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IDS World Markets Wed 3rd October 07


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Can someone help me understand how, leaving aside pure manipulation, the YEN can go down in value versus the USD when they have such a trade surplus with the US and the US interest rates are supposedly going to keep going down?

 

Is there any rationale for the decline in the YEN versus the USD?

 

Thnx.

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Here's a couple "crime scene" patterns to ponder. Both the IIX (internuts) and XLE (bigcrap energy) have completed their "return to the scene of the crime."

 

The XLE is starting to morph into a range, but a move under today's low opens up a bigger selldown. The IIX is now perched slightly above its major l/t resistance at 235-240ish (the neckline of the 99/00 bubble).

 

On the XLE, keep an eye on the 50dayMA and 200dayMA. The riverboatists appear to like to use these lines on the XLE as guideposts. The XLE bounced exactly at the 50dayMA in late Jun on its way to the Jul peak. Then it was turned away exactly at the 50dayMA prior to the move to the low. Then it bounced exactly at the 200dayMA on 8/16 when it found bottom.

post-2169-1191422787_thumb.jpg

post-2169-1191422830_thumb.jpg

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3 day cycle indicators whipsawing like crazy the past two days. No help there.

 

5 day cycle indicators mixed on qqqq. still on sell side on spx.

 

The key level on the Qs looks like 52. If they go through that, then breaking the high should come next.

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KBH ....................... go.

 

Lucky I  decided to cover my short.

612336[/snapback]

 

HGX right back at 169. Now there's a shocker. :P

 

Bubblers could easily run another 10-15% and not change a thing on the L/T chart.

 

If anything, this "rally" off the Aug lows has been far more anemic than the prior rallies off the Oct05 and Jul06 lows.

 

Could mean that, instead of bonering like before, the bubbs might be starting to form a base. Or not, of course.

 

But a 6-week base after a multi-year bubble seems a bit light in the loafers, IMO.

 

A 50% haircut off the top would indicate HGX 147 or so. The Aug bottom was 153.

post-2169-1191423501_thumb.jpg

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Looks like Rotation Station this week. Sell the hotsy-totsys (energy, submerging, goldies), buy the turds (bonks, bubblers, etc). Still haven't seen any selling of substance entering the techster brigade. Maybe the crooks are waiting for yearnings to sell the techs.

 

Usually we see rotation prior to a broader selloff. The fraudexes stay pimped until the rotation completes. When there's nothing left to rotate, all fall down.

 

But this time will, without question, be different.

post-2169-1191423736.jpg

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J Fed Accepts $2.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

 

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs

Total accepted: $2.25 Bln

Total submitted: $64.25 Bln

 

Agency Collateral Operation

Total accepted:  None

Total submitted: $18.45 Bln

Stop-Out Rate:  N/A

Weighted Average:  N/A

High-rate submitted: 4.8%

Low-rate submitted: 4.65%

 

Treasury Collateral Operation

Total accepted: $2.25 Bln

Total submitted: $26.85 Bln

Stop-Out Rate: 4.76%

Weighted Average: 4.76%

High-rate submitted: 4.76%

Low-rate submitted: 4.5%

 

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations

Total accepted:  None

Total submitted: $18.95 Bln

Stop-Out Rate:  N/A

Weighted Average:  N/A

High-rate submitted: 4.85%

Low-rate submitted: 4.78%

 

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

612323[/snapback]

 

Bummer, was asspecting another 5% stop out.

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KBH ....................... go.

 

Lucky I  decided to cover my short.

612336[/snapback]

 

HGX right back at 169. Now there's a shocker. :P

 

Bubblers could easily run another 10-15% and not change a thing on the L/T chart.

 

If anything, this "rally" off the Aug lows has been far more anemic than the prior rallies off the Oct05 and Jul06 lows.

 

Could mean that, instead of bonering like before, the bubbs might be starting to form a base. Or not, of course.

 

But a 6-week base after a multi-year bubble seems a bit light in the loafers, IMO.

 

A 50% haircut off the top would indicate HGX 147 or so. The Aug bottom was 153.

612342[/snapback]

 

There's a very clear channel on the XHB over the past 16 weeks. Each of 4 times it hit or almost hit the bottom of the channel would have been a good time to cover shorts for short term trading purposes. Each time they got near the top of the channel would have been a great time to short. The top of the channel makes a pretty clear stop line, but I don't think it matters since they are all going to zero. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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J Fed Accepts $2.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

 

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs

Total accepted: $2.25 Bln

Total submitted: $64.25 Bln

 

Agency Collateral Operation

Total accepted:  None

Total submitted: $18.45 Bln

Stop-Out Rate:  N/A

Weighted Average:  N/A

High-rate submitted: 4.8%

Low-rate submitted: 4.65%

 

Treasury Collateral Operation

Total accepted: $2.25 Bln

Total submitted: $26.85 Bln

Stop-Out Rate: 4.76%

Weighted Average: 4.76%

High-rate submitted: 4.76%

Low-rate submitted: 4.5%

 

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations

Total accepted:  None

Total submitted: $18.95 Bln

Stop-Out Rate:  N/A

Weighted Average:  N/A

High-rate submitted: 4.85%

Low-rate submitted: 4.78%

 

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

612323[/snapback]

 

Bummer, was asspecting another 5% stop out.

612345[/snapback]

 

 

Yeah, looks like it was a one shot deal. But I liked my theory though. Was kinda fun. :lol:

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Bought some of this thing when it broke back over $20. Looks like I have company as the riverboatists have jumped aboard and goosed it another 20% in four days.

 

INFN IPO'ed in June, bonered up almost 100% in two weeks, then got sold off for three months back to the IPO price. Chart looks similar to BX (Blackstone.) Nicely compressed chart that was crying for a volatility breakout.

 

Where it goes from here is anybody's guess. Looks like it might have shot a decent wad already.

 

INFN has something to do with the Internets, which I understand are popular with the kids these days.

post-2169-1191424377_thumb.jpg

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