Guest Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Steve Forbes on CNBS just said "we are seeing mild inflation hitting the market and the FED is behind the curve. Rather than raising rates - the FED should drain money supply." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Looks like Greenspin's patch is still soft: WalMart says Aug same store sales up only 0-2% vs their (previously reduced) est of 2-4%. Haven't they been saying weekly sales were "on plan"? I guess their plan included a late Aug surge that didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 fantastic - what a fantastic capper to 25 years of neoliberalism - let the ill-gotten oligarchs live out their days tax-free, and then pass their pile to thier kids tax free, all the while letting the serfs shoulder the burden in exchange for the privilege of riding the rest of the bear market to non-retirement. Excellent. Exactly! But hey, what could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 FEDEX is called higher this morning on raised guidance. It seems that they have been able to pass on the higher cost of fuel to their customers in the form of fuel surcharges. However there is no inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Rut Rho! Looks like the dolor jam is wearing off already. Man, the markets just have no respect for gigantic gobs of money anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Looks like Greenspin's patch is still soft: WalMart says Aug same store sales up only 0-2% vs their (previously reduced) est of 2-4%. Haven't they been saying weekly sales were "on plan"? I guess their plan included a late Aug surge that didn't happen. Up 0% to 2%??? What is up about 0%? This guidance range is going to cause an earthquake. WMT is trending into negative growth and the implications will send shock waves through the market. They are acknowledging that zero-growth is in their guidance range...incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Pretty busy economic calendar this week. Existing Home Sales Aug 24 Durable Orders Aug 25 New Home Sales Aug 25 Initial Claims Aug 26 Help-Wanted Index Aug 26 GDP-Prel. Aug 27 Chain Deflator-Prel. Aug 27 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug 27 Personal Income Aug 30 Personal Spending Aug 30 I've got my eye on the help wanted index as I think that one is the least subject to Gubmint manipulation. All the anecdotes from my neck of the woods are consistent with job loss and not stabilization let alone creation. Of course, the GDP is going to be a pretty interesting number but it's important to remember that 3Q 03 was revised downward a full 100 basis points (on a Friday afternoon, on page A10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Looks like Greenspin's patch is still soft: WalMart says Aug same store sales up only 0-2% vs their (previously reduced) est of 2-4%. Haven't they been saying weekly sales were "on plan"? I guess their plan included a late Aug surge that didn't happen. Up 0% to 2%??? What is up about 0%? This guidance range is going to cause an earthquake. WMT is trending into negative growth and the implications will send shock waves through the market. They are acknowledging that zero-growth is in their guidance range...incredible! No, no, no, no, no. This can't be happening. The NYT just came out with an article that higher oil prices were bullish for the economy. Several economists said so. The consumer is "resilient" and I expect, given their clientele, WMT sales to be immune from higher fuel prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 fantastic - what a fantastic capper to 25 years of neoliberalism - let the ill-gotten oligarchs live out their days tax-free, and then pass their pile to thier kids tax free, all the while letting the serfs shoulder the burden in exchange for the privilege of riding the rest of the bear market to non-retirement. Excellent. Exactly! But hey, what could go wrong? What could go wrong already has for the last couple of decades. We have exported our jobs and there are fewer and fewer worker bees to feed the system from the bottom. When the construction / real estate boom dies, that will be painfully obvious. Why would you buy a new car today if you know the incentives are only going to get bigger tommorrow? I think that's what Detroit is facing right now. Too many people bit when incentives were half of what they are and now with the new prices continuing to fall they are severely upside down in their autos. This doesn't make them happy when they see prices for 2005 models below what they paid for their 2003 that they still owe on for another 4 years. A different twist on Plunger's tire theory. People may be forced to keep their cars longer if they can't trade out of them (upside down) or simply become reluctant to buy if they think prices will keep falling. This could actually shift tire demand from the manufacturers to the consumers who might have simply traded out of the old tires into a shiny new set on a new car. Tire demand might fall but maybe not as fast as one might think. I'm beginning to wonder which is worse, highly protectionist tarrifs or "free trade"? When oil is hitting $200 a barrel shipping the same stuff all the world makes back and forth across the planet isn't going to make much sense. With tarrifs we kept the jobs on shore but lost a lot of the export markets and subsequently some of the jobs. Now we lose most of the jobs and the export markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 They vote Republican because of "values" and don't seem to mind that they are being screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 I'm looking forward to the next CPI which will read slightly differently than all the prior ones.... Lumber price goes through the roofSpot price at record high: Hurricane Charley and hot U.S. housing market cited John Greenwood Financial Post Friday, August 20, 2004 VANCOUVER - Lumber prices continued their meteoric rise this week and are expected to break through a record as Florida home owners prepare to rebuild after the devastating impact of Hurricane Charley. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, September lumber futures delivery were yesterday sitting at US$442 for 1,000 feet of two-by-fours, the highest in 10 years. The next one will read "excluding the volatile food, energy and lumber components" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Monday has become my own personal groundhog day. It always opens the same. First, a little dolor bonering, out of nowhere and for no good reason. Coupled to Gold and silver slamming. Always the same. Every Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Bloomberg faithfully retails the latest Matrix spin. Seems Friday's U.S. GDP report is expected to be a little soft ... maybe only 2.7%. But that's positive for the doolar because [drum roll] ... we're growing faster than Europe, whose economy only expanded at a 2.0% annual rate in the last quarter! And in the wacky world of money mismanagers, beating your benchmark is all that counts! The almighty dollah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Yobob: Every one of those existing autos you mentioned were always going to be in the market and eventually in need of tires (it's already priced in the stocks), regardless of retention of ownership or change of ownership. You might additionally consider that the number of cars that might be taken off the road for up to a two or three months through reposession - or through the slowing in Used Car Sales (a trend) that results in zero miles being logged as they sit on the lot awaiting sale. Additionally, you may hear of two-car families choosing to use the gas hog (which has the most expensive tires) far less than they had previously. Viewing the trend toward reduced new car production, in concert with these other trends, I don't see ANY scenario under which tire manufacturers will become more profitable than their estimates. Of course I could be wrong...I just can't make a case for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Bloomberg faithfully retails the latest Matrix spin. Seems Friday's U.S. GDP report is expected to be a little soft ... maybe only 2.7%. But that's positive for the doolar because [drum roll] ... we're growing faster than Europe, whose economy only expanded at a 2.0% annual rate in the last quarter! And in the wacky world of money mismanagers, beating your benchmark is all that counts! The almighty dollah Two things. First, the Eu and the US use decidedly different measures of GDP output. Unless I'm mistaken, the Eurozone doesn't use hedonics and other crap to slap on an average of 1%-2% like we do. Second, In the linked article, I have a candidate for your "stupid economic quote" assemblage. Crude oil's retreat from a record on Friday may also have spurred demand for the dollar, said Adam Cole, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London. Uhhhh. I'm gonna need that one explained. Just last week some currency idiot was explaining the dollars strength on the basis of the fact that oil is priced and paid for with dolors, which creates higher dolor demand as the price of oil goes up. Neither really makes sense to me as the final disposition of those petrodolors would seem to be at the discretion of the receivers. Don't like dolors? Just round trip them into Euros or gold or sour pickles the minute you get them. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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