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Yep...Brisbane, same here.

 

I tell relatives and friends to reduce or completely get rid of debt.

 

Keep money in guaranteed low risk accounts.

 

Keep a little gold and/or silver around for a rainy day.

 

Instead, I look like a raving lunatic. They borrow more money on their homes, they buy gigantic SUV's and 40k+ 300 hp sedans and completely ignore me.

 

They go on vacations to timbuktoo, buy electronics at 0% and live it up.

 

This has been a very frustrating year. I warn my friends and co-workers that the stock market is way overvalued but I am still ignored. My grandfather (lived through the depression) listens. My sister listens. No one else.

 

I will say this much though... I have noticed that people are working more and more hours to keep up the lifestyle. And, with the debt binge, people are working more hours just to make the credit payments. Even at 0%, the debt needs to be paid.

Martialcomp - I guess nobody likes anybody pissing on their parade.

 

A few stoolies have voiced similar concerns on previous threads about trying to warn their friends and family. IMO you'd be better if you kept your opinions to yourself for the time being. I've burned some credibility by being right on dogma but premature on timing.

 

Put into context that your audience may not be receptive to your message. Consider that you will be completely turning over their model of life and the future - Analagous:to someone being Fugly: It hurts like hell being told straight out they are but they'd rather be lied to and told they are beautiful instead.

 

Like Politics and Religion, I've found it better to keep my opinions to myself unless asked (Funnily enough, 2 work collegues who knew I did investments asked my opinions about buying gold which then stemmed into a 1 hour lesson in Stool investments 101. They were like me 1.5 years ago - Disillusioned and hingry for invementment knowledge but not knowing where to go next.)

 

If I look back at how I've come to this site, I remember reading some controvercial material that opened my eyes to the longer term bearish case. I remember there were times when I was profoundly upset by what I was reading as it was so depressing. The more darker points gave me some sleepless nights as I reflected on its impact but eventually, I got used to it now plan for it.

 

So to come back to you friends. It may just be that they need their own time (and illustration of real events) to see for themselves. Experience is a great teacher. Don't teach them if they are not ready. :mellow: I still take opportunity to see if they are ready for some heritical investiment ideas but don't try to preach it. Timing is key.

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From comments area:

 

Barrett said Intel is "in the middle of upgrading and buying a substantial number of PCs and we see some other examples around the world that that is happening."

 

Barrett should check with his CFO. From Intel's Q2 Conf Call 7/15/03:

 

Chief Financial Officer Andy Bryant said Tuesday that the company isn't seeing any evidence that a corporate replacement cycle for computers is occurring.

Bryant noted that Intel has restarted a program to provide Intel employees with one home PC each. He said the program should be completed by the end of the year, with most of the costs coming in the third quarter. Intel had put that program on hold in 2001 as the company cut nonessential spending to address the downturn.

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for reasons that i cant divulge (seriously), i have experentially realized tonite that this whole edifice called "US Society" is collapsing, the point of no return has been passed. This Market is only the rotting veneer.

 

out of it all may come a re-kindled spirit of self-sufficiency. but im not counting on that for a few decades, and ill be dead by then. until then, brothers...none of us yet have a clue what is REALLY in store for us.

 

i got a job and a business, and i'm very thankful tonite for both of them.

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for reasons that i cant divulge (seriously), i have experentially realized tonite that this whole edifice called "US Society" is collapsing

Hey, pass de' reasons to da' left hand side bro!

 

Save a little for later, enjoy what you can now before this thing Hypertiger's out...

(or Doc wakes up and comes down on us with rule#5)!

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After I got to Doc's post I started to hit the delete key. It's simple! If you don't want your messages deleted stop insulting people regardless of what they've written. Their post will likely be deleted when a moderator gets to it if it's even borderline. There is no longer any margin of error. We are talking minimum mandatory sentencing here. No one, bull, bear nor mule will be exempt or immune. Address the issue, not the issuer. We want this to be a fun place for an exchange of trading ideas and toilet humour. If you want personal vendettas there are other forums on other sites to cater to you.

 

On another matter, time is running out for the BearZone. No participation. So if you like what you see over there it would be best to contribute as there is no way I'm going to waste my time posting to myself and maybe the occassional lurker. I harbour no grudge in this matter and was always aware that it might not catch on before I got bored with it. Such is life.

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... I'll go so far as to say you'll have to put up with me for another 5 to 9 months at the very least...

 

When this pile of shit implodes it will be grim beyond belief... Every man woman and child in the civilized world depends on this pile of shit for their current existence.

I'm looking forward to reading your future posts leading up to doomsday and will be the first one to congratulate you on an awesome market call if or when it happens. I guess it won't do much good to be short in such an environment because everything will vanish into thin air, right? Only thing that will save you and me from digging ditches is owning physical gold and silver :)

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Guest yobob1
What is the opposite of " Wild cornered animal" stage?

 

Is it bears capitulating?

 

I for one, sold my house 2 yrs ago for $750000..it is now worth $1.2 million.

I downsized my business whilst everyone else expanded madly...now everyone else is raking in the bucks and i am only performing modestly(who said never expand your business during a boom anyway?)

I feel that i am 3 yrs behind everyone now and have started to try and ramp up my business..just upped my yellowpages spend by 800%,started a Radio campaign costing $80k per annum,just hired some more fulltime staff and am thinking of buying some more trucks(that will be the real sealer..adding fixed costs) and guess what type of business i own?

A furniture removal company...i downsize right at the beginning of the biggest real estate boom in years..can you believe that..its almost uncanny...companies that arent anywhere near being in the same league as me, kicking ass, whilst brainiac here sits around waiting for the world to end....i see nothing but good times here in Australia..you cannot get a parking spot within cooee of a shopping mall..its unbelievable...even the so called stupid people at the bottom of the real estate chain are literally doubling their money...i hear these stories everyday when people want a quote on moving...i am turning into Barton Fink..i live in my own special hell..aaarrrgh

I have also made the same moves. Sold house last fall - current estimated sale price based on what I see selling in comp areas = no difference. In my case I figured the top was in for my house in my area. So far right. I do not have any regrets. In my case the business downsizing was radical. Inventory now about 1/3 of the "boom" level. Debt =zero. Daily operating expenses now 40% of previous. Bottom line - very little difference. My location and business is vastly different than yours, so what worked for me may not have been exactly the right move for you. I fear however you may now be compounding your problem if interest rates keep ticking up.

 

There is one area I have made huge gains in. Personal time. Perhaps much more valuable than money. I am no longer slaving to satisfy the bankers, insurance companies, and more importantly the IRS (Infurrnal Rape Service). In this country if you're self employed, you make quarterly estimated tax payments. So think about this, You're doing well and then you have to make larger estimates which is in essence increasing your "income" as you draw ever increasing cash out to make your estimated tax payment. It is a vicious upward spiral. Not easy to break. However when you do get the spiral reversed (has taken me three years), the downside can be really good. My quality of life has improved, stress levels are hugely lower, and my personal cash flow has improved.

 

As to Hypertiger's scenario and time frame, I give it 50-50 odds right now. Extend the time frame a little and the odds go up. These little computer bugs (and blackouts) are a warning to all of you whose money is in the digital world. What happens when you wake up one morning and find out the internet is down and ameritrade's (pick the financial of your choice) computers and backups are wiped, Where is your money? Did you ever have money? Can you prove it? Did you ever actually own shares of GG? Where are they? Did you ever see them? All of these trillons and trillions of dollars are mostly theoretical dollars in digital land. Try trading your Ameritade statement for a loaf of bread.

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FRB and the mechanics Noland describes (banks circumventing the reserve requirement totally via money market intermediation) are just two aspects of the same problem - creating dollars out of thin air regardless whether the corresponding transaction being financed is economic or not. Stand back just a bit and to me there is absolutely no difference between these two mechanisms. If we instead used the term "too many dollars" instead of "FRB", people on this site might get along a lot better.

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FRB and the mechanics Noland describes (banks circumventing the reserve requirement totally via money market intermediation) are just two aspects of the same problem - creating dollars out of thin air regardless whether the corresponding transaction being financed is economic or not. Stand back just a bit and to me there is absolutely no difference between these two mechanisms. If we instead used the term "too many dollars" instead of "FRB", people on this site might get along a lot better.

I don't agree.

 

A central bank printing money and FRB are two different things.

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