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Inexplicible Random Fluctuations


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More globetrotting Fed Jawboning out in force today.

 

Any wonder how and why the market didn't completely fall apart?

 

More reassurances and soothing comments from Mr. Poole....

 

Excerpts from today's WSJ:

 

Fed's Poole Says Market Turmoil Doesn't Indicate Slowing Growth

 

By STEPHAN KUEFFNER AND MICHAEL S. DERBY

 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said Friday that recent market turmoil doesn't suggest that growth in the U.S. is stalling.

 

"We do not see a recession coming," he said. Further down the road, "obviously, there could be a recession," but consensus estimates see real growth in the neighborhood of 3%, that being a "sensible, rounded-up number," Mr. Poole said in a speech delivered at a conference in Santiago, Chile.

 

Mr. Poole, a voting member of the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, also said that surging energy prices aren't likely to spur an economic downturn either. "Energy supply shocks are disruptive, but they need not create recessions," Mr. Poole said. "Although an outside shock may be the catalyst, or trigger, that creates undue inflation pressures, the fundamental problem is not the catalyst but the powerful and risky brew of an overheated economy," he explained.

 

"Maintenance of low inflation over a period of several years or more is achievable whatever happens to oil prices," Mr. Poole said.

 

The central banker didn't see any cause for stock markets to drop much below their current levels, since equities aren't overpriced by historic standards. "At the present time, stock market valuation does not seem to be elevated, certainly not as it was at the end of 2000," Mr. Poole said. "We don't see the accumulating evidence that would justify ongoing market declines."

 

Greenspan Not to Blame for Market Drop

 

Mr. Poole said it was unlikely that this week's market disturbance was caused by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's remarks Monday, in which he said a recession was possible later this year. Given Mr. Greenspan's long experience, "I would never ignore what he says," Mr. Poole said, but "I find it hard to believe that his comment alone was responsible for the market decline." He added: "I think it was one thing among a number of things."

 

Mr. Poole said the causes of such market moves were often hard to pinpoint. "A professional economist can say 'it's inexplicable random fluctuations, we don't understand,' but it's hard for journalists to say that."

 

Mr. Poole also addressed concerns about the Japanese yen. He said so far, there are no signs that the yen carry trade is unraveling messily. Recent strengthening of the Japanese currency against both the dollar and the euro has raised concerns that a reversal of this hugely popular trade -- in which investors borrow cheaply in yen to buy higher yielding assets -- may destabilize financial markets.

 

"The issue is whether [these carry trades] would be unwound in a very quick and disruptive fashion," Mr. Poole said. "So far as I can tell, there may have been a little bit of movement in that direction but nothing that I would regard as being disruptive at this stage."

 

...........................................

 

Well there you have it.

 

The usual parade of Fed govenors..............

post-184-1172868375_thumb.jpg

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4:08 Paulson wants more U.S. exports to China

4:08 Paulson critical of trade protectionism in U.S.

4:08 U.S. economy transitioning to sustainable growth: Paulson

4:08 Paulson urges flexible Chinese currency

4:08 Paulson says economy 'strong' in radio interview

post-184-1172869790_thumb.jpg

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NFI closes at its 52 week LOW....sweet.....maybe a $5.00 stock by next Fri.

564827[/snapback]

 

I think Doc mentioned ZERO in a couple of weeks. :lol:

564833[/snapback]

 

Yeah, looking at the chart right now. I see good support at that level.....$0 :rolleyes:

 

How about a bankruptcy filing next week after they spend this weekend figuring out that they are pro-forma BROKE

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More globetrotting Fed Jawboning out in force today.

 

Any wonder how and why the market didn't completely fall apart?

 

...........................................

 

Well there you have it.

 

The usual parade of Fed govenors..............

564815[/snapback]

 

 

That sounds like a glass-is-a-quarter-empty approach to me. The Fed tries to jawbone everything higher with their infamous "words", fail miserably, yet you are disappointed that the market didn't go down MORE? After the past 4.5 years (has it really been that long?!), hey, I'll take it! Just wish gold would have held up, but whatever. Those people who put money into the trashury market this week are the ones who are going to be REALLY sorry...

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Company has the tenacity to build its brand, the vision to build new products, the intelligence to not to short-sightedly commit to pension plans they can't cover.

 

And then they get dinged.

 

____________________________

 

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070302/toyota_backlash.html?.v=3

 

Toyota May Face Backlash From Congress

Friday March 2, 3:30 pm ET

WEEK'S BUSINESS: Toyota Could Face Heat in Congress Despite Growth and Success in U.S.

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- From a high school auditorium near the birthplace of Elvis, Toyota was greeted like a hometown hero this week when it announced its eighth vehicle assembly plant in North America.

 

Students cheered as the automaker showed off a Highlander sport utility vehicle that will be built starting in 2010 at the $1.3 billion plant near Tupelo, Miss. Gov. Haley Barbour called Toyota Motor Corp. the "world's premiere auto manufacturer," and Sen. Trent Lott, the Senate's No. 2 Republican, promised "when you are in our constituency, we are warriors on your behalf."

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NFI closes at its 52 week LOW....sweet.....maybe a $5.00 stock by next Fri.

564827[/snapback]

 

I think Doc mentioned ZERO in a couple of weeks. :lol:

564833[/snapback]

 

Yeah, looking at the chart right now. I see good support at that level.....$0 :rolleyes:

 

How about a bankruptcy filing next week after they spend this weekend figuring out that they are pro-forma BROKE

564837[/snapback]

 

Forget ye not that it is possible to be an on-'going concern' in that biz for quite a long time....

 

big.chart?symb=fnm&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=1899&style=320&time=18&freq=9&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=3004&mocktick=1

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NFI closes at its 52 week LOW....sweet.....maybe a $5.00 stock by next Fri.

564827[/snapback]

 

I think Doc mentioned ZERO in a couple of weeks. :lol:

564833[/snapback]

 

Yeah, looking at the chart right now. I see good support at that level.....$0 :rolleyes:

 

How about a bankruptcy filing next week after they spend this weekend figuring out that they are pro-forma BROKE

564837[/snapback]

 

Forget ye not that it is possible to be an on-'going concern' in that biz for quite a long time....

 

big.chart?symb=fnm&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=1899&style=320&time=18&freq=9&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=3004&mocktick=1

564843[/snapback]

 

There's a difference. A couple actually. FNM has over $700 billion in other people's liabilities on the books, and the world's largest institutions hold a like amount of Fannie's debt. Institutional holders of NFI can sell. Institutional holders of FNM can't, lest they start a run on themselves.

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More globetrotting Fed Jawboning out in force today.

 

Any wonder how and why the market didn't completely fall apart?

 

...........................................

 

Well there you have it.

 

The usual parade of Fed govenors..............

564815[/snapback]

 

 

That sounds like a glass-is-a-quarter-empty approach to me. The Fed tries to jawbone everything higher with their infamous "words", fail miserably, yet you are disappointed that the market didn't go down MORE? After the past 4.5 years (has it really been that long?!), hey, I'll take it! Just wish gold would have held up, but whatever. Those people who put money into the trashury market this week are the ones who are going to be REALLY sorry...

564840[/snapback]

 

Good to see you Sarcastro. :)

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