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Weakends Are Made For Labats Blue


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:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

 

Going to the Dentist

 

Bob went to the dentist to get a tooth pulled. First off the dentist said, "I'll give you a shot to numb your jaw." But Bob said, "No, please don't do that, I'm afraid of needles." The dentist said, "OK, I'll get out the gas to put you to sleep." However Bob said, "Nope, I'm allergic to the gas."

So the dentist said, "Just a minute, I'll go look for something else." After a while he came back with a couple of pills. Bob asked, "What kind of pills are those?" The dentist said, "Viagra."

Bob said, "WHAT! Why Viagra?"

 

 

 

 

 

The dentist said, "They won't help the pain, but they'll give you something to hang on to while I pull your tooth.

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One of my fears is the possibility of a sudden crash, which for some reason I am not participating in, or even worse, stuck on the wrong side. Isn't that partly what underlies this bull/bear long/short discussion that keeps returning to the thread?

 

Yet the more I look at charts and price behaviour, the more I realise this fear is probably not very rational.

 

Not too long ago I posted a chart of the 1987 crash, which showed distinctly how the market went into total meltdown the day it fell through the 200dma.

 

Along the same lines, and to illustrate what WH wrote earlier, I pulled up a daily $indu chart starting just before the 1929 crash and ending a couple of months later. Here too, the 50dma and the 200dma were instrumental in defining the tops and the breakdown points.

 

If one's trading system involved trading long above the 50dma and short below it, and steeled oneself to suffer a couple of whipsaws, there was plenty of time to get on the right side of the trend.

 

In my opinion the clearest lesson to be learned from both 1987 and 1929, is that the market is extremely vulnerable below the 200dma and anybody donging it at that point is like a bungee jumper with a dubious bungee cord that may or may not fail.

post-20-1081029255.gif

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Soup,

 

What part of the country is your staffing company in, and what industries do you serve?

 

My current read on the tech market here in Silllycon Valley, CA is that there isn't a whole lot of growth. We've lost 400,000 jobs in the greater bay area since 2001, and the pool of workers has actually decreased due to people moving out of the area. The job loss as a percentage of the work force is about equal to what happened in LA in the early 90's when the defense industry collapsed.

 

There really isn't any job growth. Jobs becoming available are either temp only (3-6 month contracts), or are coming at the expense of others. For example, the company I am at now needed to hire two application developers in their IT department. So, two people in the IT support group were laid off to make room for them.

 

That is not the sign of a recovering job market.

 

I recently took a drive through part of Santa Clara... never before have I seen so many abandoned office buildings. On one block every building was empty. It was creepy. Many buildings or complexes has space for lease, and the lease prices continue to fall.

 

Outsourcing also continues despite a glut of qualified programmers who would gladly take less money to be able to work in their fields again.

 

Real estate is still hot. There are no slowdowns anywhere so far. People continue to leverage to buy second and third properties and rent them. A guy I know is doing this but is struggling to have his renters pay up.

 

Rental market is good. All the big complexes have vacancies and will give out at least one month of free rent. Property managers are doing good deals to get people to stay. Prices are still higher than what they were in the early to mid 90's though.

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Quanex to consolidate, sell plants in New Albany

 

Associated Press

 

 

NEW ALBANY, Miss. - Quanex Corp. will consolidate operations and then sell its two Piper Impact plants in New Albany, company officials said this week.

 

Piper Impact employed 700 in 2002, but jobs have dwindled to about 350 in the past two years, said Jeff Galow, a spokesman for Houston-based Quanex.

 

http://www.sunherald.com/mld/sunherald/new...ate/8348133.htm

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One of my fears is the possibility of a sudden crash, which for some reason I am not participating in, or even worse, stuck on the wrong side. Isn't that partly what underlies this bull/bear long/short discussion that keeps returning to the thread?

 

Yet the more I look at charts and price behaviour, the more I realise this fear is probably not very rational.

 

Not too long ago I posted a chart of the 1987 crash, which showed distinctly how the market went into total meltdown the day it fell through the 200dma.

MWH:

 

One possible strategy is to start laddering in shorts once the 5-day ARMS reaches a new low, after 5 - 7 up days in a row.

 

Then, add as we go down, and make sure you are 100% short when the 50-day is busted.

 

In between the 50-day and 200-day, it gets dicey.

 

Heros could switch to the long side at the 200-day if the volume dries up and we have a couple of 90% down days like we had two weeks ago.

 

If the volume picks up and the TRIN readings don't get out of hand, then just hang on to your shorts, and the market will probably crash right through the 200-day.

 

Of course, with billions of eyeballs gaming the same "support" lines, lots of fakeouts could occur. In fact, its possible we go sideways for 3 more days, then gap back down under the 50-day, leaving a 4-day "Island Turd".

 

Same thing could happen in reverse, right below the 200-day.

 

Very difficult market to play.

 

My preferred bear market scenario would be a slow, grinding decline, where the VIX and the VXN actually go lower on the occasional bounces, getting even more dip buyers in.

 

Last month's "crashette" created too much fear and way too many shorts were piled on too quickly, thus explaining the huge explosion in the fear gauge readings.

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LLD: I hear you, great post, yours as well Yobob. Listen, I may have told you I part own/manage a temp staffing firm. Believe me, I have never seen the job mkt in such tatters. Obviously that number yd was total bullshit. The fact that bonds blew up, with all the leverage and the crowded carry trade, will take its toll on stocks, however, for 20+ years, stock guys have ALways been the last to get the picture.

Thanks Soup

 

My employer Air Canada just got hit with some very bad news yesterday. Victor Li of Trinity Time Investments,{he WAS going to bail us out}, has decided to take his 650 million and run. As we have been in CCAA which is similar to your chapter 11 our future is grim with liquidation a very real possibility. The restructuring deadline is 2 weeks away. :( :(

There are no other interested suitors so we are on our own with billions in debt and unions that refuse to compromise. We are looking at 35000 employees unemployed and probably another 20 thousand that would be affected in secondary associated industries. As they say it is a recession when it hits your neighbor and a depression when it affects you. How the market just rolls along in its own little world ignoring job losses, {as Sleddog has so generously updated us on} is gross disconnect. The economy is 65% the consumer whose numbers are being depleted daily regardless of what the bullshit artists say. And now we are losing liquidity with the spike in yields yesterday. Yet all I see on the threads today is bullishness. What a setup. The bond is all as I said 6 months ago. This reversal in yields will drive a stake through this madness. There is something much larger going on here. They are throwing away the last lifeboat by letting the bond go. I'm with B4 as always. The bullishness on a bear site gives me even more reason to stay the course.

 

By the way Doc

Outstanding annals. Anyone out there that has been hesitating to pay up, now is the time. Docs feed and bond observations are worth 10 times the price of admission. I have a feeling his subscription base is about to go parabolic

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the 50 day, 200 day, cycles, e-waves, straight tech have given signals that we all use or have used. But I can tell you in 1987 when it crashed everyone was in. But the Bears didn't see it coming very, very few made any money on the short side because it happened too fast. Now with the World wired and everything instantaneous it could blow up in a millisecond setting off a chain reaction across the world. I believe when it happens there won't be a signal, I don't think the patient will get gradually more sick or sick enough for us to take notice of the impending implosion. I think the patient will die of a heart attack in mid-step. I don't agree with Bob Prechter as a market forecaster but I sure agree with him when he says- "You have to be short-the risk is just too great." I don't mean stupid short I mean "take some home with you." ;)

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the 50 day, 200 day, cycles, e-waves, straight tech have given signals that we all use or have used. But I can tell you in 1987 when it crashed everyone was in. But the Bears didn't see it coming very, very few made any money on the short side because it happened too fast. Now with the World wired and everything instantaneous it could blow up in a millisecond setting off a chain reaction across the world. I believe when it happens there won't be a signal, I don't think the patient will get gradually more sick or sick enough for us to take notice of the impending implosion. I think the patient will die of a heart attack in mid-step. I don't agree with Bob Prechter as a market forecaster but I sure agree with him when he says- "You have to be short-the risk is just too great." I don't mean stupid short I mean "take some home with you." ;)

I went short the spoos in August of 87'. No joke. B) (my first "bear trade")

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