Many of the Dow components have a similar pattern to GS they rallied into early last year then got stuck in either sideways or slightly ascending channel price action, this is definitely NOT impulsive behavior. They are at all either at top or bottom of their respective channels but all sitting on their 200 DMA's with 50 DMA's also below or close above. All primed for the potential of a combined break down!
45 replies to this topic
Posted 26 March 2014 - 09:28 AM
HGX broke important TL support and almost has completed its FR/FF of second wave up of this giant double top.
Posted 10 April 2014 - 08:47 PM
Things have been a bit more tolerable for the bears lately but not enough cause to come out of hibernation yet (even though it is Springtime) COMP leading the way as usual with techs, biotechs, and mo-mo turned no-mo.
I think it is a given we make this final move down to 4000 probably sooner than later. That will complete a FR/FF or in other words complete retracement of the last major impulse up in FEB. This is obviously bearish. However looking at the structure of the move down unfortunately from an EW perspective is just a larger degree corrective move against the secular bull. It is clearly in its 7th wave, 7 wave moves are corrections not impulses as you would expect if larger trend has shifted to bear. Now if we are lucky it will rally a fair size wave up one more time and then make final move down to make a 9-wave impulsive move. But the other thing is this structure reveals substantial overlap of every wave down by its following corrective wave with an overall expanding triangle appearance, again this is NOT what supposed to happen if larger trend has shifted. If I am wrong and 4000 gives along with broadening of the sell off, EW has fooled me and we have "THE TOP" in. But... first thing first, if 4000 areas holds which I expect it will, we could get a rally up to form a right shoulder of a large H&S coming back down to 4000... Very nice from a trading perspective if this happens to top things off. Anyway that's how I see things for now.
Posted 15 April 2014 - 05:25 PM
FRI I bought some XLE for a longer position trade hopefully, looking to add if this last high gets taken out which I am quite certain it will.
Also looking for this to lead what I suspect will now be another leg up in this relentless bull market (but likely the last one, hmm how long have I been saying that, right??) Energy Sector had Top relative strength during this sell-off. Crude continues to inch upwards, and damn gasoline futures hit a new high today since August so no cheap summer driving. Nat Gas remains stubbornly high. At beginning of year I was looking for a general deflationary wave and economic downturn to take crude lower with broad markets but obviously the market is not agreeing so no use fighting it. I've been posting more in daily trading thread.
Simple trading methodology here most of the time; buy strong support, sell strong resistance.
Posted 15 April 2014 - 05:40 PM
Here is my "vision" of the SP entering a 5th of a 5th of C for final move to new highs with a 5th wave extended wave 1 terminal impulse intoend of the month/early May for a theoretical final top.
Posted 24 April 2014 - 05:34 PM
Still looking for SP over 1900 but does not look like homebuilders will be going along. XHB very vulnerable to a break down here, also seeing other cracks opening up during this leg up as I suspected. More charts over weekend
Posted 24 April 2014 - 05:44 PM
Posted 24 April 2014 - 06:01 PM
Transports at new highs INDU should get there soon. Subtle changes in risk appetite during this rally. If this is a giant C wave corrective rally since late 2011 - 2012 as I have proposed, C waves are just like 3rd waves strong and broad with one big exception, they don't have a 4th and then 5th wave of large degree that exhibit a long and gradual topping process, they end much more abruptly with little
warning reflected in market internals.
Posted 01 May 2014 - 05:59 PM
Houston...we've got a problem here.
Yawn...come on SP just a little higher and then lets get this bear growling!
Posted 01 May 2014 - 06:25 PM
Financials, Autos, Homebuilders, Small-Caps, amongst others sitting on their 200 DMA's and haven't done squat in this latest wave up.
Dow and SP showing glaring negative divergences in BPI as they struggle higher...
Watch this bear market unleash just as I get ready to depart for my summer cottage in NW Ontario.
Here is SLY small cap ETF, others mentioned above look very similar, major uptrend line break, now sideways and sitting on 200 DMA or a little above, could be coiling into a non-limiting triangle as the final structure which still means it may be stuck here a while longer before its breaks down.
Notice that whole move up last year was in a well-defined channel and the wave structure is not what you expect in impulse. So this is come kind of complex corrective move the exact wave count is anyones guess but they do often end in triangles (coils)
Posted 14 May 2014 - 05:59 PM
Ho-Hum...still watching potential H&S on COMP. There is a distinct continuation gap sitting right at the .50 FIBO which the H& S projects right down to if the neckline gives... also BPI on COMP continues to point to greater downside risk with increasingly severe bearish divergence.
Posted 20 May 2014 - 09:11 AM
XLF Financials rising channel looks like its about to break down and hasn't really gone anywhere in almost a year. GS, JPM, V just fell below their 200 DMAs
Posted 20 May 2014 - 09:32 AM
Biotechs also consolidating in a coiling fashion. Seems a lot of markets are just waiting around for something really good or really bad to happen. Lets just set the buck at 80. Crude at 100, Gold at 1300, SP 1850, TNX at 2.5 and everybody take the summer off...
Posted 20 May 2014 - 10:31 AM
10 year completed a beauty of a 5 wave impulse, now correcting with a nice orderly 3-wave A-B-C (B-wave triangle) looks like it should end at the .50 FIBO where there just happens to be close to a continuation gap! It could end here since it has minimally completed a return to the impulses wave 4 terminus. Not trading this long here but may go short once this correction completes. Reversal of the secular bull in bonds will be confirmed when it again surges and takes out that orange trend line it just touched demarking the multi-decade downtrend channel in yields.
Posted 30 May 2014 - 07:37 PM
So far 10-year on track for @2.3 area...certainly should not go beyond the 61.8 FIB @21.
I will continue viewing this as the first correction in a new secular bear market for bonds as long as support reverses the IT trend in one of these two areas but really would like to see the first one hold.
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