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B4 The Bell Frieday September 17


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 07:15 AM

:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

Ben "The Printer" Bernanke at the Fed thinks words speak louder than actions, especially when you have the Bnak of Japan buying dollars at a manic rate:

In their study, Bernanke and his co-authors provide hard evidence that the Fed's ability to steer the economy often depends far more on what it says than on what it does with interest rates. Moreover, they say, the Fed's ''considerable-period'' maneuvers had an even bigger effect on longer-term interest rates than previous statements of the FOMC.

''Shaping investor expectations through communication does appear to be a viable strategy,'' Bernanke and his co-authors, Vincent Reinhart and Brian Sack, said. The federal funds rate -- the central bank's main tool for controlling the economy -- is by definition a limited one, since it applies directly only to the overnight loans that commercial banks make to one another. Accordingly, the Fed aims for indirect effects when it changes the funds rate, seeking to influence a wide spectrum of market interest rates.


http://www.suntimes....-fin-fed17.html

Complete Fed Paper:

http://www.federalre...8/200448pap.pdf

Pension Disaster arrives in San Diego:

San Diego is caught in a financial bind, facing the possibility of a bankruptcy filing, largely because of a $1.2 billion shortfall in its pension fund for municipal workers. For years the city has spent money from illusory pension fund earnings, according to the authors of a new report released yesterday.

Yet the practice, which the authors called dangerous, is sanctioned by law in California and other places and is commonplace among cities that offer pensions to their workers. The findings raise the possibility that other communities will face similar financial disasters.


The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Report for the second quarter (warning more than 100 pages) is out. The credit bubble slowed in the second quarter even before the third quarter slowdown in mortgage related borrowing occurred (see page 2 for highlights):

http://www.federalre.../current/z1.pdf

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Good Trading! ;)

#2 DrStool

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 07:22 AM

Countdown Temporarily Halted

Launchpad Constuction Continues

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#3 DrStool

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 07:34 AM

The difference between Clinton, whom I detest, and this gang, is that Clinton's lies were for the purpose of obstructing justice in private lawsuits and white collar criminal matters. This gang's lies are for the purpose of propaganda, public brainwashing and mind control. These are the tactics of Fascist and Communist regimes.

The goal is to bring an end to the republic and install one party rule. In my opinion, because they have gained control of the state legislatures and the courts, they control the electoral process. The public is simply too disinterested, too stupid, or too committed to bullying the rest of us still capable of independent thought, that the battle is lost.

Eventually, as the system continues to decay and the foundation of lies disintegrates, it will collapse into disorder and disarray. Between now and then lies a long and painful decline. It behooves any thinking American to plan for the future accordingly.

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#4 machinehead

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 07:42 AM

In a letter to be published in The Atlantic's October issue, [Dr. Joseph] Price [of Carsonville, Mich.] calls presenile dementia "a fairly typical Alzheimer's situation that develops significantly earlier in life. . . . President Bush's `mangled' words are a demonstration of what physicians call `confabulation' and are almost specific to the diagnosis of a true dementia." He adds that Bush should be "started on drugs that offer the possibility of retarding the slow but inexorable course of the disease."


Source for this story (quoted on a secondary site) was said to be Alex Beam of the Globe ... not sure if that means the Boston Globe or the supermarket tabloid Globe.

Anyway, get your own second opinion ... :lol:
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#5 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 07:45 AM

After reading the list of Bush's accomplishments, I almost threw-up and this might just be my last post since I will probably piss-off every one equally.

I find most pro-lifers are easger to enforce death penalties, endorse the killing of abortion doctors and most seem willing to use our nation's youth as targets in war. Inconsistent at best. (partial birth ban is unconstitutional in that it doesn't even address the mother's right to survive) Am I pro-life? Probably more so than those that declare themselves to be so. I do feel however that abortion is something that should not be dealt with by politics. IMO it is, always has been and should always remain the responsibility of those that created the life to begin with. It is their conscience they must live with.

Successfully executed the war in Iraq and Afganistan? Good God, what planet are you living on.

Revived the economy after 9/11? No, set up the economy for a far more dangerous fall from a higher pile of steaming bubbles.

As to the UN. It sucks IMO. It is ineffective at best and simply reflects the one world ideology to which I don't subscribe. Frankly the concept of large countries and governments hasn't worked out too well anywhere in the past or present. The thought of one ruling body for the entire planet would be a total disaster. Imagine someone in Bejing deciding how many watts of electricity I can use at home per day or what the price of bread should be. If I start seeing blue helmets in my town, they become targets of oppotunity.

Kerry is turning out to be a complete dunce and seems determined to lose. It is sickening that hundreds of millions of dollars are being wasted by our two party system and the best they can offer us is the choice between a loser and a madman. The corruption in our system is beyond complete.

Bearman as to whether he is the greater evil is nonsense. The evil of the Bush administration is well proven, hijacking the Constitution in the name of security, the prez's checkered past and likely illegal actions while in office (lying to take the nation to war would be treason in more rational times) to the disaster in Iraq, Cheneys' links to Haliburton and his "secret" energy policy meetings, Rummies refusal to take any responsibility for anything in Iraq, ... Wolfowitz, ....Pearle.

Where's the evidence of Kerry's evil?

Where on this planet is a place for people who just want to live their lives peacefully without a government constantly breathing down their backs and stealing everything they produce? Nowhere to be found.

It is this that convinces me that we are suffering the "too many rats in the cage" on a global scale. I am also pretty damn sure that one way or another within a hundred years there will be far fewer souls on our little blue orb. Perhaps after we emerge from the next Dark Ages (if you'll do a little checking, you would find they are pretty consistent throughout history in the timing of thier appearance) we might have another six or seven hundred years where people can be people.

To be complete, I need to piss-off the inflationists who believe that the the fed is all powerful. They're not. For years the credit standards have been continually loosened in order to maintain the growth of the credit bubble. I would venture that in the last 4 years in particular that if the old credit standards for home ownership had been followed only 20% of the mortgages would have ever made it past that basic hurdle. Massive amounts of credit has been extended to those who have proven their inability to handle credit. They will default, they always have, which is how they got those lousy credit scores to begin with. The repudiation has begun and will gather steam until it snowballs into something the size of which the planet has never seen. And it will be global, the actions of the fed to date have ensured that. The fed's little puny printing press will be frozen at the bottom of a mile thick glacier of debt. Nobody will want to loan and nobody will want to borrow and so ends another happy financial experiment.

I anybody wants to delete this - feel free.

#6 GregFokker

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 07:48 AM

After reading the list of Bush's accomplishments, I almost threw-up and this might just be my last post since I will probably piss-off every one equally.

I find most pro-lifers are easger to enforce death penalties, endorse the killing of abortion doctors and most seem willing to use our nation's youth as targets in war.  Inconsistent at best. (partial birth ban is unconstitutional in that it doesn't even address the mother's right to survive)  Am I pro-life?  Probably more so than those that declare themselves to be so.  I do feel however that abortion is something that should not be dealt with by politics.  IMO it is, always has been and should always remain the responsibility of those that created the life to begin with.  It is their conscience they must live with. 

Successfully executed the war in Iraq and Afganistan?  Good God, what planet are you living on.

Revived the economy after 9/11?  No, set up the economy for a far more dangerous fall from a higher pile of steaming bubbles.

As to the UN.  It sucks IMO.  It is ineffective at best and simply reflects the one world ideology to which I don't subscribe.  Frankly the concept of large countries and governments hasn't worked out too well anywhere in the past or present.  The thought of one ruling body for the entire planet would be a total disaster.  Imagine someone in Bejing deciding how many watts of electricity I can use at home per day or what the price of bread should be.  If I start seeing blue helmets in my town, they become targets of oppotunity.

Kerry is turning out to be a complete dunce and seems determined to lose.  It is sickening that hundreds of millions of dollars are being wasted by our two party system and the best they can offer us is the choice between a loser and a madman.  The corruption in our system is beyond complete.

Bearman as to whether he is the greater evil is nonsense.  The evil of the Bush administration is well proven, hijacking the Constitution in the name of security, the prez's checkered past and likely illegal actions while in office (lying to take the nation to war would be treason in more rational times) to the disaster in Iraq, Cheneys' links to Haliburton and his "secret" energy policy meetings, Rummies refusal to take any responsibility for anything in Iraq, ... Wolfowitz,  ....Pearle. 

Where's the evidence of Kerry's evil?

Where on this planet is a place for people who just want to live their lives peacefully without a government constantly breathing down their backs and stealing everything they produce?  Nowhere to be found.

It is this that convinces me that we are suffering the "too many rats in the cage" on a global scale.  I am also pretty damn sure that one way or another within a hundred years there will be far fewer souls on our little blue orb.  Perhaps after we emerge from the next Dark Ages (if you'll do a little checking, you would find they are pretty consistent throughout history in the timing of thier appearance) we might have another six or seven hundred years where people can be people.

To be complete, I need to piss-off the inflationists who believe that the the fed is all powerful.  They're not.  For years the credit standards have been continually loosened in order to maintain the growth of the credit bubble.  I would venture that in the last 4 years in particular that if the old credit standards for home ownership had been followed only 20% of the mortgages would have ever made it past that basic hurdle.  Massive amounts of credit has been extended to those who have proven their inability to handle credit.  They will default, they always have, which is how they got those lousy credit scores to begin with.  The repudiation has begun and will gather steam until it snowballs into something the size of which the planet has never seen.  And it will be global, the actions of the fed to date have ensured that.  The fed's little puny printing press will be frozen at the bottom of a mile thick glacier of debt.  Nobody will want to loan and nobody will want to borrow and so ends another happy financial experiment.

I anybody wants to delete this - feel free.

Great post, Yobob. Thanks for going to the trouble.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#7 traderfromhell

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 08:07 AM

My favorite accomplishment of the Shrub is trading SammySosa. This man is a great judge of talent. Just look at the crap he surrounds himself with. Ask the old lady for a bag for me George. The good stuff this time.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 08:24 AM

Yobob...

Decaf.

I loved your rant...and you're not going anywhere!

I share your outrage.

#9 GregFokker

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 08:26 AM

I share your outrage.

So do I.

My uncle, in from Maine for the holidays, a Harvard law grad from 45 years ago, told me that he expected a civil war in the event that Shrub wins.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#10 Hiding Bear

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 08:28 AM

The first GWB admisitration, which seemed to forget from day one that it 'won' with a minority of popular votes, has pushed moderates within the Republican party out of power (for example Colin Powell - soon - and Christy Whitman) or have delagated them to positions where they make photo appearances only and have nothing to say.

A second term backed by a Republican Congress would allow GWB to do whatever he wants and give him a blank check on your savings account. It is a myth that the wars that GWB has started and will start will not be very costly to the average Amercian. Most all Americans haven't even noticed that the Republicans have already put in place a series of tax hikes that will escalate yearly through GWB's second term. Don't believe me? Do you own research then and you will find that reductions in child credits and the increase in the alternative minimum tax rates will bite a majority of Amercians harder each year.

Yes they might resort to pure deficit financing instead of tax increases and run the budget deficit up to a $1 trillion a year. That leaves the question of who will finance that amount yearly. Actually no one or country can - there just isn't that much surplus savings in the world. The average Amercian will either pay higher taxes directly or pay them indirectly as a loss of purchasing power through the coming inflation and devaluation of the dollar - a scenario where incomes will fall sharply behind the rate of inflation.

#11 Mars

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 08:29 AM

Yobob1 - good.

Nobody leave. We truly need both sides of the argument here.

But as far as one-world is concerned - we already have it. Because all currencies (except the Chinese) are irrevocably linked to one another on a sliding scale that no government anywhere wants to see get out of balance we have one-world whether we like it or not. In that context it doesn't matter whether it is euro, pound, franc or a buck. They are all the same. Once your money is just like everyone else's money then you have a single, irrevocably linked economic system.

#12 machinehead

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 08:32 AM

To be complete, I need to piss-off the inflationists who believe that the the fed is all powerful.  They're not.  The Fed's little puny printing press will be frozen at the bottom of a mile thick glacier of debt.  Nobody will want to loan and nobody will want to borrow and so ends another happy financial experiment.

Boy, are you callin' me a Fed worshipper? :angry: :lol:

It's not that they're so powerful. But as far as I can see from the experience of other countries that have hyperinflated, Gresham's Law ("bad money drives out good") does apply.

You would think that when price inflation went over 100%, people would have rejected local currencies in Argentina, Brazil, Yugoslavia, etc. and gone to dollars or D-marks instead. But no -- they hoarded the 'sound' currencies as stores of value, and spent the local confetti on necessities, no matter how fast it inflated.

For reasons that I don't fully understand, sheeple seem to accept 'legal tender' currency very readily. It doesn't have to be forced down their throats.

You can see this going on today. Mugabe's bankrupt gov't in Zimbabwe is hyperinflating. A relatively sounder currency, the ZAR (South African rand) is available right next door. But domestically, Mugabe's hapless victims keep spending those Zim dollahs in the domestic economy.

I can't explain it, but it consistently happens. Even weak, bankrupt third-world govts encounter no problems hyperinflating, even when the sheeple see them unloading bales of fresh paper off of flatbed trucks in the street. Apparently 'greed' ensures that someone will accept that currency, even if they know it's depreciating.

Here in the World's Only Superpower, the Treasury/Fed will accomplish the inflationary miracle invisibly, with digital money, so the illusion will be even more effective.

Why would they have any problem out-printing the defaults? That's what politics is all about. :mellow:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#13 rog

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 08:32 AM

Sealed Air (SEE) warns this morning taking earnings down to $2.60-2.70 from 2.80 - 2.90.

SEE makes bubble wrap and other packaging materials. They claim the shortfall is due to a 90% reduction in beef exports. I say BS. Beef isn't ten percent of their business and no corraborating evidemce can be found in the major beef processors or packaging comps.

This is the kind of warning that reinforces my view that the economy is slowing down rapidly. SEE makes their money off high-end packaging; static protected bubble wraps and foams that protect high-end tvs, computers, furniture etc. If they aren't manufacturing then they don't nedd packaging.

#14 traderfromhell

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 08:33 AM

We have one currency. It's called Gold. Get some for yourself. Pick up the weak sister while you're at it. Might be the only acceptable currency down the road. Silver.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#15 KeyboardProspector

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Posted 17 September 2004 - 08:36 AM

After reading the list of Bush's accomplishments, I almost threw-up and this might just be my last post since I will probably piss-off every one equally.

yobob1,

Seems on this board you are singing to the choir. How come the 'Public' doesn't see this?

I see the Buch-Sheney signs popping up around the neighborhood and think to myself WTF? Don't these people have minds of their own?

Maybe that's why Bush has support, Just like Georgie, everyone wants Karl Rove to think for them..... :ph34r: :shocked





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