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B4 The Bell Thursday March 18, 2004


Guest yobob1

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however, after today I am more bearish , these guys are desperate. WGAF about binny, the economy is imploding and the debt is starting to crush folks. This pig is going a lot lower, as I said yd, we may have to wait until all of expiration is out of the way first.

Well, they can wave him around, and prop the markets anyway. They don't actually have to capture him, just spread rumors about nearly capturing him, then jam the markets.

 

I thought Al Leeson drained the punchbowl 5.25 billion today, so any propping would have been difficult, given generally bad news. I wonder sometimes if some of the rises are more due to short covering, combined with insane purchasing behavior of people who think it only goes up. There's still a fairly high bull percentage out there.

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however, after today I am more bearish , these guys are desperate. WGAF about binny, the economy is imploding and the debt is starting to crush folks. This pig is going a lot lower, as I said yd, we may have to wait until all of expiration is out of the way first.

Ya Soup

Come next week they are going to have to pull Binny out for real and still the rally will run out of gas after an hour.

Is it just me or is everyone feeling like POR is closer then most think?

You get a feel for the markets after thousands of hours watching the tape.

It seems the BS is having less and less of an effect.

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Futures are up nicely above fair value as the news networks spin the demise of Al Zawhiri as soon as dawn breaks-Musharaff has an interview with CNN at 10 EST maybe he will have his head on a plate by then. A surreal, Circus atmosphere-"Send in the Clowns!" ;)

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Futures are up nicely above fair value as the news networks spin the demise of Al Zawhiri as soon as dawn breaks-Musharaff has an interview with CNN at 10 EST maybe he will have his head on a plate by then.  A surreal, Circus atmosphere-"Send in the Clowns!" ;)

Looking for 1137ish or 1096 whichever comes first. However, we could stop at Doc's number as well. :wink2:

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This chart is getting ready to throw a preliminary buy.

 

I got lucky and had a good hand going into today. Took profits on shorts and on some metals too. Got a nice slide on DRI from the top and covered half. And with NGAS up aftermarket tomorrow should be ok. I don't mind scam week - just take profits when I see them and cut looses quick.

 

Doc's Stoolcities call about noon made me cover QQQ for pocket change and avoid a loss. Excellent calls herein as well.

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Well, as I indicated about two weeks ago, the Fed has for unknown reasons abandoned what was a short, tentative, two month policy (in January and February) of accelerating its injections of new money in the market. These injections usually show up as repos of Treasury bills. Lately the Fed has been taking back that little ease by letting the repos expire ? reducing the pool of total repos outstanding. Even with the convexity collapse we had in bond-market interest rates when the latest unemployment figures came out, the Fed has not been behind the effort to keep yield curve down (at least not officially).

 

Looking at the monetary base, which is the sum of the money (mostly Treasury securities and repos) under the Fed?s control, a decided topping pattern is in progress. Were it not for the heavy intervention by Japan to support the US$, this type of Fed activity would indicate market liquidity will dry up soon.

 

This week?s most interesting monetary developments again did not take place at the Fed meeting at the Eccles Building in Washington, but at the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance. The special repo pool created by a January agreement between the BOJ and MOF has now been expanded to about 11 trillion yen - about $105 billion. This amount is now more than twice the size of the largest Fed repo pool under normal operations. This is pure fiat-money here, but the Japanese do plan to reverse that amount at a later date ? when market conditions allow. If you consider the BOJ and MOF as two central banks, the monetary base of Japan (already more than 50% larger than the US?s) is growing at a 50% annual rate in the first ten weeks of 2004 ? as compared to the 16% official year over year rate for the BOJ alone. This money explosion is where worldwide liquidity is coming from.

 

Money supply measures advanced a little more, Doc will cover that later in his weakend Feed report. The outlook based on the above monetary figures ? still good for precious metals and energy, but mediocre at best for US markets.

 

The manic intervention to support the US$ that started early in the New Year is still

showing up weekly in the week?s Fed ?custody? figures. Marketable securities held in custody for foreign central banks by the Fed as of 3/17 increased by $7 billion after strong gains in January and early February. Looking back over a longer period of the last 21 weeks, custody holdings increased by ~ $213 billion - or ~ an annualized rate around $416 billion. By the way, custody holdings might not, and probably don?t include all US$ intervention activity. There are many intervention dollars held for other uses ? in China and Korea they are turning over part of their foreign exchange reserves in US dollars to banking and loan industries.

 

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/

 

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2

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Futures are up nicely above fair value as the news networks spin the demise of Al Zawhiri as soon as dawn breaks-Musharaff has an interview with CNN at 10 EST maybe he will have his head on a plate by then. A surreal, Circus atmosphere-"Send in the Clowns!" ;)

"TOP"

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Sometimes as a BEAR I doubt what I believe and THEN everytime my BEARISH views are reinforced by the Idiots who we call Government. The headline in the Vancouver Sun today read-"Special Forces prepare for al-Qaida attack on B.C. coast"-it seems our Task Force 2 Commando's have been told that Bomb laden freighters could slam into our off shore oil rigs, harbours etc then on our National news I see a sound bite with a paranoid Republican Congressman named Tom Tancredo who who wants our common border to become "the Maginot line" cause if "Bin Laden landed in Canada we would give him refugee status." No Tom-we'd hang him! But the real question is HOW and WHY did we come to this absurd state-spending dwindling resources massively to fight a wraith-Al Qaida is cooked, finished, their number 2 is about to be splattered all over an Afghan mountainside yet we in North America continue to fortify like Armageddon is underway. Economically it is without a doubt but this other stuff is fear mongering at its worst in my view!

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