DrStool Posted October 12, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2007 Looks like BIIB, Biogen just 17% AH 614880[/snapback] BIIB is 1% of the NDX. The "newsnoize" is that octogenerian billionaire Carl Icahn might be buying BIIB. This has been known for a long time, since Icahn has been accumulating shares. Been a busy day for the corporate greenmailer. He is also in the mix in the BEAS deal, which ORCL put a bid on today. Icahn was also accumulating shares of BEAS and will likely make a counterbid. Oct 12 will henceforth been known as "Carl Icahn Day" across the fruity plain. Gubermint orifices will be closed, parades will be held, and schoolchildren will gather to sing "If I Had a Billion" (to the tune of "If I Had a Hammer") in honor of our nation's most beloved corporate pigman?. 614884[/snapback] Yes, he's a true icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted October 12, 2007 Report Share Posted October 12, 2007 Over on the housing blog site: http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html ?Lenders siezed more than 1,000 homes in Riverside County in August and again in September. That?s more than five times as many repossessed homes as in July and almost 20 times as many as in September 2006, according to RealtyTrac.? ?Just before the bank took possession of a home in northwestern Riverside County, its former owners attacked the walls with paintball guns and smashed gaping holes in them.? ?They ripped out stair railings, banisters and cabinet doors in the half-million-dollar Eastvale house. Then they turned on the upstairs bathroom sinks, put down the drain stoppers and fled as the bank?s locksmith arrived to rekey the doors.? ??You can walk into all kinds of things because the people are angry they are being evicted,? said Lauren Rooney, a Corona agent who inspects homes just after lenders foreclose on them. ?You get people who are really upset at the last minute, and they say, ?We are going to make the bank pay!?? 614877[/snapback] Correct me if I'm wrong, but to the extent that a foreclosed person does this damage, it lowers the amount the lender can eventually get for the property, and thereby increases the size of the differential between distress sale & debt outstanding, and thereby increases the size of the 1099 that the bank sends to the IRS. So, these guys are just increasing their own eventual tax bill on themselves. Which is to say, they had as little understanding of the financial circumstances of their liability going in the first day as they do on th day they exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 The worst thing about Carl Icahn: when his real estate corporation took over Arizona Charlie's casino in Las Vegas, the changed the rules at the blackjack tables. Instead of a blackjack paying 2:1, they now pay 6:5. It's not even blackjack, really, just some corporate raider's idea of a game. What a cheapskate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 Over on the housing blog site: http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html ``Lenders siezed more than 1,000 homes in Riverside County in August and again in September. That`s more than five times as many repossessed homes as in July and almost 20 times as many as in September 2006, according to RealtyTrac.`` ``Just before the bank took possession of a home in northwestern Riverside County, its former owners attacked the walls with paintball guns and smashed gaping holes in them.`` ``They ripped out stair railings, banisters and cabinet doors in the half-million-dollar Eastvale house. Then they turned on the upstairs bathroom sinks, put down the drain stoppers and fled as the bank`s locksmith arrived to rekey the doors.`` ```You can walk into all kinds of things because the people are angry they are being evicted,` said Lauren Rooney, a Corona agent who inspects homes just after lenders foreclose on them. `You get people who are really upset at the last minute, and they say, `We are going to make the bank pay!``` 614877[/snapback] Correct me if I'm wrong, but to the extent that a foreclosed person does this damage, it lowers the amount the lender can eventually get for the property, and thereby increases the size of the differential between distress sale & debt outstanding, and thereby increases the size of the 1099 that the bank sends to the IRS. So, these guys are just increasing their own eventual tax bill on themselves. Which is to say, they had as little understanding of the financial circumstances of their liability going in the first day as they do on th day they exit. 614892[/snapback] people dont give a crap.....their credit is already toast.they could just declare bankruptcy and be a "virgin" again.in 2 years the same stupid bank will loan them twice as much.... and why would banks care,?.....they just sell the next loan or write it off. it only cost me money with the interest rate cuts...only the saver loses in all of this. its damn frustrating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 NEW YORK (Reuters) - About half of all states are collecting less from their sales taxes than expected, which could signal a recession lies ahead as the home market fades. The receding housing boom could then reveal the underlying economic weakness it had camouflaged, according to Philippa Dunne, a co-editor with the New York-based Liscio Report, published by an economic research firm. To Dunne, the recession warning light is flashing yellow. "There are a lot of unknowns, but the state sales tax receipts are pretty much at recession levels," she said, adding about 25 states are seeing disappointing sales tax revenues. Best economy in the history of mankind, but sales tax data don't prove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 Over on the housing blog site: http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html ``Lenders siezed more than 1,000 homes in Riverside County in August and again in September. That`s more than five times as many repossessed homes as in July and almost 20 times as many as in September 2006, according to RealtyTrac.`` ``Just before the bank took possession of a home in northwestern Riverside County, its former owners attacked the walls with paintball guns and smashed gaping holes in them.`` ``They ripped out stair railings, banisters and cabinet doors in the half-million-dollar Eastvale house. Then they turned on the upstairs bathroom sinks, put down the drain stoppers and fled as the bank`s locksmith arrived to rekey the doors.`` ```You can walk into all kinds of things because the people are angry they are being evicted,` said Lauren Rooney, a Corona agent who inspects homes just after lenders foreclose on them. `You get people who are really upset at the last minute, and they say, `We are going to make the bank pay!``` 614877[/snapback] many of the houses i looked at were trashed.one had major flood damage....all less than 2 years old. finally heard from one of the builders today....2250 sf home,brand new,fully loaded,awesome views.... started at 365k,then....... 339k 319k 295k 270k 248k today they called and told me 234k if i close in 15 days i told them forget it.........im gonna wait till blood is in the streets big 25% off "sale"and only a few lookers when i went yesterday..... i feel better in cash 614887[/snapback] You should have told them that due to the deteriorating market you are only willing to pay $165k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snorkels4 Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 "people dont give a crap.....their credit is already toast.they could just declare bankruptcy and be a "virgin" again.in 2 years the same stupid bank will loan them twice as much...." i thought the bankrupcy reform act 2005 changed all that so itd follow to the grave years ago bankrupcy was a sweet deal brother in law made out like a bandit in the 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 "people dont give a crap.....their credit is already toast.they could just declare bankruptcy and be a "virgin" again.in 2 years the same stupid bank will loan them twice as much...." i thought the bankrupcy reform act 2005 changed all that so itd follow to the grave years ago bankrupcy was a sweet deal brother in law made out like a bandit in the 80s 614897[/snapback] im no lawyer ( thats for sure)....but i believe the new law only made changes in just a few percent of bankruptcys....most can still scam at will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 Some guys on a yahoo board have been looking into how CFC has been staying in business: My thanks to sonsin03 for pointing us in this direction. Here's the deal. CFC has announced and has followed through on transferring the subprime crap to its banking ARM (pun intended). What does the that ARM have that the mortgage side doesn't? Answer: Access to the New York FED lending window. So I went back to the date of the announcement for the 'NEW' source of funding. That came out on 9/13...here is the Yahoo! story: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070913/bs_n... So then I went to the FED website and looked up REPO transactions for the days surrounding the announcement. Results: Sept 11: $3.5b in repos 2-day maturity Sept 12: $13.5b in repos maturing on 9/14 (here is the original debt) Sept 13: $5b in repos 14-day maturity Full Details Here EDIT: The original poster followed up and stated that the money is probably from other parties, not the Fed. Still an interesting post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 13, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 NEW YORK (Reuters) - About half of all states are collecting less from their sales taxes than expected, which could signal a recession lies ahead as the home market fades. The receding housing boom could then reveal the underlying economic weakness it had camouflaged, according to Philippa Dunne, a co-editor with the New York-based Liscio Report, published by an economic research firm. To Dunne, the recession warning light is flashing yellow. "There are a lot of unknowns, but the state sales tax receipts are pretty much at recession levels," she said, adding about 25 states are seeing disappointing sales tax revenues. Best economy in the history of mankind, but sales tax data don't prove it. 614895[/snapback] Russ and I were talking about that in our podcasts last winter. This has been going on since the beginning of the year. Russ is the best at ferreting out real data, as opposed to what he calls Ministry of Truth data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 DOH! Sherry and Percy Berquist, who paid $597,000 last year were shocked to see $335,000 set as the opening bid for an identical stucco crapbox to be auctioned. Partially-built houses are being abandoned in developments as builders walk away from a collapsing home market. Homeowners who bought at the market's peak are left to absorb costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeWhee Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 NEW YORK (Reuters) - About half of all states are collecting less from their sales taxes than expected, which could signal a recession lies ahead as the home market fades. The receding housing boom could then reveal the underlying economic weakness it had camouflaged, according to Philippa Dunne, a co-editor with the New York-based Liscio Report, published by an economic research firm. To Dunne, the recession warning light is flashing yellow. "There are a lot of unknowns, but the state sales tax receipts are pretty much at recession levels," she said, adding about 25 states are seeing disappointing sales tax revenues. Best economy in the history of mankind, but sales tax data don't prove it. 614895[/snapback] Russ and I were talking about that in our podcasts last winter. This has been going on since the beginning of the year. Russ is the best at ferreting out real data, as opposed to what he calls Ministry of Truth data. 614900[/snapback] Not uncommon for the markit to go on a frenzied run right into the teeth of a recession. That's when you see a flurry of IPOs and M&A deals as folks hustle (literally) to get deals done before the window shuts down. Remember all the IPOs clustered in the 1Q of 2000? Everyone on the inside of these deals knew the game was all but over, so there was a mad dash to monetize before the house of cards collapsed. Don't know if that's what is happening, or is about to happen, but would be no surprise. Same as it ever was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 Two more charts that aren't looking good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 Here's a cheat sheet to the Market based off the Bernanke Put Cheat sheet: reacting to data and market releases weak data = Fed ease, stocks rally consensus data = lower volatility, stocks rally strong data = economy strengthening, stocks rally bank loses $4bln = bad news out of the way, stocks rally oil spikes = great for energy companies, stocks rally oil drops = great for the consumer, stocks rally dollar plunges = great for multinationals, stocks rally dollar spikes = lowers inflation, stocks rally inflation spikes = will inflate all assets, stocks rally inflation drops = improves earnings quality, stocks rally 614878[/snapback] Wouldn't you say shorty, that if the symptoms are not goldilocks, then they are rallying for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted October 13, 2007 Report Share Posted October 13, 2007 This is a free email that gets sent to me.Its more than the usual snippet but its worth a read.I dont have an actual link but if you go to Newsmax.com,its all there. This guy Max Whitmore has a pretty good recent record.Has anyone followed this guy longer term.He has some pretty high targets for the markets. Whitmore: Bulls vs. Bears ? Who Will Win? Well, this week there won't be any charts and just a little market analysis because I want to talk about an event that doesn't occur often. I think the last time I saw it was in the beginning of the bull run in 1995. That means it has been nearly 12 years since this occurred. And that bull run lasted five years! What am I talking about? Well, allow me a bit of license today and I will tell you. So what's the big play? Well, the bears see the recent assault by the bulls on the Dow 14,000 level as a bad play by the bulls. The bears sensed pushing so hard may have exhausted the bulls, making them ripe for an attack. And, frankly, the bears were right ? for a short time. The market was shaky after its huge twelve month run-up. All it took was the smell of a subprime loan scandal, and the bulls caved. Well, almost anyway. In the end, it turned out, at best, to be only a mild correction. The bears never even got up a good head of steam, despite frightening predictions of a huge drop in the markets and rampant rumors of the end of the financial markets as we know them thrown in to boot. This move by the bulls was a big gamble and it is either (1) going to ignite a sharp drive to truly lofty levels or, (2), as some bears fervently hope, it will have exhausted the bulls so thoroughly that this time the market will really plunge ? big time. Now, if the Dow 14,500 prediction stays on course, here is where the seldom seen play may soon occur. To repeat, this play hasn't happened since 1995! I said back in mid-May's column that I saw this market going to the 19,0000 to 20,000. That still stands. But if this play unfolds like it now appears, it will get there even faster. Why? Because of all of the huge bets that the bears have been making by taking huge short positions along the way during the last 15 to 16 months. That strategy that has now put the bears in a very, very precarious position. Newsmax.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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