BusKow Posted August 29, 2003 Report Share Posted August 29, 2003 Hey Doc, The fish wrapper is yesterday's views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted August 29, 2003 Report Share Posted August 29, 2003 Type B??? lol how about Non-A? the inflationist disciples are messianic in their ardor - and, ass well, the reflationist chimera-bearz who are their FIFTH COLUMN. Come in from The Cold, TwoScrews. Charon beckons you to the Gates. The Rubicon hASS been crossed - 'long' ago. Deflation's the name, competing devaluations, joblessness and slowing economies the game. Germany went, officially, into recession a few weeks ago, allegedly. Italy followed suit a week later. Orwuzzit VICE (emphais upon "vice") versa? Who CARES? California is on the ropes, and, if you want true entertainment, go read the nonsense over on Cramer's site today about Japan being in "recovery". The author extols reflation as panacea. Here's some REAL FURst rate TRIPE put FURth by those, like you, say, infected with the mASS(_)_) reflationary distemper: "What has all this deficit spending and government intervention done to Japan's economy besides make things better?....This is something to be studied by everyone worrying about U.S. deficits and their effects on interest rates. The short answer is there is none, as long as the central bank remains accomodative, which is exactly what the Fed is doing." Mike Norman, Why the U.S. should become Japan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 Mike Bolser warns of continued Repo Blasts. ?Avoid shorting for now..... There's no doubt that the Fed has changed direction in the weight of the repo pool of assets available to its primary dealers. The 30-day moving average is clearly in an up trend. Any one expecting a DOW fall should readjust their approach. Judging by the poor status of the nation's tax receipts, bond market and current account deficit, the Fed seems to be juicing the equity markets as a last ditch effort to save its bacon. So the equity rocket has been restarted...just in time to join the Fed's M-3 paper avalanche. Perhaps inflation is a good thing after all. Top up the punch bowl. I'm chuckling all the way to the safety deposit box. Sorry Mark, but I think you have a much better handle on things than Mike Bolser. But I do agree with his conclusion that the Fed will always resort to money expansion as a remedy - and that inflation will result from their policies. Gold may or may not push through the $376 level soon, but it is in a major bull move and will eventually just move on to higher highs. The market followed the springtime expansion of the Fed, and to a lesser extent, the July runup in M3. M3 has leveled off last week and I think it will continue to level off for a few more months as the mortgage boom just about stops. I underestimated the Fed in the spring, but I think bullz are overestimating the policy of the Fed now. There is a theory that repos are more important than other types of Fed actions, like outright buying of treasury bills. The Fed may be relying more on repo blasts this year than previously, but I am not entirely convinced that this represents a policy change or repos should be overly analyzed. Thanks for the interesting glossary P.S. Soup's back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 Happened to be looking at the week following the 4th holiday just to see what the market did then. Noticed that on 7/8 the S&P closed at 1007.84. We closed today at 1008.01. Wow, that's some bull market! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 Have you ever heard the term "inflation illusion"? During the 1970s, it referred to people who assumed that the dollar was constant in purchasing power. (Some of them were Depression kids who had actually seen the dollar gain purchasing power.) But in reality, they were getting eaten alive by price increases as the currency devalued. The central banksters knew the score, but many people, living with the assumptions of another era, were slow to catch on. It seems to me that there is another kind of inflation illusion -- let us call it Type B. In this case, the joke is on the central banksters. They use the CPI as a reference, and it tells them that inflation is muted ... 2.5% or so. Yet actually, it is raging. How can this be? Consider the 1970s. The rich world consisted of North America, Europe, Japan, Australia. China was locked behind the Bamboo curtain; Russia and eastern Europe behind the Iron Curtain; India was in the clammy grip of the license raj; southeast Asia was dirt poor. When the U.S. flooded the world with dollars, goods prices exploded. Capacity, in the small portion of the free world that was industrially active, was strictly limited. Goods prices roared, and eventually everyone recognized it as a symptom of inflation. Real estate ramped up along with goods prices. That was an inflationary symptom, too. Meanwhile, the DJIA lost 75% of its purchasing power from 1966 to 1982. Yet nobody counted that as deflation, though it WAS if you insist on defining inflation by purchasing power. The Nineties credit boom financed capacity additions throughout the globe. Goods prices -- like stocks in the previous 1966-82 secular cycle -- have been driven to absurd lows. But the central banksters have seized on this abnormally-depressed component of the world economy as their inflation indicator. They are deluded. Stocks rose 20% annually for 5 years in a row, from 1995 to 1999. Real estate rose by double-digit percentages for 3 years, from 2000 to 2002. But the central banksters don't view asset price bubbles as an inflationary symptom. They don't recognize that currency debasement can show up in different places at different times. It's still the same virus, just different symptoms. Any M.D. would understand the notion of a polysymptomatic inflationus cryptans virus. Inflation illusion Type B is the greatest intellectual error of the 20th century. Alan Greenspan is its poster child victim, a modern-day John Law. He bumbles on, purblind, disoriented, and deluded, mumbling his impotent imprecations. He has become a pathetic figure out of a Shakespearean tragedy, as he leads his country into a desolate wilderness, from which it may not return. When I tell people the 90's stock mania was just inflation, inflation of paper assets, they think I'm nuts. Nobody gets it. Well, Greeny does of course. He knows who he's working for, the top decile who own 80% of all stocks. Perceptions are funny. One analogy that springs to mind comes from the 60's and 70's. As a young man, all the adults I knew insisted that alchohol and tobbacco weren't drugs. I mean really, they totally rejected the concept. The word 'drug' carried a whole world of baggage for them which clouded their logic and even perceptions. Nowday most accept the facts about them but since they are legal they are acceptable. (well tobbacco is taking a lot of lumps) Stock inflation is acceptable in exactly the same manner to Greeny and the Street but most everyone else is still in the uncomprehending mode. To most inflation MEANS the price of goods going up. They cannot conceive that stocks can inflate. Stocks they think are 'worth' it. Ignoring all historical evidence is easy for them. They just know. It helps that people are inundated with propoganda saying stocks are worth it, not to mention a consensus thruout the political world. The beer and tobbacco companies weren't so lucky to have networks and daily papers and all the rest touting their case. Your inflation type B isn't an error, per say. It is a choice, based upon the self interest of those benefitting. It is backed up with its own economic and political ideology. One which has no opposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldilocks Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 Deflation's the name, competing devaluations Riddle me this bearmeister. If deflation is the name.....yet the game is competitive devaluation of currencies...... how in the hell does your doublethink work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksloth Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 Happened to be looking at the week following the 4th holiday just to see what the market did then. Noticed that on 7/8 the S&P closed at 1007.84. We closed today at 1008.01. Wow, that's some bull market! Actually, the 4th of July holiday serves as a poster child of this wonderful holiday timing system mentioned by Hulbert, if we take it to mean - buy just before the holiday and sell at most 1 week after the holiday. It ties in very nicely with buddha's forensic methodology too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyGoldenStool Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 They rolled out Joey Buttapluglia on The George Washington show- conspicuously absent is Abby Jo's Colon. Will they roll her out on Tuesday, or is she too much on a liability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 These are 3 headlines today that should be raising warning flags, but went unheeded. J6P is maxed out in vehicles, there is nobody left to buy, no matter how good the deal is. GM is up over 40% from their March lows. Daimler will probably try to sell Chrysler. They have already layed off 30,000 and already are talking another 12,000 and they have closed 7 plants. And they are up 45% from March. And then there is Ford with one foot in the grave and they are up 75% from their lows. Under funded pensions,increasing price of basic raw materials, insurance, utilities. They are in dire straits and know it and so does Greenie. Cars, Trucks Now Outnumber Drivers WASHINGTON - For the first time, the typical American family has more vehicles in the garage than licensed drivers in the house. There are 107 million U.S. households, each with an average of 1.9 cars, trucks or sport utility vehicles and 1.8 drivers, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported. That equals 204 million vehicles and 191 million drivers. http://www.belleville.com/mld/newsdemocrat/6650565.htm Auto industry job cuts seen. Job cuts by the major automakers can be expected when contract negotiations are completed with the United Auto Workers, anal cysts predict. The current contract is up Sept. 14. Chrysler is the most likely to slash workers. The No. 3 automaker reported a loss of $1.1 billion in the latest quarter. It has shed 30,000 jobs and closed seven factories since 2001. Chrysler told its unions to expect substantial job cuts if business doesn't improve, Bloomberg News reported. http://www.nydailynews.com/business/story/...5p-101941c.html Japanese Auto Production Falls in July. Auto production in Japan fell in July from a year earlier as carmakers were hit by weak domestic sales and flagging exports, industry data released Thursday said. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...to_production_1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 Earlier today in IDS somebody was talking about the countries that have recently went into recession. Well heres a new one to add to the list. Officials: Hong Kong economy will likely slip into recession http://www.nj.com/newsflash/business/index...ongKong-Economy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 Neely is a flip flopper. Last interview I heard on Ike's show he was forecasting a collapse. Now he's changed his mind??? Oops!!!! Guess I better listen to the latest. Seems that all of Ike's guests are bullish now. Don't blame them. Not when you see this chart in your face day after day.... When will it top out? $80?? $90?? $100?? Nice try windy. I am on medication and have only smiles on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 Were The Netherlands included in the recession list? It was reported on the 25th that the country slipped in 2001, something that was only discovered this week. http://nu.nl/news.jsp?n=194987&c=31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 MH - another great post. Jorma ditto. The problem for Greenie, of course, is how exactly do you get the money into the "hands of the people"? This is the basic conundrum of all wouldbe inflationists. The problem can't be resolved if the gap between supply and demand widens. How to close the demand gap? How to get money into the hands of the people? You can't just do like Japan and ease away as we all know that's just "pushing on a string". Nobody there to borrow. Just a nation of savers. The answer, to Greenie, is you ignite inflation in the assets of Americans (who aren't savers by nature) and then encourage them to treat those assets as wealth. Ta da! Works great. Well, at least for the 50% of people who own such assets, the rest can go flip burgers and hopefully die quietly without too much of that bothersome moaning and such. It would seem that the Fed has absolutely no clue what's actually going on here. To the fed, the symptom is deflation (overcapacity) and the cure is monetary easing. Unfortunately, the problem is too much credit, not too little, so they are fighting liquidity with liquidity. Whooops! That one will surely go down in the books. Too bad Greenspan's name doesn't have a second meaning, like Mudd (the MD who allegedly treated John Wilkes Booth), so that it can slip through the generations as a proxy for a vile and stupid form of evil long after the man himself has faded to obscurity. China as the next great powerhouse? Yep. Sure. They'll look as fearsome as Japan in the early 1980's then experience the same, inevitable bust that any hot-money economy suffers through. The only question is - how long before the US economy has to begin to return to trading parity? The answer is "seemingly forever" as the rest of the world is as reticent to stop the music as we are. Unfortunately for the partygoers math is math. Soon it will be obvious to all that the debt can never be repaid. Then everyone will rush for the exits. Commodities will roar. Gold and silver will explode. All tangible measures of wealth will soar. Paper will plummet. By the end of it all, I will trade a very small stack of metal for a nice large chunk of real-estate. Of course, I could have it all wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 They rolled out Joey Buttapluglia on The George Washington show- conspicuously absent is Abby Jo's Colon. Will they roll her out on Tuesday, or is she too much on a liability? They're saving Abby Justa Colon for the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted August 30, 2003 Report Share Posted August 30, 2003 WASHINGTON - For the first time, the typical American family has more vehicles in the garage than licensed drivers in the house. There are 107 million U.S. households, each with an average of 1.9 cars, trucks or sport utility vehicles and 1.8 drivers, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported. That equals 204 million vehicles and 191 million drivers. And when gasoline hits $5 a gallon, they'll have to buy again to replace their SUVS, Jeeps, mini-vans & hummers with small fuel-miser cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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