Mark To Market - Off Of The Lift, Onto The Slope

[PileDriver]

I firmly believe we are in the vicinity of a major top, just don't know if it is going to be an inverted V or a broad drawn-out top like last year. Mr Marke will tell us soon.

[DogBoy]

"Was that the peak?"

Yes but who cares anyway. To me it's splitting hairs. It's like throing a pie against the wall and then trying to predict when the first dropling will hit the floor.

Even if it isn't the next top (probably the last week of DEC) will not be much higher if at all. It'll probably be a little lower.

 

"Will it hold??"

Yes. After the next fall the SP will never get above 650 in our lifetimes. The level of "Irrational Exuberance" will be a mark that will pose a solid wall of resistance for the next 40 years.

 

"How fast will it drop from here?"

Slow at first then a lttle faster but not much. With the Boyz bailing the boat all the way it'll probably take 9 months to get to a 450-500 SP.

This entire bear market has been marked by drops thru "a cut from a thousand knives" and I don't think it's changing it's behaviour now.

The folks waiting for a 1000 points of light drop in the DOWager will once again be sorely dissapointed.

And after the coming drop the only players left will be the pros trading with each other just like in Japan. The only people still owning stocks will be some old ladies who've fallen asleep cuz the nurse at the home is stealing her medicine and getting wacked on it.

 

As for the 1973-74 comparison it's completely bogus. What we're witnessing here is on a scale never witnessed in history. There are many differences both in the economy and world politics and unfortunately for us living at this time the implications are VERY serious.

 

Those trying to draw conclusions between the 00's and the 70's are deluded in my view. Anybody trading stocks or making political decisions on this premise will be making a big mistake. I have no doubt the there are leaders today will try to use the 70's as a map in making decisions and they'll be mistaken.

 

"They are going to throw everything they and the Greenman have at this rally"

 

It won't matter. Bear markets have a mind of their own and you can't fool mother nature. Whether it will be a political event or the Boyz themselves talking the market down it will happen. I'll mever forget a very cold morning in Jan 02 when the Naz was poised to leap over 2100 and break thru the high of the last rally.

No less then 4 FED governors came out on procto and talked the NAZ down from ledge saying that the outlook wasn't all that good after all. They likely didn't want anothre bubble on their hands and the risk of a sudden crash that goes with it.

What Bullz forget is that the FED"s job is to ensure an "orderly market" not one that always goes up. This they have been doing as admirable job of so far.

[PileDriver]

...and as long as they keep wheeling people out on Crapvision to discuss "have we bottomed yet?" then we have not and the bear will continue and is alive and well, its just taking a breather right now.

 

When we hit true bottom no one will give a crap and Crapvision will be the Sports channel.

[torah man]

Blatant Advertisement

 

I have started another Rabbi-like thread in the Theology Area.

 

http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...act=ST&f=8&t=62

 

 

Join in if you wish.

[torah man]

I am still holding my puts in qqq, spx, and klac.

 

this morning when it gapped up, i decided to go run some errands and when i came back, it had taken care of itself.

 

i knew it had to go up, but i just did not feel like watching it go up. if felt real refreshing not to push it down with my energy during the day.

 

i expect more of the same tomorrow, although maybe not a new high.

[Guest AssMaster]

Dumping all but two spec longs, easing into BEARX and some foreign ETFs.

 

It looks too toppy to me right here. I'm with PileDriver.

[PileDriver]

Interesting stat from VectorVest's Market Timing Index (MTI) which has been pegged above the unusually high 1.6 level for three days now.

 

The longest consecutive days above 1.6 is 6 days, shortest 3 days. In every case afterwhich the market always headed down the crapper and never looked back.

 

Dates MTI over 1.6

 

1/31/2001

5/22/2001

12/7/2001

1/4/2002

12/2/2002

 

Once the uptrendline from the Oct low is breached you might as well kiss this "new bull market" good bye.

 

Like DogBoy said, we'll never see these sorry ass price levels again once we start motoring away from the H&S neckline.

[machinehead]

Japan confessed this morning that the yen at 120 is killing them. They would like to see it at 150. The yen promptly dropped about 2% against the dollar.

 

In the competitive devaluation game, the stakes are getting ever higher. When a graying welfare state like Japan allows other rich countries to outinflate it, it gets buried in a deflationary hole from which it may never climb out.

 

Time is short and the end game is in sight. The first crop of baby boomers (1946 vintage) start taking early retirement (age 62) just six years from now, in 2008. As the swell of baby-boomer retirements crests into a tidal wave, Social Security cash flow goes negative in the teens. Rich-country governments have but one more decade to get their affairs in order and prepare their last will and testament.

 

Any government that can buy, borrow or steal economic growth at the others' expense can add a couple of years to its lifespan. Consequently, the U.S. is going to reflate like there's no tomorrow. Because in point of fact, there isn't (metaphorically speaking).

[PileDriver]

Funny, the Apr-May 2001 rally was the same magnitude and 34 days long, this one is 38 days long and yet so many are convinced that the bear is dead.

 

Doubtful.

 

http://www.crystalball-forum.com/merlin/index.html

[midnite lightning]

Interesting day!

 

Futures shot up in the morning at one point to 145. Very surprised to see it crater like it did. They were trying to say the ISM numbers were not good. I don?t believe it. Something is up. Yes it did crawl back up, but on a bent wing and a prayer. Something is real fishy here!

 

From a TA point it is a reversal bar, higher high with a close in the bottom 1/3rd, volume is the only thing I question here. I would rather see a spike on today?s volume or the previous day. Could get lucky and see 2 to 3 down days that?s about it.

 

Looking at the weekly charts dow and spx, all the indicators still show upside potential. The adx shows sideways to lower. Don?t look good for the bears at the moment. Hell no, I?m not going dong. I will hold my shorts as usual.

 

What is up with this Disney, carnevall and some other cruise ship co? Something funny about all of these people getting sick. Just don?t happen like that. I don?t ever recall an epidemic like this on multiple ships at the same time. I doubt they all use the same vendors. Oh well!

 

Be careful.

 

CYA

[GregFokker]

In a classic and now commonplace about-face, Japan's finance minister is denying he ever said it, and the Nikkei is currently at a 2 month high. I am increasingly disgusted with the primitive pump and dump tactics being employed on this macro scale. They're all cheats, liars and scoundrels. I am increasingly losing interest in timing the markets for profit. It makes more sense to simply follow the larger trends and bet on that winning asset class. I believe it's clear enough that gold will be the winner for the next decade as these buffoons and scoundrels continue to play games with the world's finances. There's one asset class that doesn't need "full faith and credit", and I intend increase my already substantial holdings.

[DogBoy]

"They would like to see it at 150."

 

Anything over 130 should get Gold buying going again in Land Of The Rising Sun.

 

The JAPS have figured out a sure way of stopping the IMF from looting your economy and your savings: buy the yellow stuff. It works every time.

 

I have the feeling that the last round of Yen devaluation nearly caused the Boyz to shit bricks over the Gold buying that ensued.

 

I don't think that no matter how much the Jap gubmints whines you are going to see any significant Yen devaluaton any time soon.

 

Besides even if the yen went to 150 the American consumer is already tapped out and has new cars, VCr's TV's up the yinger. What would it accomplish other than causing another round of panic Gold buying in Japan ?

 

I see quite the opposite.

 

Since Japan is a creditor nation I see their currency strengthening significantly --- especially against the dollar.

 

And this should prove to be a very long term trend as the debt problem in the US will take DECADES to work out.

[Fartpolio Manager]

Just remember, any rally is a gift right now, start by scalping - it takes awhile for a big turn to develop... be nimble, be quick... ease into it, but don't be surprised when things drop faster than you anticipated... having said that, I expect the market to open higher tomorrow, try to rally and fail miserably... volume should tell the tale... if it goes higher, that's fine... don't fire all your bullets on the first wave... it's going to be choppy.

[longOnUranus]

Epidemics ala Norwalk virus, enterotoxic E. coli (travellers diarhhea) are not a bit unusual. It is more likely related to food/water brought on board from exotic areas than "terror" or accidental contamination. If I wanted to terrorize an ocean-bound vessel, a gun and a gang-plank (like the Greek liner several decades ago) would be more effective. Similar attack rates with different illnesses (illnesses per day vs. total population) can be found at public schools during flu season or at day care centers.

[Guest]

A down day here but apart from a steep selloff on open the action has been less than spectacular. Doing the roller coaster sideways move atm. The thing that stands out is lack of volume, fairly quiet yesterday, even more so today. I'm already set up in puts and hanging out for some downside here, doesn't have to be huge but even a short trend would be gratefully received. Hate this hanging around waiting...