt you. I can[t wahti unbtil they make compujer you can talinto that will tyope what you say. without errores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob_Boberson Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 PC prices have fallen consistently for the last 3 years, yet sales do not pick up. So Dell cuts prices again, what changes? Why does Intel suddenly sell more CPUs? Unit sales have picked up. Prices have been cut in half. You can buy a perfectly adequate brand new computer from Dell for $349, assuming you keep your old monitor. Intel won't make much on that PC, nor will Dell. Microsoft will do ok until software is free (within five years). Even after that, Microsoft will do ok selling crap like MS Project and collecting advertising dollars from HotMail (ha ha ha). I don't think that will justify a market cap north of $100 billion. This is from last February - http://netscape.com.com/2100-1103_2-995560.html 73% of all desk top PCs went for under $800. It's probably closer to $600 now. It constantly amazes me that Dell can continue to grow both the top and bottom line. I don't thinke they can keep it up much longer. The idiots in Round Rock think HPQ is competing with them in PCs. I think HPQ is just trying to keep Dell out of the toner cartridge business where they make all their money. HPQ will be perfectly willing to race Dell to the bottom in PCs. Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 10 More Days *** $9.99 Red Tag Sale *** (plus...FREE SHIPPING) ========================================================== >> Over 25 TOP Titles - ALL $9.99! + >> FREE SHIPPING on orders over $29 Scroll through the list of Bestsellers ? ALL just $9.99! Add NEW titles like "Intra Day Trading" by Jeff Cooper to your cart while ? WE SHIP IT FREE! Go here NOW (Before they?re all GONE): .......................................................... Over 25 Red HOT titles - ALL less than $10 (quantities are limited!) Red Tag Sale items include ... >> Spread Trading reg. $40 now: $9.99 >> McMillan on Options reg. $69.95 now: $9.99 >> Proven Chart Patterns reg. $64.95 now: $9.99 >> Precision Profit Float Indicator reg. $69.95 now: $9.99 >> New Option Secret reg. $65 now: $9.99 >> How For Ex Markets Work reg. $19 now: $9.99 >> Options: Personal Seminar reg. $23 now: $9.99 >> Trading Markets Guide reg. $29 now: $9.99 >> Strategic Inv over 50 reg. $16.95 now: $9.99 >> Option Trading Tactics reg. $99 now: $9.99 All an AMAZING $9.99 ? while supplies last ? PLUS - Shipping is FREE. Add NEW titles like "High Performance Options Trading"? while WE SHIP IT FREE! Shop NOW: Go here NOW here NOW (Before they?re all GONE): (Save on the "Options Trading Forum" ? scroll down) ========================================================== HURRY: The $9.99 Red Tag Sale - ends soon! Go here NOW (Before they?re all GONE): ========================================================== ********************************************************************** Sign up for the ... (Early Bird 30% Savings - Start NOW!) 3rd Annual OPTIONS TRADING FORUM Oct 12-14, 2003 Chicago, IL (FREE Book for attending + Mock Trading at CBOE) Click Here ********************************************************************* 14 top EXPERTS in Trading 2 days of Powerful workshops Proven strategies for profiting Live mock Trading at the CBOE & An ALL STAR ROSTER that includes ... ====================================================== ==> JAMES BITTMAN, CBOE expert, gets the "Hall of Fame" award ==> LARRY CAVANAGH's top Option Spreads strategies ==> PRICE HEADLEY on 7 Essential Rules for success with options ==> RICK LEHMAN on Covered Call Writing ==> LEN YATES & Cashing in on mispriced options ==> LARRY McMILLAN's tips for leveraging volatility Plus ... ** David Nassar trades his account - live! ** Trader's Hall of Fame Award banquet ** And, the Special Event ** DR. "J" Najarian leads Mock Trading LIVE at the CBOE (Open to FIRST 120 ONLY), hosted by the CBOE Visit the site TODAY ... Click Here Sponsored by: The OIC * The CBOE * OptionsXpress * PTI Securities * Wiley ============================================================ $9.99 Red Tag Sale ends soon ? Bestsellers ALL under $10 (while supplies last) + FREE Shipping on orders over $29 Email this link to friends & Go here NOW FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS: This offer cannot be combined with any other offer, including but not? limited to group discounts, catalog discounts, or other email? specials. *All domestic orders over $29, shipping not included, are? eligible FREE cost cutter shipping . Cost Cutter ground shipping only? in the domestic U.S. only, may take up to 10 business days for? delivery and is not trackable. Regular shipping applies to orders? under $29 (shipping not included). 1 set of free items allowed per? address & per email address. THIS OFFER EXPIRES 9/1/03 at 11:59 PM? EDT, and is available by Internet only - phone, mail or fax orders? will not be accepted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 Coincidentally, I happened to notice this potential set up that jives with my previous chart. What the heck, stranger things have been known to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 A handful, a freakin handful- SledDog, TE, Fokker and Fox and Summoner have it right. Look at todays charts, any index-they are as BEARISH as they can get. Da Boyz blew out the shorts on the boner run to 1009 and this thing fell like a stone down a well. The rest of the day was spent putting a pretty Smiley face on the minute gains. Bob Carvers target for a top was missed by 4 points, Sornettes target was hit, ditto Prechters. Now the debate lately has been will we go down to 980 or so and bounce one last and final time (the favored view) or will we waterfall into the depths non-stop. Well those who push the first view feel we bounce at 980 and top the final time at 1008-1015. We hit 1009 today that along with the record low fear indicies and the technical shape of this market suggests to ME-that the latter view must NOW be taken seriously. There is far, far to much complacency out there and even on this thread. As to the Economic reports they are so massaged they have to be ignored. Laugh of the day " I will balance the budget-without raising taxes" Ahnold Schwarz-egger! Californicate is doomed! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted August 21, 2003 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 Sinclair warned everyone to sell their gold stocks yesterday. He says gold will go to $340 first before going to $400. Major correction in the HUI possible, although 155 should hold. So far, most of the gold stocks held up. SIL got smashed on huge volume, so I dumped it. Maxxi: What was the volume on the XAU and HUI today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 21, 2003 Report Share Posted August 21, 2003 Great. I am now receiving over 500 emails an hour infected with the sobig virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.