Winning The Hearts and Minds?of the Wildebeest?

[GTNWORSE]

Dozer, the point is it's your HOME. It's not an intrinsically worthless piece of paper valued on earning, or the complete lack thereof.

It's a hard asset that people are brought up to value significantly, and to part with under only the most dire of circumstances.

By the way, when I started my working career in banking interest rates were 17% back in 1981. Houses were still selling then and will continue selling if rates move up to the 6.5% level you reference.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

GTN, I agree completely about the emotional attachment part, but I keep remembering that -price- is set at the -margins-. And today's market, in my opinion is NOT at all like 1981. It's funny you mention that year.....that's the year we bought our first house, and yeah, we had a 14.5% mortgage or something hideous like that...

 

Economic landscape vastly different today, and the -spec- component of the market almost didn't exist back then; certainly nowhere near the degree it is today. Specs/flippers might be as much as 5% of all buyers right now

 

They will evaporate virtually -overnight- I think. That alone will be enough to take a 20% haircut imo.

 

I agree that people won't want to -sell- GTN, but that doesn't mean they'll want to -buy-; and all it takes is for -buying- to stop, and the price, set at the margin, will drop like a rock.

 

Maybe you're right, and prices will only be down 20% in 3 years....but I'm just expecting that first 20%, that blowoff peak, to get shaved off the top a whole lot faster than that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

In my opinion we had the blow off peak in April-June, at least here in Los Angeles.

At that time I could have sold my townhouse in 1 day at $719-729,000, no appraisal and no inspection. Today I could "only" get $675-685,000. It would probably be on the market for about 30 days and all buyer contingencies would apply. That price has been stable for the past couple of months, concurrent with an inventory reduction in the $600-$700K price range from 18 units in September to 11 units currently. Most of the aforementioned are P'sOS.

When I came to Los Angeles from the Bronx in 1973 I went with my folks to look at, what I considered to be, a mansion in the very nice area of Cheviot Hills. They were asking $57,000 for it. Of course, having sold our home for $12,000 back east, there was no way my parents could wrap their minds around $57,000 for a home.

Well that home has gone up over the last 34 years, and it's gone down, but it's ALWAYS bottomed at a significantly higher low. Today that home is worth about $1.8MM. Is it worth it? Well to someone who can afford it, yes. Will it go down in price again? In my opinion, yes. Will it drop below the previous low set during the last downturn in 92-95? No way in hell.

[dozer]

that's a pretty convincing argument GTN.

 

i'm not sure I can wrap my mind around the value being maintained like that in the face of a national, even global, financial meltdown; but you may well be right about it.

 

for sure, it's going to be fascinating to see how all this plays out!

[GTNWORSE]

It will be interesting, that for sure!

[GTNWORSE]

Niky down 65.

S&P futures down 2.85

Naz futures down 4.65

Gold down .30cents

[beardrech]

Unless you spend money on maintenance and remodeling and landscaping and furniture and carpeting and drapery and nick-nacks and appliances and entertaining and painting and lighting and paving and repaving and gardening and pool care and slab granite countertops and custom kitchen cabinetry and gas and electric and water and sewer and garbage collection and phone bills and cable bills and satellite bills and ISP bills and widening the driveway for a second new Monster SUV that dwarfs your neighbor's.

 

 

I've tried to tell people for years that the Mortagage Tax Deduction that makes people think that are saving money versus renting is totally bogus, for just the reasons you point out above..the only "advantage" to home "ownership" is that you can do what you like to place...and that is a BIG perk to ownership..but please don't feed me the "I'm saving money" BS...

 

And of course if you happen to be in the right generation you can get some good capital gains..unfortunately, it's prolly gonna be a long time before that's gonna be a winning bet again..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

K Wave

And thats why for the very reasons you cite above I've become relatively comfortable in owning my home---naturally not having had a guest over for dinner since 1963 has proven to be quite lonely;but despite that I would prefer my splendid isolation than being surrounded at dinner by a horde of well-dressed ex-real estate bubbleacious penurious beggars

 

beardrech One economic canon that everyone believes and that I have disproven is "There aint no such thing as a free lunch"---

===Oh yes there is--especially at my house-The table de hote :"A slice of pumpernickel and a three-quarters empty glass of perrier--

[K Wave Rider]

Will it go down in price again? In my opinion, yes. Will it drop below the previous low set during the last downturn in 92-95? No way in hell.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

That's about my target too, the '94 lows for SoCal..but with todays' prices, that would be a 65-75% drop in many cases..not 20%. A lot of prices have tripled or better since those lows..

[GTNWORSE]

Will it go down in price again? In my opinion, yes. Will it drop below the previous low set during the last downturn in 92-95? No way in hell.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

That's about my target too, the '94 lows for SoCal..but with todays' prices, that would be a 65-75% drop in many cases..not 20%. A lot of prices have tripled or better since those lows..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Really K-wave? I bought my townhouse for $236,000 in 1995, ya think it's going back to that price? Then I guess you think the BMW X5 I had to pony up $50G's for last year is going to be selling for what, $25,000. Or how about the price I pay for the food I buy at the grocery store, guess that's gonna get cut by 1/2 or so too.

After all, average earnings will no doubt drop percipitously in the near future. That, combined with the desirability of the climate, schools, and area I live in here in Santa Monica going down the toilet will no doubt insure that your expectations are fulfilled.

But if hell does every freeze over, and homes do drop by that much, I intend to buy as many as my dollars will get me

[wndysrf]

Aloha Riverboaters..........

 

Its warm and sunny here in Maui.

 

I'm sitting in the shade, overlooking the beach, getting ready to watch the sunset.

 

Working off a wireless router from a beach house.

 

Very cool................

 

My friend here is an expert meterologist, and he says a huge shift in the jet stream is underway, which will result in the warmest weather on record in California by mid-December.

 

However, the rest of the country won't be so lucky.

 

An "Omega Block" is setting up and getting ready to drive a huge, super-cold dome of high pressure in northern Canada into the midwest and eastern U.S., which has the potential to plunge temps to record lows thoughout most of the country.

 

I don't know how this will impact the energy futures, but its worth keeping an eye on it.

 

He says this change should take effect in the next 10 days.

 

Notice how Southern Cal just got hammered with a huge rainstorm and record snow in the mountains. As an avid snowboarder, I have been preconditioned to know that after a huge dump like that, the pattern invariably reverses and we get no snow the next 6 weeks.

 

So be ready for a huge change in climatic conditions in most of the U.S.

 

And get ready for a possible huge upside spike in Natural Gas and Heating Oil.........

[beardrech]

Will it go down in price again? In my opinion, yes. Will it drop below the previous low set during the last downturn in 92-95? No way in hell.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

That's about my target too, the '94 lows for SoCal..but with todays' prices, that would be a 65-75% drop in many cases..not 20%. A lot of prices have tripled or better since those lows..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Really K-wave? I bought my townhouse for $236,000 in 1995, ya think it's going back to that price? Then I guess you think the BMW X5 I had to pony up $50G's for last year is going to be selling for what, $25,000. Or how about the price I pay for the food I buy at the grocery store, guess that's gonna get cut by 1/2 or so too.

After all, average earnings will no doubt drop percipitously in the near future. That, combined with the desirability of the climate, schools, and area I live in here in Santa Monica going down the toilet will no doubt insure that your expectations are fulfilled.

But if hell does every freeze over, and homes do drop by that much, I intend to buy as many as my dollars will get me

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

Gtn

Remember that we are anticipating a sigma 10 event whether in slow motion or not-

Sir Alec Templeton,as brilliant an investor as ever lived,has stated over and over again his predictin of an ultimate decline isn RE values of at least %90 --did you read that ??90%---

 

Now why and for what reason would a 90 year old man.with an immensely prestigous reputation near the end of his life and with billions to his name make such a public statement???

 

To impress us? To destroy us? To gain an economic victory over impressionable sheeple?

 

beardrech He may be exxagerating but if so hes to be honored because his interest isn't in being right: its rather to alter economic conduct so that it would disprove his prophecy--and wouldn't that be a proper reward for hiimm:HAHAHA Alec we knew you wer full of it

[Hiding Bear]

Aloha Riverboaters..........

 

Its warm and sunny here in Maui.

 

I'm sitting in the shade, overlooking the beach, getting ready to watch the sunset.

 

Working off a wireless router from a beach house.

 

Very cool................

 

My friend here is an expert meterologist, and he says a huge shift in the jet stream is underway, which will result in the warmest weather on record in California by mid-December.

 

However, the rest of the country won't be so lucky.

 

An "Omega Block" is setting up and getting ready to drive a huge, super-cold dome of high pressure in northern Canada into the midwest and eastern U.S., which has the potential to plunge temps to record lows thoughout most of the country.

 

I don't know how this will impact the energy futures, but its worth keeping an eye on it.

 

He says this change should take effect in the next 10 days.

 

Notice how Southern Cal just got hammered with a huge rainstorm and record snow in the mountains.  As an avid snowboarder, I have been preconditioned to know that after a huge dump like that, the pattern invariably reverses and we get no snow the next 6 weeks.

 

So be ready for a huge change in climatic conditions in most of the U.S.

 

And get ready for a possible huge upside spike in Natural Gas and Heating Oil.........

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Cool. Or should I say very cool.

 

Solar radiation, as would be expected in the approaching low point in the solar cycle, has been below normal lately. I still think we could see below average cold Janaury/February in the Northeast US.

 

Stock up on NG, ECA if it dips, and those Canadian royalty trusts.

 

Tanks Mark. Aloha!

[An Ant]

Niky down 65.

S&P futures down 2.85

Naz futures down 4.65

Gold down .30cents

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Repair Crew on site

[anotherone]

12-0 BABY!

 

Gonna have to go and have some tasty Oranges in Miami

GO TROJANS!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

You're routing for a box of condoms?????

 

And what is that funny looking guy on a horse doing?

[wndysrf]

Here's the weather discussion:

 

SINCE MID SUMMER....THERE HAS BEEN AN ANOMALOUS POOL OF WARM WATER NORTH OF HAWAII AND WEST TO THE DATELINE. DURING THE WARMER TIME OF THE YEAR...THIS WARM WATER WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR CALIFORNIA WEATHER AS THE MAIN THERMEL ANCHOR IS THE CONTINTIAL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, DURING THE FALL, OUR CONTINENT COOLS OFF AND A SHIFT OCCURS TO THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ITS CLIMATIC EFFECT ON CALIFORNIA WEATHER.

 

WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE HEAT SINK NOW ESTABLISHED OVER PACIFIC, AREAS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND COLD SSTS CAN COUPLE WITH THE OVER LYING ATMOSPHERE AND TELECONNECT WEATHER PATTERNS BOTH UP AND DOWN STREAM. CURRENTLY, THE EFFECT OF ONE OF THESE LARGE WARM POOLS "MAY" BE THE KEY POSITIVE SST ANOMALY AT ABOUT 145W NORTH AND EAST OF HAWAII EFFECTING OUR WEST COAST/GREAT BASIN WEATHER. THESE WARM POOLS USUALLY HAVE UPPER RIDGES SITTING ABOVE THEM DIABATICALLY.

 

THIS 145W POSITION OF WARM SSTs SEEMS TO BE TELECONNECTING WELL TO THE PERSISTANT TROUGH OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. THE WAVE LENGTH OVER THE CONUS HAS BEEN BROAD ENOUGH TO ALLOW SYSTEMS TO SPLIT SOUTHEAST INTO CALIFORNIA BRINGING SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. COLD ARTIC AIR HAS BEEN BOTTLED UP OVER CANADA FOR SOMETIME NOW WITHOUT ANY REAL DELIVERY SYSTEM TO SEND IT INTO THE CONUS.....THAT MAY BE ABOUT TO CHANGE BY MID-MONTH OR JUST BEYOND.

 

IN THAT THIS WARM SST POOL HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE KEY TO WATCH FOR IS A SHIFT OF THE WARM SSTS TO NEAR THE WEST COAST. SHOULD THAT OCCUR....AN INCREASE TO THE POSITIVE SIGNEL OF THE PNA WOULD OCCUR AND THE DELIVERLY OF VERY COLD ARTIC AIR TO THE EAST WOULD BE LIKELY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WEST WOULD RESULT AS WELL.

 

THIS BLOCK MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN THE MIDDLE AND END OF THIS MONTH. THIS WOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR CALIFORNIA. IT MAY BE THAT THE CHRISTMAS BREAK WEATHERWISE COULD BE THE NICEST IN SOME YEARS IF THIS WARM POOL OF SSTS MOVES ANOTHER 500 TO 700 OR SO EAST.

 

OUTLOOK: FROM 12/5/04

 

VERY COLD PATTERN FOR MONO COUNTY COMING TO AN END BY MID WEEK AS PATTERN FLIPS AND GROWS COLDER IN THE EAST AND WARMER IN THE WEST. +PHASE PNA TO GROW STRONGER NEXT WEEK WITH A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ON THE WAY.[ LONG RANGE FANTASY CHARTS TRENDING TOWARD MAJOR ARTIC OUTBREAK FOR THE EASTERN US BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ABOUT MID MONTH OR JUST AFTER AND THEN GROWING STRONGER DURING THE 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER.

[PeakOil]

Thanks for the forcast Weather dude & Wndy!

[Jimi]

CAL HAS BEEN TOTALLY SCREWED OUT OF A ROSE BOWL APPEARANCE.

 

THAT'S THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE YEAR THAT THE GODDAMNED BCS PIECE OF SHIT HAS SCREWED CALIFORNIA FOOTBALL: LAST YEAR USC; THIS YEAR, CAL.

 

EVERYTHING IS RIGGED.

 

I AM SO PISSED OFF RIGHT NOW I'M GOING TO BREAK SOMETHING.