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B4 The Bell, Tuezelday, June 15


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:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D Also we welcome new members! :)

 

Greenspan is expected to 'sail' through his confirmation hearings today in Washington. The weather in the interest rate market may be however much more turbulent, as it has to contend with the CPI and AG's expected commentary.

 

But is AG really in control of interest rates? (I think I hear a "no" from Doc!)

 

Here's the deal. Interest rates on Treasury bonds have been rising since June 13 of last year, when rates bottomed out at 3.11 percent for the 10-year Treasury bond. Last week's closing rate: 4.80 percent. Yields on five-year and two-year Treasury securities have more than doubled, to 4.06 and 2.81 percent, respectively, from 2.03 and 1.08. Those are pretty hefty increases.

 

But wait a minute. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has all but said he'll raise interest rates at the Fed's meeting in two weeks. How can rates have been rising for a year when Greenspan hasn't yet raised them? The answer: The Fed doesn't control interest rates. It controls some key short-term rates -- but it doesn't control long-term rates, or interest rates as a whole.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...-2004Jun14.html

 

Branson 'sails' across the English Channel:

 

Branson sets new cross-Channel record

Posted Tue, 15 Jun 2004

 

British entrepreneur, airline magnate and incorrigible publicity-seeker Richard Branson claimed the latest in a series of travel-based records on Monday after crossing the Channel by amphibious vehicle.

 

Branson, head of the Virgin Group, took a fraction over one hour and 40 minutes to make the crossing from Dover harbour, southern England to the northern French port of Calais in the futuristic-looking Gibbs Aquada.

 

http://motoring.iafrica.com/newsbriefs/329218.htm

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Encana revises forecasts upward (Do I hear a "yes" from Brain4?):

 

CALGARY, June 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - EnCana Corporation (TSX & NYSE: ECA) has increased its sales forecasts for 2004 and 2005 based on strong operating performance from the company's suite of resource plays across North America. EnCana originally forecast organic sales growth of 10 percent in 2004. With the new guidance, EnCana's organic growth rate rises to 12 percent in 2004, before the inclusion of the recent acquisition of Tom Brown, Inc. and additional planned asset sales. Including these transactions, the company's new 2004 sales forecast is between 725,000 and 765,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, the midpoint of which is a 15 percent increase from 2003 sales of 650,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

 

In 2005, EnCana's sales are expected to average between 810,000 and 860,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a further 12 percent increase, at midpoint, from the new 2004 midpoint.

 

http://www.encana.com/investor/news_releas..._2004/0615.html

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At the end of 1993, According to Al Martin, "The total national debt of the United States on a fully realized basis, inclusive of federal, state, county and local debt stood at a record $20.613 trillion (83.73% of said debt having been created from 1981-92 and from 2001 to present.) The total public and private indebtedness of the United States ended the year 2003 at $39.384 trillion. The total public and private assets of the United States ended the year 2003 at $26.134 trillion. Thus, the United States by the end of 2003 has a negative net worth of approximately $13 trillion. The total debt service of the United States ended the year 2003 at 309.4% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). These are numbers never before seen. This is a higher debt to gross domestic product ratio than [that of] any other country on earth, which still services its debt. For instance this is a higher fraction of debt service to GDP than [that of] the government of Nigeria. The United States federal government, as of the end of 2003, was servicing 41.3% of total debt - the only first-world nation on the planet that services less than 100% of its debt.

 

http://www.altpr.org/modules.php?op=modloa...order=0&thold=0

 

 

 

The Neo-Conservative movement understands the need to wrap religion around a cause...to create the basis for "A Just War." As I was reading through some of the literature this morning regarding the teachings of Strauss (the followers of whom seem to be driving the administration's policies), I was reminded of the biblical hymn "Onward Christian Soldiers" - which I dutifully sang each week in church with my family growing up in a highly religious Michigan community.

 

What I found next is most insightful, having been penned by a Commander in the Chaplain Corps of the U.S. Navy in 1999...prior to the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq. It reads like a blueprint to capture the hearts of the American people in the lead-up to war. One cold reality strikes me at my core. The separation of church and state is a total myth. It has never existed in the United States, and it never will.

 

Onward Christian Soldiers?

Christian Perspectives on War

By Timothy J. Demy, Th.D.

Commander, Chaplain Corps, U.S. Navy

 

"Kill'em all, and let God sort'em out!" As a Christian, what do you think about this slogan of war that is occasionally expressed in the military environment--sometimes jokingly, sometimes seriously? Is it humorous or repulsive? Is it biblical or blasphemous? Interestingly, though it is heard today in conversations, read on bumper stickers and worn on T-shirts, it is not a new sentiment. In fact, it expresses the feelings of a churchman nearly a thousand years ago, who, when asked by a military commander on the battlefield for assistance in distinguishing between Christians and non-Christians replied, "Kill them all. God will know which are His." The latter half of the response may be theologically correct, but the first half is morally repugnant. It was however, fully accepted and acted upon as a "Christian response." Values have consequences. His did, and so do yours. What then, is your view of war?

 

http://www.leaderu.com/humanities/demy.html

 

 

 

 

Gagged by Ashcroft: Sibel Edmond's story still untold

 

Sibel Edmonds, the FBI translator who was fired in 2002 after complaining about bureau incompetence, stood with Vietnam-era whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg outside the federal courthouse in Washington, D.C., Monday morning to denounce government secrecy.

 

The impetus for the gathering was supposed to have been a hearing before U.S. District Judge Reggie Walton on whether Edmonds would be allowed to testify in a lawsuit filed by families of 9/11 victims who accused members of the Saudi royal family of financing the attacks. Attorney General John Ashcroft has sought to block Edmonds' testimony as a danger to national security. The judge canceled the hearing without explanation, but Edmonds and Ellsberg went ahead with their news conference.

 

Age has softened Ellsberg's voice, but he is still angry. The former Defense Department official who leaked the Pentagon Papers recounted his history with Richard Nixon's attorney general, the late John Mitchell, who authorized the "dirty tricks" campaign that, among other excesses, resulted in a break-in of the office of Ellsberg's psychiatrist to look for dirt on the war critic.

 

Ellsberg said he could not trust Attorney General John Ashcroft to expose the flaws of federal law enforcement. "So I rely on her judgment," he said, gesturing to Edmonds, a petite Turkish-American woman in a black suit with her dark brown hair swept up in a loose bun.

 

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room//index.html

 

 

 

 

"A temporary coup"

Author Thomas Powers says the White House's corruption of intelligence has caused the greatest foreign policy catastrophe in modern U.S. history -- and sparked a civil war with the nation's intel agencies.

 

By Mark Follman

June 14, 2004 ?|?

 

The U.S. is now waging three wars, says intelligence expert Thomas Powers. One is in Iraq. The second is in Afghanistan. And the third is in Washington -- an all-out war between the White House and the nation's own intelligence agencies.

 

Powers, the author of "Intelligence Wars: American Secret History From Hitler to Al Qaeda," charges that the Bush administration is responsible for what is perhaps the greatest disaster in the history of U.S. intelligence. From failing to anticipate 9/11 to pressuring the CIA to produce bogus justifications for war, from abusing Iraqi prisoners to misrepresenting the nature of Iraqi insurgents, the Bush White House, the Pentagon and the intelligence agencies they corrupted, coerced or ignored have made extraordinarily grave errors which could threaten our national security for years. By manipulating intelligence and punishing dissent while pursuing an extreme foreign-policy agenda, Bush leaders have set spy against U.S. spy and deeply damaged America's intelligence capabilities.

 

"It reveals an extraordinary level of bitter combat between the CIA and the Pentagon. It's astonishing that the CIA actually oversaw a team of people who broke into Chalabi's headquarters -- which was paid for by the Pentagon -- and ransacked the place. The CIA single-handedly destroyed him."

 

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/06/14/coup/index.html

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http://www.counterpunch.org/wire06112004.html

 

June 11, 2004

 

The Terror Hour

 

Miami TV Station Invites Terrorists to Talk Openly About Their Planned Attacks on Cuba and Venezuela

 

By CounterPunch Wire

 

Cuban television tonight broadcast remarkable segments of a one hour program on Miami TV Channel 41 in which known paramilitaries from the Florida based Comandos F4 organization openly spoke of their preparation for an armed attack against Cuba.

 

 

It is illegal in the US to defend terrorist actions on TV. The promotion of the assassination of another nation's leader is also illegal under the US Neutrality Act. Nonetheless, commented round table participants, these men were able to openly sit in a studio dressed for war and happily discuss the different armaments they were using to train paramilitaries to attack Cuba, and get away with it. There couldn't be better proof of the US government's complicity with such would-be terrorists.

 

Adding weight to recent accusations of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, former Venezuelan army captain Eduardo Garcia was also present in full uniform to discuss the help Comandos F4 were giving in his efforts to bring down Chavez by force. Chavez has frequently charged that Miami Cuban-American terrorist organizations are involved with Venezuelans seeking to assassinate him.

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Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

 

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In an interview with British Broadcasting Corp. radio broadcast Tuesday, Brigadier-General Janis Karpinski said that Major-General Geoffrey Miller told her last autumn that prisoners ?are like dogs, and if you allow them to believe at any point that they are more than a dog then you've lost control of them.?

 

Gen. Miller was in charge of the Guantanamo Bay detention camp and now oversees U.S. prisons in Iraq.

 

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/.../International/

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If one views the lies told by this administration and their lapdogs (the CIA, the FBI, The State Department and others) as systemic...

 

Lie about WMD to justify a war,

Lie about the war on Terror to justify re-election of this administration...

 

then why should we think, even for a moment, that this administration would fail to sieze on the opportunity to lie about all matters pertaining to the economy...in order to ensure re-election?

 

This will be the next big scandal...and the final straw for voters. A whistleblower will leak documents which provide proof that the jobs numbers being pumped out are a lie, that the data pertaining to inflation are a lie, and that the Fed Chairman has been complicit with Cheney's office - effectively politicizing the Federal Reserve.

 

Imagine if it is revealed that the economy has actually NOT created 1.4 million new jobs since August...and that the CPI and PPI have actually been intentionally lied about at the suggestion of Cheney.

 

Did it happen? Would you put it past them?

 

Does Cheney actually know for a fact that the real inflation rate is much higher than he has been proclaiming? Does he actually know that the jobs data are false? As recently as yesterday, Cheney stood before an audience in Florida and once again proclaimed his certain knowledge of a relationship between AlQaeda and Saddam.

 

Is Greenspan just another agent of the Cheney Regime?

 

 

Greenspan's White House Visits Raise Questions About Policy Influence

 

The Republican central banker's visits to the White House have nearly quadrupled since Bush replaced President Clinton.

 

Greenspan's private meetings at the White House are usually not disclosed at the time they take place. Nor is any record made public of what was discussed. Thomas used Freedom of Information Act requests to the Fed for Greenspan's personal calendar.

 

His visits lead to two intriguing questions: How involved is the Fed chairman in setting White House policy? And do those friendships with the highest level officials of the Bush administration alter what Greenspan does with interest rates?

 

"The more a Fed chairman works with an administration and gets involved in administration policy, the harder it is for him to keep the administration out of monetary policy," warns Allan Meltzer, author of A History of the Federal Reserve and an economist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

 

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/US...CSM_040615.html

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Pentagon auditors warned officials against awarding Iraq contracts to Halliburton

11 June 2004

 

The Pentagon's award to Halliburton of the Iraq oil contract will be discussed during a June 15 hearing of the House Government Reform Committee. The hearing will coincide with the release of a General Accounting Office (GAO) report on the same issue. Officials from the GAO, Defense Contract Audit Agency and Army Corps of Engineers are expected to testify.

 

http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/news/DCAA_warned.html

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REPOST from Mon

============

 

Trouble with fearless forecasting is that you gotta get it all right..looks like we topped on Thursday and not this A.M at 9:30 like I thought....

 

anyway here goes bears.....

 

With the futures & HangSeng[it tends to lead da futures n not vis-versa] situation...it looks similar to May 17th and I do not think we gap down n GO lower all day..looks like we ST topped on June 10th and from their I think we go sideways into Friday Opex..with a low today.. a higher low on Tuesday...a rally on wednesday and a huge retrace down on Thursday...with a 100% retrace up of Thursdays decline on Friday

 

I suspect the real rally starts next week after Opex right into July 9th-12th

 

we will c as I expect a major low around July 14th

 

 

I think the 11wk cycle low comes in right on time today at today's lowest low[counting from March 24th this your 55th fib day] & that we see a high[gap up] on the June 17th Bradley date with a low[gap down] on June 18th....{this is the Bradley June 22nd low + 1day}

 

After the above.. we climb the wall of worry of the following into June9-12th of the following :

 

June 30th - CPA handover in Iraq / Fed meeting

July 5th - Independence Holiday

 

***********

 

RISK IS TO BE LONG ...up to June 22nd !!!!! imo

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As per yesterdays Roadmap we closed off the lows of the day..28points.

 

 

Joe Kernan 20mins ago..."we are in the sweet spot of a goldilock economy"..I kid you not.

 

I am Bearish for Today and am expecting us to put in a HIGHER LOW today and to close on or near the LOD{ will update later}..in other words I think its a Gap n Crap and I'm not just saying that since I just put on 2x Hedge shorts at DOW 10409 in the past 1/2 hour. I am still Long the DOWPIG at 10377 and 10405.

 

To reiterate, I think the lows of the week are in and we close near the LOD today. This would lead to my gap down futures scenario for Wednesday where we rally hard and close on the HOD.

 

 

NEWBIES: Please ignore my roadmap posts as they are strictly for entertainment purposes and can seriously damage your trading account. Also remember that in the world of the MATRIX since March 2003 it is substantially MORE risky to be short than long as even the dumbest bulls have multiple chances to exit due to Matrix activities.

 

The opposite is not true for shorting and wrong entry levels WILL NOT BE FORGIVEN till we are in a confirmed downtrend.

 

For Shorting as Brian4 says watch and learn...B4 is a true master at short entry levels.

 

 

BDK

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I thought b4tb was for trading not politics. Is there not a political stool where these posts belong?

 

Many more, and I'll forget the URL

 

OPtical

From Hiding Bear's opening remarks yesterday:

 

"Welcome to another week of trading, humor, insights, and what-not at B4 the Bell! B4 has as its central theme short-term trading, lead by the astute technician Brain4. But it is also about what ever members think affects that in a cordial atmosphere of a 24/7 international family lounge."

 

 

During the actual trading times, we try to hold down the non-trading posts,

but there is no rule against it.

 

The big rule here is to respect each other and focus on issues and not the

person who posts. So far, it has worked extremely well. IMHO

 

If you don't want to read something, just skip to the next post.

I enjoy hearing what other posters think because it tells me more

about their credibility as traders.

 

Sherlock

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At about 8:30 am, Gold and Silver moved up suddenly and the Dollar has

fallen. Futures are still up, though.

 

What is moving the metals?

 

 

Sherlock

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