The End Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 14 stoolies, 35 unregistered users? What are you people waiting for. Exchange of ideas should be a need. No question is stoolpid. :grin: And no statement, well almost no statement, is worthless. Join the stool army. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 Fart-As you said you are a headhunter for the in dustry-your bias is showing lad-I would suggest on this next leg down they will sell anything not nailed down! The only answer for Tech is consolidation thru merger or bankruptcy-there is simply too much excess capacity for the small demand that is out there. Rather like the 100+ companies making auto's after Henry rolled the 1st flivver off theline-today there are 3 soon to be 2 after F disappears. Trade Safe! Brian4... Fine, Brian, I'm happy for you if that gives you comfort... I'm in an "over the horizon" radar type of business... in case you haven't figured it out yet, I just might have a special type of insight into the business... given that people still run it, and that's my business... people... but hell, that's fundamentals.. forget it. I gave you the warning, stay short if you like whips and chains on the way down, but after this next bottom, LAD, as far as the SOX index and the chip business... stay out or have yours.... VIOLATED. Now, as far as the charts... I seem to remember that there's been a big, drastic drop in the Nasdaq, and when I look at the SOX, it's even been hit harder...simple math can show you that... and, RELATIVE to the nasdaq the SOX is clearly undervalued, even at these levels, even with business in the tank. This is normal, you have a confluence of the merchant sector, satisfied with capital investment, plenty of capacity, cut back on capital equipment expenditures.... Now, you all seem to like SIMPLE, here's simple math, the $$$ that don't get on capex, flow to the bottom line, as plant and equipment lifecycles expand.... so ya see, it's not all about capex out there in the SOX index, there's a merchant sector that benefits when the Semi Equip guys tank... Equipment gets cheaper too... Enough... Any other questions... Lad? Oh, given my stance publicly on this board over the period of 2002 regarding hitech and semiconductors regarding my bias , that is an insult, you can review my posts if you like. I told it like it was then, and I'm telling you the straight story as it is now, and I don't appreciate the insult. Furthermore, if my insights into this industry are not appreciated, I'll be happy to shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 56% households are still invested in equities and no longer contributing new funds, I ask you this, from where is the greater fool going to come to push prices higher? The greater fools are already in and tapped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 For all you lurkers. The Doors Peace frog. "Peace Frog" There's blood in the streets, it's up to my ankles Blood in the streets, it's up to my knee Blood in the streets in the town of Chicago Blood on the rise, it's following me Think about the break of day She came and then she drove away Sunlight in her hair Blood in the streets runs a river of sadness Blood in the streets it's up to my thigh Yeah the river runs red down the legs of a city The women are crying red rivers of weepin' She came into town and then she drove away Sunlight in her hair Indians scattered on dawn's highway bleeding Ghosts crowd the young child's fragile eggshell mind Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven Blood stains the roofs and the palm trees of Venice Blood in my love in the terrible summer Bloody red sun of Phantastic L.A. Blood screams her brain as they chop off her fingers Blood will be born in the birth of a nation Blood is the rose of mysterious union There's blood in the streets, it's up to my ankles Blood in the streets, it's up to my knee Blood in the streets in the town of Chicago Blood on the rise, it's following me [ www.azlyrics.com ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 I blinked and missed the event. After reading Pile Driver's sovereign strategist newsletter it seems simple to me now. One month ago when arrogant Al Green announced to the world that he would run the printing presses to combat deflation, he created the watershed event for 2003. Right under my nose and I missed it. We are in the early stages of a bull in hard assets, commodities,metals. Forget paper assets. This may be a long period but its clear now. The public and the media are still completely obsessed with paper assets. Thats one reason its so friggin difficult and time consuming to attempt to trade the junk. Its a totally irrational market sector. But metals are not irrational and the bull trend in them is not irrational. I think its becoming less and less productive to game stocks one way or another since squeezes are in daily everywhere, CEOs are committed as much as ever to full time lying and distortion and the Fed is committed to levitating the worthless indexes. I think from here on I will concentrate more on one sector and leave the rest to the gamers. Why bother? Yes ofcourse we could get that massive slide. I doubt it. not at least until February in my opinion. I would love to see it but the risks of gaming wrong are high. I will play in Bearx ofcourse but beyond that and some June puts on the QQQ, why sweat it its a veritable cesspool filled to the brim daily with liars and psychopaths desparate to hang on to their 'livelihoods'. At any rate the political event I was waiting for has already come and gone. It was the Lizard Kings tipping his hand and his concerted attack on the dollar in order to protect his reputation and avoid a Jap type situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 FM, You are too valuable. You have the skills man, no doubt. Can i ask you a proffesional question? If you managed $$$ for people would you buy and hold the sox or would you trade it, thinking it can go lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 Piles, you invited stoolpid questions so here is one: Why is everybody looking at RYVNX (QQQ inverse 200% fund) and not RYTPX (uh, I think that's the symbol for SPX inverse 200% fund)? By the way, I'm pretty short now, though not fully, and I am worried about the glee on the board tonight. Scary -- makes me worry that we are due for one more viscious pop up. Which, if so, will give me a chance to buy....more puts. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 Uh, because they're greedy :grin: . Really, that's my only take, that it should outperform the SPX's slide to hell, I guess. But then it may not...hmmmm. I agree Budda, that's why so far I'm just playing BEARX too and not any individual short picks. Believe it or not, real juicy shorts are just not popping up on the radar screen yet like they were back in Jan-July 02 slide - I'm very picky. That may change as it gets underway but I see nothing now worth going after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 SPX looks like it is in a new wedgee that looks like it may converge on Friday, unless it breaks down before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 The End: Can't blame them. Probably shell shock affecting outside readers, not like the shitpaper or the boobtube is informing any one of what's to come. Even the Fallstreet Joke is a day late with pertinent info. Kinda hard to ask everyone to rejoice in a falling market which fundamentally should be falling anyway. They have to get past the hump of being lied to in general by the government they elected then extrapolate that the retirement system is futile then the bank money they have is worthless then the refi isn't going to help that much when they don't have a job. Bitter pill to swallow. And reading this site is akin to reading Greek without a dictionary. I find relief here but of course I'm kinda weird and like it that way. Just take a man off the street and explain to him in stoolie lango that IBM is a bust, so sell. A few charts, those waves, some current numbers, good luck. Situation might be realized when Californicate begins their new tax system = more taxes on your hard earned dollar and less services in return with no money left to invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 Fart no insult was intended-I simply made the point about over capacity-the only way it will be solved is thru merger or bankruptcy-as to bias we all have them in our particular field it's the nature of the human-you know your biz no question-but knowing your biz can blind you to the cosmic view-I agree after this next move there will be a bounce and i won't be shorting the SOX-but it will take years to work off the excess-Take care and PEACE-Trade safe! By the way Lad is a friendly term better than Fart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 16, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 Buddha: Yep, Al Green has replaced the Oster Blender motor with a nuclear powered version. Never runs out of juice, and it can be run at unlimited speed on demand. All this paper trading is ridiculous. Especially all that massive positioning and hedging that junk debt CDO and CMO paper. Who would have figured that mortgage-backeds outstanding now exceed the Treasury debt? All of it "hedged"? All of it "gamed" for arbitrage profit? If you decide to exit the Arena, hope you don't give up your luxury box seat. We still need your daily blow by blow of the hype, hysteria, and constant Keno gaming...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 If fartpolio's view is negated it's doomsday plain and simple... But I don't see or want to see doomsday for at least 16 or so months... If Gold blows out the massive short position then it will be Apocalypse now... If fart says there is an uptick then thats mileage... how much? enough to be significant... On another board thinly vailed death threats directed towards me have shown up... take it easy... sheesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 Oops bit late with the daily post, got sidetracked with an errand. Lovely red day today and I think tomorrow will go the same way due to a drop off the cliff at open and a long consolidation at the lows for remainder of day. My puts still looking a bit sick so a leg down at this stage is most welcome. Guessing that most people in Oz would have been surprised at the selloff as they have been keenly buying their little parcels believing all the hype their brokers & the media dish out. I think there's a reasonable chance of the downside continuing for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted January 16, 2003 Report Share Posted January 16, 2003 FM, You are too valuable. You have the skills man, no doubt. Can i ask you a proffesional question? If you managed $$$ for people would you buy and hold the sox or would you trade it, thinking it can go lower? TE, make no mistake until it's proven it's still a bear market... Yep, I'd trade it, but you sure need to think about how much confidence you have being short at these levels on the SOX... Let's face it, they aren't going out of business anytime soon... I just think there's better places to be short, especially if you are in it for the long term.... You cannot forget this too, INTC can cut CAPEX, that doesn't mean China will, and none of their expenditures are reflected in the bottom line on the SOX... Keep in mind, by March I think they'll all go lower, probably... You just for sure don't want to wait to cover after the Mar/Apr bottoms per Bradley on this particular sector... But Hell yes, if you are a day trader, there's a fortune to be made on these highly volatile issues.... And no, I wouldn't put my clients into a buy and hold scene on the chips yet.... but on this next dip, I'd say best percentages in about 3 yrs for positive return.... JMO, FWIW... Happy New Year to all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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