Charmin Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 "The S&P 600 Small Cap Index rallied today but lacked the volume conviction that investors should be watching for. Without meaningful volume behind the gains it is obvious that institutional investors were not accumulating shares. Those big players have been mostly unloading shares over the early part of '05, and the big red volume spikes illustrate their clear change in sentiment. The number of leading stocks breaking down on heavier volume through key technical support levels has been steadily increasing over the past several sessions. Decliners were outpaced handily by advancers by 22-to-11 on the New York Stock Exchange, and advancers also outnumbered decliners by a ratio of 21-to-10 on the Nasdaq exchange. " Canslim.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 15, 2005 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 "The S&P 600 Small Cap Index rallied today but lacked the volume conviction that investors should be watching for. Without meaningful volume behind the gains it is obvious that institutional investors were not accumulating shares. Those big players have been mostly unloading shares over the early part of '05, and the big red volume spikes illustrate their clear change in sentiment. The number of leading stocks breaking down on heavier volume through key technical support levels has been steadily increasing over the past several sessions. Decliners were outpaced handily by advancers by 22-to-11 on the New York Stock Exchange, and advancers also outnumbered decliners by a ratio of 21-to-10 on the Nasdaq exchange. " Canslim.net <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Charmin: Next week is OpEx and Coronation Week for the Bush Junta Odds are high for a light volume SWUP rally. Then we go down another leg to 1160 on the S & P towards the end of the month. The 1160 is likely to be the next place a big rally would start., if such were to occur. Its a huge area of confluence, multiple Fibo lines are bunched up around there. That will be the final dividing line separating the bull case from the bear case in 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 Do you remember this chart.... and what do you see listed at the top - Energy and Healthcare.... and what two sectors are positive so far this year - Healthcare $HMO - +3.34% Oil Services $OSX - +1.07% Do I have the right perspective on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 15, 2005 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 The energy market is either ready to explode to new highs, or fail like the gold market did at the end of March 2004. To me, it seems that crude is pushing back up to the highs way too fast, the same way gold pushed up to $430 much too quickly the second time last year. I'm long a lot of energy stocks, but I'm putting stops in right below this top. Either the market keeps going, or I'll get taken out.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 Wndy - no dispute with that analysis but I'm watching the QQQQ retest of June 30 at 37.90 and it ain't broken yet, so I have to assume we go up lightly on the QQQQ from here but, maybe that would depend on MSFT breaking down also below 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 Okay, I get it. Martha Stewart goes to jail for insider trading, while this guy pays a fine with no admission of guilt, for an obviously premeditated criminal act. And the Enron management tootles merrily along..... Free Martha! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Quess they didn't like her recipes or latest decoration advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 February issue of Stock traders almanac issues a buy on energy... "Natural Gas is bullish from February through May. There is no pure natural gas ETF play but we already hold two energy ETFs: Dow Jones US Energy Index (IYE) and Select Sector SPDR-Energy (XLE). If you do not already hold them, buy on a dip to our original Buy Limits. Both will benefit from the seasonal gas and oil play, high energy prices and the longstanding bullish fundamentals." XLE buy limit 35.20 stop 34 - automatic sell 43.18 IYE buy limiit 62.24 stop 61 - automatic sell 76.34 sell both by May 31 SMH has a stop loss of 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 On Thursday's M2M I showed the implications of RIG above the creek Also PDE trading above the creek... A while ago TDW broke above the creek. KWK breaks above 37 creek. ATW breaking new ground. ATLS - pullback probably complete - what a rise! Bullish .... while most of the laggards consolidated sideways while Crude took a beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 Add MDR to the energy stocks trading above their long term creek of 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 Mark - I agree about the energy stocks. most of my charts look the same, could be topping out. On a 10 year spx chart, the trendline looks like 1130, a 50 % retrace of the last rally 1155. With such a longterm line, if the low does not hold in that range, it looks like 890 would be the next stop. Given the daily market feed, I can't see that happening unless Greenspan died, but you and K wave would know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 If crude trades between 50 to 41 for the whole year do you think these oil stocks area going to go down? Crude took a pretty good hit already... Guess what - I see a artic blast is on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 Follow the leader.... GaryK says http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/050114/12292_2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 no idea. just what the energy charts look like. not all of them, but more than half of those I follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 Oh good heavens. A new job pulls me away from Stoolville & other happy haunts. I come back to discover MH writing funny stuff and lament what I've missed. Fantastic top-shelf stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 Charmin. Tanks for all that work on 3 peaks etc.Most illuminating! MH. Stunned into catalepsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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