DrStool Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 OK, Mark accidently wiped out his article for tonight and had to split. He will rejoin us later this weekend! Take it away Stoolies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 It was a great week for longs ... in commodities, that is. Not so good in the stock 'market,' with T-note yields rising 23 basis points in one week, and stopping right at the brink of another breakout. Plus, alleged 'good news' from Intel last night failed to prop the shares, as sponsors and touts had expected. A/D ratios were negative again, and the total (NYSE + Naz) new lows of 131 was the highest in awhile. This 'market' looks ready to dump. Give it a push! Death to the Naz! Death to the dollar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 Markets closed on the daily up trend lines for DJX and SPX. Monday will tell if they get stick saved one more time or if we're ready to head lower. Some of ST the cycles I follow (8 day and 13 day) look to be ready to bounce early next week, so I'm in wait mode to see what happens. The big players may need to vacuum in some more money before they are ready to let a decline commence in earnest. Monday is a very tricky day astrowise. The second pass of Jupiter trine Neptune is exact over night and the Moon squares Neptune a couple of hours prior to the open. I can think of both price negative and positive possbilities here. I would be watching oil and liqudity related instruments. Of course, we could see a flood or storm somewhere. (Neptune = oil, water, liquidity.) Sun square Pluto is exact around 6 pm and should be effecting the markets for a few days. It could have impact right from the open. It is a highly manipulative aspect that usually manifests as big players taking control of price. We are at critical support and they may decide to push price down trough support, or they may decide that enough bears are short to provide fuel for a ramp up into OpEx. Yesterday we had a New Moon squared by Pluto which sets a manipulative theme for the next 4 weeks (lunar cycle). We may see a lot of head-fakes and big down days followed by big up days. Whipsaw city. On the other hand, they may just decide to bring the market straight down or levitate it by brute force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 Last night in this forum, I was complaining about the Intel after hours scam. I felt like this bull would never end. Now, the day after, I am relieved, satisfied, and teeming with glee. However, I am very disappointed in myself for letting irrational exhuberance overwhelm me. As a result, I will spank myself and deprive myself from watching Crapvision for awhile. This chastisement is stiff and necessary until I can withstand the bullish ridicule from the mainstream without cratering and observe it for the ridiculous comedy that it is. Good weekend all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 Last night in this forum, I was complaining about the Intel after hours scam. I felt like this bull would never end. Now, the day after, I am relieved, satisfied, and teeming with glee. However, I am very disappointed in myself for letting irrational exhuberance overwhelm me. As a result, I will spank myself and deprive myself from watching Crapvision for awhile. This chastisement is stiff and necessary until I can withstand the bullish ridicule from the mainstream without cratering and observe it for the ridiculous comedy that it is. Good weekend all! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I feel the same way. A combination of procrastination and problems with Ameritrade option quotes in the AM caused me to surrender some nice unrealized gains and fail to buy puts after taking the calls off the table! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 Sorry I botched my M2M writeup. Full of juicy tidbits from the HedgeFund world. Had to go to lunch with this hot title rep. Wow, she was really a looker. Just got back in and realized we have a Full Blown Commodity Panic going...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 This is how a real bear market top looks like. Lots of times it looks like its going up. But gaps up end up morphing into a landslide instead. Clothesline drops are mostly bullish. Death by a Thousand Cuts like this Trash Can Lid is bearish................ Notice how the broads are acting just like this now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 Mark: You got any digitals of this looker. Those cameraphones come in handy. I 've gotten some nice shots that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 My short bet next week is going to be BRCM. A measured move to the downside on this consolidation takes it down to somewhere around $20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 9000 HedgeFunds Dryhumped JNPR hoping for a tech run this week. Watch what happens when all that volume that piled in three days ago gets sold in a panic if these lows don't hold...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 That 15 min. of Juniper looks like a classic head and shoulders. Haven't messed with that stock in awhile, may have to put it back in the watch list! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 Here's what happens when a commodity grinds down for 11 months straight and makes multi-year lows, and the HedgeFunds refuse to close out their shorts. Soybeans rocking.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 Close: Renewed inflation fears, spurred by higher oil prices, a wider than expected trade deficit and surging bond yields weighed on overall sentiment, erased early bullishness from Intel's strong outlook and closed the major indices lower for the week... Crude oil futures ($54.43/bbl +$0.89), which were off 1.0% in pre-market trading and contributed to an upbeat bias, abandoned early weakness after the IEA raised its demand forecasts for the third straight month... Daily oil consumption forecasts have been increased to 84.3 mln barrels, 330K per day more than previously expected... Meanwhile, concerns about the Fed's measured pace of interest-rate hikes were heightened following the second largest trade deficit reading ever (behind the Nov. 2004 figure)... The January trade deficit swelled from a revised $55.7 bln in December to $58.3 bln (consensus -$56.8 bln), showing record highs for both exports and imports... While Greenspan noted last night that he is not "overly" concerned about the current account, he remains concerned about the deficit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 Shorted INTC AH yestiddy. Covered today. Bot some NDX and SPX putz at the open. Covered today also. Friggin' PigMen have me so paranoid, I didn't want to leave anything on the table over the weakend. However, I'm encouraged that SARS might be with us for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted March 11, 2005 Report Share Posted March 11, 2005 Close: Renewed inflation fears, spurred by higher oil prices, a wider than expected trade deficit and surging bond yields weighed on overall sentiment, erased early bullishness from Intel's strong outlook and closed the major indices lower for the week... Crude oil futures ($54.43/bbl +$0.89), which were off 1.0% in pre-market trading and contributed to an upbeat bias, abandoned early weakness after the IEA raised its demand forecasts for the third straight month... Daily oil consumption forecasts have been increased to 84.3 mln barrels, 330K per day more than previously expected... Meanwhile, concerns about the Fed's measured pace of interest-rate hikes were heightened following the second largest trade deficit reading ever (behind the Nov. 2004 figure)... The January trade deficit swelled from a revised $55.7 bln in December to $58.3 bln (consensus -$56.8 bln), showing record highs for both exports and imports... While Greenspan noted last night that he is not "overly" concerned about the current account, he remains concerned about the deficit... <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I know what you mean. I have a large deep in the money put scheme with the ndx. Yesterday, I bought some short term calls as a hedge. This morning I dumped the calls for a nice profit and, with grit, continued my put scheme unhedged. It paid off. I still am in the putz. I watch the 15 min. chart of the quad q's and can determine reversals when a bar prints volume in excess of 8 million. It seems the heavier the volume the more reliable. It is like it washes all the buyers or sellers out depending on which direction. The final bar of the day had a volume spike of nearly 7.2 mill, might have a small bounce Monday, though. Looking forward to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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