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Karl Denninger on Kudlow tonight


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with a nod to the T/A vs. fudgementals debate this past week, Swenlin's latest:

 

Bottom Line: The violation of the head and shoulders neckline has proven to be a bear trap, and my opinion is that the rally from the March lows is resuming. My upside price target is about 1200 on the S&P 500. I have to say that this doesn't make any sense considering what I think I know about the economy, which is why I try to ignore fundamentals in favor of the charts.

 

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotlite.../090717_rr.html

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Next week probably depends on short covering, the banks and being overbought. So the market probably needs "new" money.

 

The ministry of truth should probably have more "better than expected" lingo in the tube. We know that IBM is about "cost cutting" and not real growth.

 

Wells Fargo will not be allowed to break 22. When it does, then LOB.

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with a nod to the T/A vs. fudgementals debate this past week, Swenlin's latest:

 

Bottom Line: The violation of the head and shoulders neckline has proven to be a bear trap, and my opinion is that the rally from the March lows is resuming. My upside price target is about 1200 on the S&P 500. I have to say that this doesn't make any sense considering what I think I know about the economy, which is why I try to ignore fundamentals in favor of the charts.

 

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotlite.../090717_rr.html

 

Well said but.....

 

Let me back up first. Doc's work has been flashing this message a long time.

 

Back to but. The violation, if it even is that below 960, is minor. It's two out in the bottom of the ninth, down one with a man on base and the pitch is on the way, for the Bear hitter. (Is it Larry Bowa or Ryan Howard?)

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When I look at the ES daily chart, nothing has happened. We're still in the fun zone. It looks like price wants to test the recent highs again. If price stalls though, I'd be looking for a bearish price pattern. The ten year weekly chart is looking pretty bearish . . . any strong break of last week's lows and yields may be set to test 4% again . . . the short rally in treasuries seems to be over :ph34r:

 

And FWIW, another trader I know that specializes in volume spread analysis says that there appears to be accumulation going on with uncle buck . . . could another ramp up be in store for bucky in August . . . hmm

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Vinyard Bank, Windy's old lending nemesis that funded all kinds of garbage construction loans in SoCal, was taken over by the FDIC yesterday.

 

It was another busy Friday for the FDIC with four bank closures: one in Georgia, one in South Dakota and two banks in California. The Georgia and South Dakota banks were little-known, small banks. However, the two failed banks in California, Vineyard Bank and Temecula Valley Bank, were sizable with each having over $1 billion in assets. I've posted on these banks several times in previous years for their competitive CD rates. My last post on Vineyard Bank was in August 2008 when I reported on the consent order issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. My last post on Temecula Valley Bank was in December 2008. I reported on a San Diego news article on the bank which described how the bank was seeing its nonperforming loans soar throughout 2008 as home builders failed with their new projects.

 

linky

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jickiss is back!

 

 

 

jickiss is back!

 

 

and

 

well, your jickiss picked up, a short (y) time ago, a Sunday Early edition Sunday July 19, 2009, Philadelphia Inquirer Newspaper, you know, the famous "Inky," anyway, it says on the front page that at least 2,000 CITY OF PHILADELPHIA City workers and their "Spouses" are past due on their RE Taxes, including more than 1,000 who are more than two years behind.

 

the article also splains that in Philadelphia, more than 100,000 properties are considered to be technically delinquent....and that sum, (that the City is "owed") amounts to $425 million, not counting any, as yet, unpaid 2009 tax bills....

 

your jickiss wonders if this situation has counterpart matches in Kali. Does any body know what happens in, for instance, SFO, when RE taxes are not paid? How about LA? Do they have Sheriffs in Kali that sell houses that have huge RE tax Balances outstanding?

 

Of course, taxes are for the little people, it has been said. It has also been said to Live Free or Die, so maybe these matters are merely the indication of the so called Vanguard.

 

OK, jicki, tell us your point....Easy, the point is "Weimar." Why should you pay, when somebody else will Print and Pay for you, soon enough.

 

and, of course, IBM common shares. If any can thimk back in time, your jickiss raised the STILL UN-ANSWERED QUESTION of the Weimar Run, the Run that would carry IBM to 200 or 160 or whatever, you fill in the blanks...

 

here is a chart....for the Record, your jickiss says IBM reaches the last high, and then heads south, but that remains to be seen. Is the last week in IBM impulsive, or just another Boyz Trick?

 

These are taxing times, indeed, at least for some, no doubt.

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Reporting from Sacramento -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ordered a large reduction in the fleet of state vehicles Friday after an audit revealed that possibly thousands of state workers have been given government cars to drive home at night without justification.

 

The number of employees reported with take-home cars has increased up to 20% during the last three years, according to records obtained by The Times. The state allows 8,662 workers to have such cars, costing taxpayers tens of millions of dollars amid the state's financial crisis, the records show.

 

The trend in the private sector has been to reduce such perks, said Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn.

 

source

 

This is only making a minor scratch on the surface of all the government fraud here in California. The financial abuse is systemic.

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Reporting from Sacramento -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ordered a large reduction in the fleet of state vehicles Friday after an audit revealed that possibly thousands of state workers have been given government cars to drive home at night without justification.

 

The number of employees reported with take-home cars has increased up to 20% during the last three years, according to records obtained by The Times. The state allows 8,662 workers to have such cars, costing taxpayers tens of millions of dollars amid the state's financial crisis, the records show.

 

The trend in the private sector has been to reduce such perks, said Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn.

 

source

 

This is only making a minor scratch on the surface of all the government fraud here in California. The financial abuse is systemic.

 

They could probably cover over the abuse with a little tax on green shoots

"the sheer scale of the overall pot economy has some lawmakers pushing for broader legalization as a way to shore up the finances of a state that has teetered on the edge of bankruptcy. The state's top tax collector estimates that taxing pot like liquor could bring in more than $1.3 billion annually." http://finance.yahoo.com/news/California-s...set=&ccode=

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