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IDS World Markets Wed 4th January 06


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t?s=^AORD

 

 

Another flagpole open...where will it all end? Probably with a spectacular fall out of the rising channel on the chart Foxy posted yesterday ;)

 

All Ords currently +0.8% and frothily green throughout the sectors. Energy and Materials are once again the leaders, +1.7% and +1.6% respectively. The least green is IT, which is flat.

 

Miners have a rocket under them, especially the golds (natch). Newcrest leading +5.9% but Newmont not far behind, +5.5%. RIO and BHP up around the 1.5% mark.

 

Oils also whizzing up but the volume could be better..

 

Da bullz are running in Asia...

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Fx Fox--

 

I wrote a detailed reply to you regarding my analysis of the Vector Vest software program in MTM today. But I notice you are not there any more. Maybe you are asleep or something at this time. I assume you'll be over here some time before long, so I wanted to let you know.

 

I guess the only thing I would add is that VV is in its own universe, blind to what everyone else is doing. It also assumes you are not a skilled chartist, and that you are rather naive in believing that past performance of a "strategy" over a limited time period is highly likely to predict future performance of it. They have an irritating habit of saying "I turned 10K into 50K" when all they mean is they backtested a strategy over a limited time period, that would have resulted in that amount of profit if one had done the strategy during that time period. So in some ways it assumes you are dumb. And yet, one can do a lot of things with this system that smart people might profit from doing also. It can instantly list for you every single stock in a certain category of e. g. volume, or various other categories one might be interested in, for example.

 

Cap

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post-609-1136352765_thumb.png

 

 

Another rising channel: All Ords seems to be specializing in those lately so we'll see if we get el plungo or a consolidation tomorrow. In the meantime it was a big jump today, finishing +0.9%. Telecom leaped into the lead, +2%, thanks to Telstra doing what looks like a dead cat bounce but it could be the beginning of a turnaround. Two sectors closed flat, Utilities and IT.

 

Miners continued to do well: Materials closed +1.9%. The Energy sector dropped back a touch to finish +1.5%.

 

Some big gains over in Asia as well...

 

Stand by for blastoff in Europe:

 

t?s=^FTSE

 

t?s=^GDAXI

 

t?s=^FCHI

 

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

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Oh, BTW, regarding Vector Vest, anyone can go to their site at vectorvest.com and type in a stock name and your e-mail, and get a VV analysis of that stock e-mailed to you, for free. It will let you see the types of categories they use. I think you get 9 total for free. I wouldn't take their buy/sell/hold rating of an individual stock too seriously though, as you won't see how it compares with very many other stocks unless you get the cheap trial. And sometimes they rate some great stocks as just holds, right before they do the Animal Planet liftoff. They usually won't catch any bottoms, and they don't know anything about stocks building technical bases. Stuff has to already be going up for them to like it.

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Capital,

 

tanks very much for the info about VectorVest.

 

Seems that they cant give me more than i can already do by myself.

 

Yesterday i tried thier free stock screen (you can do 3 for free) and they gave me no other signals than i can simply read by looking at my own chart setup:

 

They were long GOOG and short GM :lol: :lol:

 

and even their info that "fair value" (or something like that) for GOOG is 308 and for GM it is 26 is nothing super special.

 

 

See, a concept like fair value or valuation or whatever we wanna call it maybe important and of value for a real money manager (to calculate his risk, or to satisfy a demand of his profession, like that the cant hold more than a cetain amount of "overvalued stocks" or so) but for me as a simple private trader it is irrelevant, because i learnt one thing:

 

A stock price can go into stratosphere regardless of how overvalued it may be. I have seen stocks with an weekly RSI of 90 and more and for over one year and even longer. On the other hand there can be stocks which stay undervalued for years and years but simply never get picked up by anyone.

 

A major point is: Many talk about that all that counts is price, but i have the impression that only a few really get what this means. See, in my Finance course i had to learn that the price of a stock rises when the outlook of future dividends rises. The basic concept is that you pay more for a stock because his future dividend will be higher. This is the theory, but does this explain that GOOG goes from 100 to 400, does this explain the internet bubble, does it satisfy the virtual explosion of crappy little gold miners which CFO's have always one foot in prison? No.

 

I dont say that fundamentals dont count, they do, but how should have anyone traded the internet bubble on fundamentals? Totally impossible. Like GOOG right now.

 

To be or become a very good chartist seems to be enough. :)

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Good Morning!

 

Yesterday's Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Bulk Sale for Stoolies only was a success. Many tanks to the 3 of you who joined the ranks of WSE Pro junkies!

 

Since it worked yesterday, let's do it again! The more the merrier. Today I will extend the hours a bit, because many West Coast people did not see the offer until too late yesterday. So, if at least three readers drop me an email at [email protected] or [email protected], I will send you the details of a DEEP DISCOUNT, RISK FREE subscription offer for the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition.

 

Older Stoolie subscribers need not apply. The discounted rates will not be lower than your existing rate. As long as your subscription is in force your rate will be the best deal in town! I appreciate your long term support!

 

Thanks to all for your support!

 

And yes, there were FIVE, count 'em FIVE! energy stocks in last night's Charts of the Day, which look like they will be top performers in the weeks ahead! There's only one way to find out what they are. Subscribe today!

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I'd like to wish you and yours a Happy New Year, and I want to thank those of you who have been kind enough to actively share your thoughts with us over the last year. You are what makes this board great.

 

Each day thousands of people visit us, and do not make their voices heard. If you have something to say, or even if just you want to ask questions, I invite you to please register for the board and participate! The more the merrier! :D If you do come here just to read, feel free to enjoy the fun and soak up all the wisdom that's here.

 

I want to say a special thanks to those of you who supported our Thank Your Stoolie gift program last week. You can say thanks to your favorite Stoolie (or Stoolies) and help to support Capitalstool.com by clicking the Pooper Scooper button at the bottom of the left column menu and making a donation. The pooper scooper button will take you to a special page on Paypal for the benefit of Capitalstool.com. When you post your contribution you'll find a message box in which to enter comments. Let us know who you would like to send your thank you gift to. Just indicate their Stoolie name. The board has their email address. (Stoolies, make sure your profiles have your current email address. It's the only way I can send you the money.) We will pass your gift along to that person via Paypal, less a small administrative fee to help support the Stool.

 

Thanks in advance for supporting the Stool and the Stoolies who make it such a special place!

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For those who care, Cramer predicts GM bankruptcy - one year after CS.

 

GENERAL MOTORS WILL FILE FOR BANKRUPTCY

 

I know it will come as a gigantic surprise to those who still hold General Motors? stock and bonds, but for GM, it?s time to go bankrupt and start over. I think the company will turn the world upside down with a prepackaged bankruptcy plan that puts its financial woes in the past. Don?t snicker. How do you think our textile and steel industries in this country reinvented themselves? Through the wonders of bankruptcy. Of course, the idea of GM?s filing for bankruptcy scares the hell out of people, including the hundreds of thousands of folks who make their living directly or indirectly off the world?s largest automaker. Even the patricians at the White House, who approach the world from the Scrooge playbook, would have to sit up and take notice if a filing comes.

 

That said, it would be so brilliant?and so obvious, really?for GM to file for a reorganization to once and for all address its legacy costs that I think even this thickheaded management will make the move. Right now GM actually makes decent cars, but it loses money on every one it makes, because GM provides better health-care and retirement benefits than any other company?or country?on earth. If you worked at GM at any point in your life, you must feel like you live in Oz: With a pat-pat here and a pat-pat there, that?s how we keep you young and fair?as we drive the company?s net worth into the ground! Of course, current management is oblivious; it pays out a huge dividend to shareholders even as it tries to plead poverty to the workers. The company can shuffle its voluminous set of deck chairs?its GMAC credit and mortgage operations, maybe its OnStar division?all it wants, but only bankruptcy will solve its problems for good, as the frantic maneuvers just delay the inevitable cash crunch.

 

http://www.newyorkmag.com/nymetro/news/biz...5455/index.html

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