Guest Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Can anyone come up withe some valid forensic reasons for the mortgage lenders to do anything other than drop from here? Ten Year Yield: http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...=INX&ref_rate=0 NCEN: http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...=INX&ref_rate=0 MTG: http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...=INX&ref_rate=0 CFC: http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...=INX&ref_rate=0 LEND: http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...=INX&ref_rate=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 ...Careful with the Kerry factor.... players beginning to price in what would happen to the deficit in case of a Democrat winning in Oct.... What do you mean? Could you please explaine? Will Kerry make it worse or better? Whats that got to do with the stock market? I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 John Law II, Bernanke, Fukui, all have proved to be bigger than the markets. Congratulations. Yes but they have not proved to be bigger than the economy (the real economy). And it will have the last word, in its own way. Probably a million man march of jobless on DC. My take is that if number of jobless people goes more and more up there will be revolution. These days jobless are only seen (more or less) in the old fornicateed up areas of the inner cities. But when the jobless syndrome resches white suburbian american then the shit will be cooking. In germany we have around 4.5 million jobless people, thats only the offcial number. When it will be 10 million then the society will implode. The job market of these days is so much in trouble like never before. The unskilled people cant get no jobs no mo, because there is no need for them, mostly thru roboterization and so on. But also there is huge problems for the middle class. It is like a mantra of the middle class that you must only learn, be good in school, go to university and then you will have a good job. But thats no mo guaranteed, 30+ years ago it was. Every time in history when the middle class was in fear to become lower class there was trouble. The whole thing is based on class appreciation: Grandpa was a farmer, daddy worked as a normal clerk in the bank and son goes to college and makes his MBA. After he finished college he gets a good well paid job. But what does the child of the son in the future? This chain is broken. Maybe society and people will adjust to the fact that the following generation doesnt get better and higher paid job then the generation before, but i doubt this will go on without huge trouble for the western world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Errrrr... I think The Street is looking at those huge weekly and daily reversal formations in the USD Index, Euro and Yen.... and gold/gold shares of course. I'm preparing for a continuation of the unwinding of the most overcrowded trades in almost 20 years... Too many USD shorts al over the place.... in the Chicago Merc we had a 19 year high in Long Yen / SHort USD positions.... same goes for almost anything that is inversely correltaed to the USD.... even if we only get a modest unwinding of these positions, those trades are just so overcrowded at this point that it could get ugly. In any case, The Street is already talking about the USD decline being in its final 5th wave of its current decline.... we could get a significant upwards correction before the downtrend resumes.... Careful with the Kerry factor.... players beginning to price in what would happen to the deficit in case of a Democrat winning in Oct. I think it pays to be a bit cautious here. i agree completely. A close in euro belwo 1.23 is the key, there is so much stuff in the 1.23-1.24 area if that doesnt serve as support then the "correction" will get far bigger. Also the Kerry thing is worth to mention. Do all of you really think that those twin deficits go on forever? I mean why not, but at least to think about that it may not go on forever is worth thinking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howl Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 The Yen is done. Gold is hanging on a thread. The Euro is still in sideways territory. It looks like the long-awaited reversal is happening. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 If twin deficits will be reduced there is no basis for the dollar to drop more. Thats what Sudaca meant. The twin deficits is THE key argument of almost all dollar bears. Look at the dollar index chart someone posted above. I mean if that chart would be inverted wouldnt you all say "woooohahha, what a top formation". I say if the necklien breaks there is doo doo time. This will be free money on the table. Like Sudaca said one of the biggest and most overcrowed trades of the last 20 years - short USD - will be officially over. When did the market send a clear sign? Yes. You heard it here first. If you wanna make money, lsiten to those who have insde info. Listen to BARE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearHugs Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Careful with the Kerry factor.... players beginning to price in what would happen to the deficit in case of a Democrat winning in Oct. I think it pays to be a bit cautious here. Sudaca, the odd thing is, in recent history, deficits seem to be bigger under Republicans than Democrats. (Though at this point in time, I don't think anyone can fix it) Was assuming that is what sudaca meant - Dem = smaller gov't deficit, stronger USD. I'm sure you are right. Unfortunately I'm so myopic I tend to only think in terms of the stock market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Thanks FxFox for the explanations... Where I draw a complete blank is when I try to envision what the stock market would do in case the dollar rallies from around these levels. It's almost a no-brainer (famous last words in trading desks around the globe) that the golds could correct some more, but the stock market ? I dunno... These days I'm trying to ignore traditional inter-market relationships and just try to see correlations during the last 12-18 months. If a weaker dollar was "good" for the stock market, gold, High Yield and Emerging Market bonds, then maybe they will all correct together, since they are all about as overcrowded as they ever have been. Emerging market bond spreads are at or slightly below Asian Crisis and Russian Crisis levels, sentiment is off the charts bullish there, too. US High Yield spreads are right there, too.... supposedly because of the famous "Balance Sheet Repair they've been through, which of course will be proven wrong when liquidity dries up (which it will, inevitably at some point). I was reading some Street research, and on of the big houses was commenting on how every macro trade on the planet is positively correlated at the worst possible time.... I can only say, how true, how true... AMG Data, the firm that tracks mutual fund flows, recently showed that inflows into equity mutual funds , on a 4-week moving average basis, were at the highest they've been since....... yes, you guessed it....ladies and gents... MARCH 2000... which was a grrrrrreat time to buy stocks...NOT In a nutshell, I think what I'm trying to say is that in my opinion, currency movements have been the KEY determinants to different asset prices in the last couple of years... and something may be changing there that could alter the outlook. BTW, that USD chart also shows some positive divergences, with the MACD and RSI making higher lows as the USD made lower lows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Too many USD shorts al over the place.... in the Chicago Merc we had a 19 year high in Long Yen / SHort USD positions. How does this compare to the long USD/Yen short position of the Japanese central Bank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ags Nightmare Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 (REUTERS) Broadcom files $750 mln in mixed shelf with SEC WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Communications chip maker Broadcom Corp. <BRCM.O> on Friday filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to periodically sell up to $750 million debt securities, Class A common stock and preferred stock. Weren't they out bullhorning earlier this week...I like they way they slip a shelf in there on a Friday after hours... Ag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Too many USD shorts al over the place.... in the Chicago Merc we had a 19 year high in Long Yen / SHort USD positions. How does this compare to the long USD/Yen short position of the Japanese central Bank? Good point.... of course, it's massive. Pity I can't post a chart of it, but trust me, it's impressive. My comments were aluding only to the speculative arena, in which I do not consider banks or central banks. Just using CFTC jargon, the "specs" are up to their eyeballs in a short USD position, and the "commercials" are extremely long to compensate... But it's the spec community's liquidation that usually drives the major swings (but not the trend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 My point is, that the Japanese central bank has the ability to moderate any USD/Yen move, and probably will. http://www.jsmineset.com/images/t-hold3.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howl Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Too many USD shorts al over the place.... in the Chicago Merc we had a 19 year high in Long Yen / SHort USD positions. How does this compare to the long USD/Yen short position of the Japanese central Bank? The neckline was broken, the Yen has to go to below 100. With its deminishing returns, the Yen intervention is going to fail. That's what all the speculators think. If the Japanese only had to intervene to support the trade surplus, they would not need to borrow and print so much money. Most of the intervention is just to battle the hordes of speculators. And a record speculator short position has not been able to crack the Japanese intervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Too exhausted from watching all the hysterics today. Wndy, active traders had to feel like they just spent a night in the county jail with Bubba and Bruno today... Looking at TASR's intra day action it probably fully funded 1000 1 year olds college tuition at Harvard in future dollars, caused 8000 divorces, sent 10000 to the suicide hotline, fully bankrupted 5000 stopped out sheeple who were in at 65, increased sales of Phillips Plasma 42 inch tv's 50 fold at Best Buy and allowed 6000 people to pay cash for 750k home's in Stonebridge in the span of 6 hours.... Ag Too exhausted from stopping myself buying miners... the extreme sell out of POG made it tempting to play a bounce but it's too much babysitting again... coast is not yet clear... AG( funny lines below)... wish it was me who TASR made an instant millionaire for buying 500K condo cash!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Indexes are not ready for a cliff dive, could be a bullish consolidation in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.