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B4 The Bell Tuezelday July 27


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:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

 

Maybe only the bears noticed this, but the S&P hit a 2004 low yesterday. Despite more sightings of a "bottom" than in the last Ja-lo movie, the trend may still be your friend until proved otherwise.

 

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Here's a story on Kali, which shows how deficit spending is still the easy way out in the US:

 

Budget Deal Ends Weeks of Stalemate

The $103-billion state plan calls for no new taxes, few spending cuts and more borrowing. Some payments were about to be withheld.

 

By Evan Halper, Times Staff Writer

 

SACRAMENTO ? Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders ended a nearly monthlong budget impasse late Monday, reaching agreement on a $103-billion spending plan.

 

"I am a very happy governor because we have just agreed to a budget," Schwarzenegger said at a hastily arranged late-night news conference in his office suite in the Capitol. "We negotiated very hard. We again proved that working together, Democrats and Republicans working together, we can do the impossible."

 

The end result would be a budget that largely avoids Draconian cuts in spending in the short term, but leaves the state to reckon with projected deficits of up to $10 billion for each of the next two years.

 

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-bu...-home-headlines

 

More on the 9/11 commission and the Saudis:

 

Scrutinizing the Saudi Connection

By GERALD POSNER

 

Published: July 27, 2004

 

In establishing how the government failed to prevent the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, the 9/11 Commission Report is excellent. Its grasp of some details, however, is less than reassuring - particularly details about Saudi Arabia, which it calls, in a gross understatement, "a problematic ally in combating Islamic extremism."

 

On Sept. 13, 2001, a private jet flew from Tampa, Fla., to Lexington, Ky., before leaving the country later that same day. On board were top Saudi businessmen and members of the royal family. The assertion is that they were afforded extraordinary treatment since they flew out after the most cursory F.B.I. checks and at a time when American airspace was still closed to private aviation.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/27/opinion/27posn.html

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NFLX

 

What do you think about that chart? Looks to me like it broke $20, was defended at $19, is set up to engineer a bounce at the open - might retest $20 from below and then fall into the valley of the shadow of death.

 

Any thoughts?

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i read somewhere this morning that the indicated pricing structure for

google is to be $108 to $135.....................................................

 

offered out will be 35%..........of company.

 

i think they waited too long..............................................................

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A question about the unwinding of the carry trade. Leaving charts aside for a moment, I've been wondering whether institutional exiting of those positions wouldn't wind up in rising short rates but declining long rates as those players cover their positions. My understanding had been that institutions were borrowing short and lending long, so unwinding would reverse that. I'm sure I'm misunderstanding this.

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Guest yobob1

I've looked at at a lot of the information as to why the twin towers collapsed and I'm afraid I have to go with, what you see is what you get.

 

The exo-skeleton design of the towers was revolutionary for a structure of this size. It is akin to the difference between a unibody car and one which has a seperate frame. In a unibody car all of the strucutre is designed to be a contributor to the overall strength whereas a frame on car requires a frame that is strong enough to carry the load and a seperate shell that is almost self supporting. The net result is the unibody car is much lighter and uses a lot less steel. The downside to unibody is that an impact is the right place can deform and weaken almost the entire shell, where in a frame on car damage tends to be more localized.

 

In the towers the floor joists were critical to the strength of the building in that they held the exterior structure in the required alignment to maintain integrity.

 

It was not necessary to melt the steel, only a softenting of the fastner area is required. Ever bend steel? You don't have to add a whole lot of heat to make the steel malleable. The steel becomes quite soft well below the glowing red stage.

 

Someone said a wimpy plane structure couldn't create that much damage. Well certainly not at 20 miles per hour but when you factor in a speed of 300 miles per hour, an 80,000 pound object no matter what it's made of is going to do a lot of damage. So the plane hits and the impact weakens the stucture significantly.

 

As to the fire. Ever seen a raging forest fire? They burn way hotter than the average campfire. The reason is the size of the fire begins to create it's own "weather" in that it begins to have a chimney effect with the rising heat causing a much greater than normal uptake of cool oxygen rich air from the base which makes more fire which sucks more air in. Wind velocities can become quite high with nothing but the fire as the driver. Flying a fuel laden plane into a building is going to atomize a lot of fuel. I believe there was more than enough atomized fuel to create a fire that would become a self reinforcing fire which even at 800 degrees is going to significantly weaken steel. Take a look at a car that has burnt to the ground. There won't hardly be one piece of straight steel left, almost everything will be warped and stretched.

 

So here we have a building with a very large hole punched through it weakening 2 or 3 sides of a unibody structure with a fire hot enough to further weaken the remaining fastners in that area. With the significant load of the remaining intact floors above bearing down on the weak area it was bound to give. Once the critical joist fastners finally gave in, the weight of the intact floors above dropping even 10 feet would create a huge impact on the floors below, with each successive floor adding more mass which is simultaneously accelerating. It is the same principal that a controlled building implosion uses. It is not the explosives that bring the building down, it is gravity. The explosives are only used to weaken the structure.

 

Had any of those planes hit the Empire State building or the Chrysler building, which are of the conventional "frame-on" design, they would probably still be standing. I don't believe it would be possible for sufficient charges to be planted without anybody noticing. If you've ever watched a show on a controlled implosion you would know that in order to gain access to those areas that would have to have been "planted", you would know that you would have to punch a lot of big holes in visible walls, floors, ceilings just to get access. Sorry I just don't believe that several thousand people wouldn't notice weeks worth of holes being punched on every floor without raising a whole bunch of eyebrows.

 

Now as to who orchestrated the event or allowed it to happen, that's a whole nuther matter. The 767 planes are of a glass cockpit design and are capable of being flown remotely, but only if you turn off the transponder from what I've read. Why weren't the fighters scrambled as they would have been in any normal report of multiple transponder disappearances, not to mention the fact that the FAA was well aware of the hi-jackings long before the first fighter took off. A very disturbing timeline that is difficult to blame on a chain of "dropped balls". The reactions and actions of our government officials is also extremely difficult to reconcile with what one would expect.

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NFLX

 

What do you think about that chart? Looks to me like it broke $20, was defended at $19, is set up to engineer a bounce at the open - might retest $20 from below and then fall into the valley of the shadow of death.

 

Any thoughts?

P&F Chart shows Bearish price objective 0.0

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