4-Step Rally Process

[Guest AssMaster]

Were you bearish as hell in 1998? Are you bearish as hell now?

 

Same thing could happen again. Hyperinflationary up into Mar. 2004 and then Hyperdeflationary down into 2007. Not saying that it will, but the downturn in fall could be a higher low and the high in spring 2004 could be higher than 2003 - following the four year and one year cycles.

 

Someone has the following saying (paraphrased) on their posts and I think it is a good one. "To the extent that your trading style depends on knowing the future direction of the market, you will lose."

[BAREister]

butt(_)_)ofCOURSEAss(_(_)mASSter!

 

the mkt exists to concentrate wealth in the hands of a few at the expense of the many. Now, it lures in the many.

 

Who knows what gyrations it has in store. of COURSE it could happen again.

 

complacency is endemic, there's been nary a respite on the way up. Everything (so FUR) this year has gone according to the mASSter PLAN. Thinkaboudid:

 

That tempts FATE, it duz.

 

Sorely.

[Guest AssMaster]

Here's an interesting anecdote: Today, my acquaintance (who I recently encouraged to take a bit of profits in her big gainers) called up to tell me that her UBS/PaineWebber rep called up to encourage her to SELL! This worries me, because I have never heard of such a thing. A salesman telling people to sell stocks.

 

On the face of it, it sounds like an inverse borking. Makes me want to buy tech and other tomfoolery.

[ThorAss]

Well I got thru about 8 pages but I just couldn't take any more. I will just add a few comments.

 

1) As long as The Magical Liquidity Bus is still on tour it is going to be difficult to make money shorting stocks.

 

2) Never forget how the Matrix works. Tops usually occur either late in Scam week or at the end of the month so why look for them at other times.

 

3) If you want to get on the bus be my guess, but just remember it doesn't have a toilet and may not stop when you need to go. If you're investing in certain stocks, the analogy would suggest that many may have to go at the same time and the emergency exit door is very small.

 

4) Two things you may not have seen favour the bears. One the Indu:Gold ratio is running into overhead resistance (supply). When it broke the lower trend line, that marked the bottom. Could we see that again for the TOP. Could be this week.

The SMH or $SOX is not partying. It has come off from it's top and bounced off it's lower channel line and closed at resistance. The SMH leads the SPY.

 

5) Tops usually come with a spike reversal or finger formation. No need to wait for confirmation of a downtrend. If you're an active trader you want to short the spike reversal then bail if it doesn't live down to expectations. This will make you profits: It's called front running The Matrix.

 

6) NB: Don't come here to moan that you've lost money or TA is crap. Just think of yourself as that guy from A Beautiful Mind. Maybe you're just not seeing everything clearly.

[SupplySider]

Today, we witnessed an example of the Buddhadropping 4-step Rally Process, brilliantly executed by The Matrix:

True. But, it is what it is -- for whatever ridiculous reason (if there even is one).

 

I've lost too much money arguing with the tape. It looks like Mr. Market might be in the process of teaching that lesson to the Bears after schooling the Bulls for three years.

 

I think it was BAREister who said (over a year ago here) that before all is said and done -- virtually every market participant will have his head handed to him (bullish, bearish, FA-types, TA-types, E-wavers, etc.).

[phatbubble]

After today, I believe the blow-off scenario to the 4th of July

is a given.........

 

Unreal.....All have been calling for a pullback and this market is not giving in.

 

Congats.

If any one thinks Bradley is going to call a top is mistaken.

i'll take that bet.

 

the bradleys aren't a T/A indicator or a spinoff of cycle or retracement work. they're crude graphical representations of interplanetary relationships which have been assigned various and usually slightly differing and arguably arbitrary mathematical values, and then have been added together and plotted on Y axes, often without any labeling or quantitative delineation at all.

 

it's only math on the surface. it's rightbrained work, acausal, the provenance of leaf readers and berobed figures in purple felt hats with stars and halfmoons on them. it's outside the system. who knows why it's been working - especially the directional component - but it has. i've got my own theories but....who knows. if i hadn't been preoccupied by trying to be so goddamned clever over the past year i would have thrown IT long or short on the big bradley turns and turned the monitor off, and been up about two thousand percent.

 

this last move through OE and EOM could be sideways nuffin or it could be a gigantic orgiastic explosion, a vertical, foaming, frothing, repo-sanctioned, refi-assisted multidecabilliondollar blowoff top. personally i think it's as likely we crack SPX 1100 in the next few weeks as it is that we malinger around the current june high(s).

 

then the keg tap will start to spit.

 

pfft, pthoo, p'tttooo.

 

"pump it."

 

"i am."

 

"is it kicked?"

 

pfft....pfthhth. pft.

[PileDriver]

I'm with you Phat.

 

The only entity that is going to call the top is Mr Marke. And he will do it on his terms and when he is damn good and ready.

 

Follow him and you will make tons of money, fade him and you will lose everything.

 

Bradley has been DEAD ON and every other top/bottom picker has been dead off. I find it very useful to 'prepare' for turns, not actually trade them in advance - if it happens fine, if it doesn't fine. But it sure beats the hell out of listening to anyone else that's for sure.

 

t-minus 11 trading daze and counting.

 

Keep fighting the trend until then if you like pain