Guest yobob1 Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 Welcome to B4 the Bell. Headline get your attention? It should because it's real, but believe it or not it's not the US - it's China and that data is since the first of the year. Marshall Auerback has some interesting thinsgs to say about the Chinese and the dollar. As CLSA strategist Christopher Wood notes, ?The official focus in China on removing physical growth bottlenecks, while entirely understandable from the practical bottom-up point of view of an engineer, is without doubt leading to massive overinvestment given the undisciplined nature of the banking system?, a banking system which must be thoroughly reformed before any precipitous moves in the currency markets can be made. ........ .......... But have the Chinese overpaid (regarding Noranda) and does it in fact represent the future? Long-time China observers, such as Simon Hunt, note that China acquired a large range of physical commodities during the 2000-2001 recession (when prices were at rock bottom levels), and have historically been shrewd contrarian buyers. Therefore Hunt casts doubt as to whether this purchase actually represents the start of a significant new trend. He ascribes most of the noise surrounding the purchase (concomitant with the talk of revaluing the renminbi), as symptomatic of the usual speculative frenzy that one sees at the peak of commodity bull markets. Adding to Hunt?s skepticism, he further notes the simultaneous bursting of the housing and automobile bubbles in China, to which the markets have hitherto paid little attention: ?If the USA had seen a 60-70% fall in housing starts between the start of the year and August and a 38% fall in auto sales, markets there would be shaking. And yet markets appear oblivious to the facts. Guess Who?s Coming To Dinner? Doolar, Earl and PMs all off a tad. Make sure to get a front row seat for the jobs report, it ought to be a doozie. Snow was back pedaling, saying Florida will affect the numbers. Maybe he's gotten a preview? Maybe he's thinking about next months polling in Florida? Is he setting it up so that jobs "beat by a penny" ? Does he have a clue about what's really happening in this country? I'm pretty sure that this administration is as clueless about the economy as they appear to be about Iraq. Uh oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 That certainly got my attention,Yobob! Excellent as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 The new Real Estate Bubblewatch.com is off to a good start. Thanks to all who have registered and posted. A permanent link to the site is located above this forum block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 I expect that employment figures will come in worse than consensus. Based on weak retail sales, hurricanes, and only modest credit growth in September, at best we may see only a modest increase in employment numbers (although prior months may be revised due to benchmark revisions). Doctor Copper: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 Look at uncle Earl go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 Foreign central banks were selling t-bones last week http://www.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompany...at001004_newsml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 swing and a miss...96K meet the new boss....JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 96k jobs sept aug revised down mfg lost jobs hurricanes had minimal effect benchmark revisions +268k all way below expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 The "alternative measure" rate of unemployment continues to hover around 9%. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 Market was expecting manipulation and missed by a penny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 Bye bye Dumbia. Bye bye Prime Minister Evil. Don't let the door kick you in the ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 No doubt the jobs number was much much WORSE then published Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 Rick Santelli said Fedheads are "passing the microphone around too much." Maybe that's a euphemism for passing the bong. Gold popped a little after the McJobs number. I'm becoming a one-trick pony like Mad Al -- he prints currency, I buy gold. Unfortunately, Al can't print oil ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted October 8, 2004 Report Share Posted October 8, 2004 Not much for Bush to crow about tonight. High oil prices, no jobs improvement, and wage growth below the rate of inflation. Maybe he won't show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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