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B4 The Bell Moonday October 4


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CBS.MW -- Dollar gains on Monday came in part amid expectations for a relatively upbeat U.S. employment report due for release Friday, although most economists were warning that September's hurricanes could skew the data.

 

Oh, I get it.

 

We're supposed to maintain this happy pitch of hysteria all week long, until the 'upbeat' employment report on Friday.

 

Somebody's scamming us here, that can't be right ... :mellow:

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Repo madness -

 

The Fed drains out $2.5 B in total repos, and at the same time reduces agency repos by $1.1 B. No fear here. They are making money tighter than I expected.

 

The NABE, which includes the thoughts of some former Fed members, looks for a strong economy. They also see much higher long term rates.

 

NABE Survey: US Soft Patch Over, Econ On Firmer Footing

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

October 4, 2004 9:15 a.m.

By Grainne McCarthy

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

 

NEW YORK -- After slowing earlier this year, the U.S. economy is poised to return to a stronger growth path as it shakes off the weight of higher energy prices, according to a new survey from the National Association of Business Economics.

 

"After a soft patch in the spring quarter, the economy appeared to find firmer footing this summer," said Duncan Meldrum, NABE president. "Fortunately, our panel expects the expansion to gain additional traction over the second half of this year and advance at a solid pace in 2005."

 

The October 2004 NABE outlook, a survey of 38 professional forecasters, downgraded the organization's U.S. growth forecast to 4.3% from 4.7% from its last survey in May. For 2005, the economists look for gross domestic product growth of 3.7%. "Residential investment is expected to decline modestly next year, but that drag on overall growth will be more than offset by an expected narrowing of the trade deficit, as real net exports are expected to rise roughly $20 billion from 2004 to 2005."

 

The economists predict the price of West Texas Intermediate, the crude deliverable against the benchmark Nymex futures contract, falling to $40 a barrel by the end of this year and $35 at the end of 2005.

 

In other forecasts, the NABE survey pits the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.50% toward the end of next year. It also expects the Treasury yield curve - which plots the relationship between Treasurys of different maturities - to steepen through the rest of this year "as recent sharp declines in long-term yields begin to unwind." The economists expect the yield curve to flatten next year as additional Fed rate hikes are implemented.

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,BT_CO_200...ticle%2Dbody%29

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It's all just a game, boys and girls...this is what happens on a 10 cent charge:

 

http://139.142.147.221/StockChart_ImageOnl...NX&ref_rate=180

Move due to realization that the charge was less than expected.....?

 

Hurricanes just like rising oil prices are good for the market, might those trends be symptomatic of 'climbing a wall of worry'

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Repo madness -

 

The Fed drains out $2.5 B in total repos, and at the same time reduces agency repos by $1.1 B. No fear here.

Wouldn't a logical interpretation of that data be that the FNM scandal is not going to be an issue? I assume that the Fed knows more about it than we do, and if they aren't scared, why should we be scared (or hopeful :P )?

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Somebody's scamming us here, that can't be right ... :mellow:

The same could be said of nearly every piece of news and economic information reported over the past year.

 

The Ten Year requires a horrible jobs number - and this is the pump in advance of the reversal.

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