Guest yobob1 Posted May 31, 2003 Report Share Posted May 31, 2003 [How does this all end? Let's abstract the entire US situation to that of a single family. A family with a 90% LTV mortgage on the house, $30k on the credit card bills, and flat to declining earnings. All it takes is a single shock and this family goes in bankruptcy. An illness. A bad car accident. A meritless but expensive suit. It doesn't amtter. . You left out the two car payments whose values are plunging as Detroit increases incentives (that's called slashing prices in most parts of the world). Then there's those pesky new bills that most families didn't have 5 to 10 years ago: cable, cell, internet. I tell you everywhere you look these days there's somebody standing with their hand out demanding a payment. Despite all the BS statistics, aggregate incomes are slipping badly. All you have to do is look at the tax revenues either at state levels or from our buddies over at the IRS. Same goes for sales figures.......look at sales tax revenues. This is in spite of all the money pumping and rate herding. If this latest volley was aimed at saving Buska's bacon, it was ill timed; far too premature. However they had no choice. If they failed to intervene now the economy would have started crashing to a level that it couldn't be "rescued" from in time for the elections. The bad news is the more they pump now the more likely they will cause the very implosion they are attempting to stave off. The currency markets are going to get very interesting as each attempts to devalue their currency to keep their export advantage. The problem is of course everyone wants cheap money, except for Bush of course. Does the world have any choice but to buy up more dollars? We'll soon find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted May 31, 2003 Report Share Posted May 31, 2003 You left out the two car payments whose values are plunging as Detroit increases incentives (that's called slashing prices in most parts of the world). Then there's those pesky new bills that most families didn't have 5 to 10 years ago: cable, cell, internet. I tell you everywhere you look these days there's somebody standing with their hand out demanding a payment. You are not kidding! I just checked out the identical Dodge GRand Caravan we bought 3 years ago for $24k and it is not $18.9k AND comes with a 0%/60 'loan'. And there's 150 to choose from. Right now. Please come in, we'll treat you good. I bet I could go in there with $15k cash and make a deal. We're talking a 30%-40% hit to their take/vehicle. And GM has a pension shortfall that is greater than their market cap. And negative net assets. How does one make money playing the fact that our airlines and car manufacturuers are likely to be nationalized by the end of the decade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted June 1, 2003 Report Share Posted June 1, 2003 How does one make money playing the fact that our airlines and car manufacturuers are likely to be nationalized by the end of the decade? Just look at Amtrak. A vehicle guided by two heavy tracks and no competition. They can't keep them upright either financially or literally. Make money? Short the insurers, go dong on lawyers. Come to think of it one should dong the lawyers at all times. (Don't dwell on that thought too much ) So now that you can buy a new minivan for at least 5K less than you paid, what do you suppose has happened to the auction value of your 3 yr old one? It's probably half of what it would have been in an otherwise normal market. Now if you're the standard finance for 5 or 6 year Joe, you will owe more than it's market value for almost the full term of the loan. Don't feel bad...think about the poor shmuck that bought the Lincoln Navigator in July of 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted June 1, 2003 Report Share Posted June 1, 2003 HRFF is going about reading posts the usual way - bASSackward FURom the 'rear' to the front. Blame it on Stool's physiological orientation... BARE is in a hurry - he's off to go fishin' after a week of technical difficulties and no biz done. There's a lot that has been said here. He'll start off w a response to Threadbare, who said she married into a comfortable life/style: Two daze ago BARE read a old copy of the London FT lying about. It had an article on the mASSive sums that Britz need to generate even modest retirement income - presuming a declining/devaluing/deflating currency doesn't compound their plight. Wanna know what it said? Find a rich partner! FUR those of you w access to the FT it is the weekend ed Apr 26/27 - Phillip Coggan's regular column The Long View, entitled "A Suitable Match". Here's the last paragraph or two: "Those people in defined benefit pension plans, where the employer bears the investment risk, should count their blessings, and pray that their employer remains solvent." (at this HRFF did a ROFLMAZZOFF routine, in light of what Mr. Martin Weiss haz to say about THAT subj) "For everyone else, the only hope might be to latch on to the few bachelors ands spinsters with the necessary wherewithal. All together now: 'It is a truth universally acknowledged....'" "MIGHT" be??? LOLOL BARE wuz lucky - he had a great education (don't ASSk how he's USING it!). He's most dismayed that legions of youngsters, having impoverished their parents with tuition bills of staggering size, are now going to be unable to find work in this jobless 'recovery' we keep hearing about. Some of his young cousins are being FURced to find work overseas, teaching English, etc. Don't bump yurselves off yet. There have been chaotic times throughout history. The Russians have endured horrendous "downsizing" somehow, FUR example, and the end of "consumerism", there. We can, too....can't we? "Tomorrow is ANOTHER day!" Scarlet O'Hara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted June 2, 2003 Report Share Posted June 2, 2003 Oh, I believe it. I just don't believe his timing. It's going to take a couple of decades - not a couple of years. The powers that be have trmendous resourcces to fight it. They will fail at the end, of course - but they can prolong the fight for quite a while... Not only isn't the glass half full - the glass is broken, the spilled water has evaporated, and the glass shards have started to melt. Regards, Vesselin bontchie arent you violating one of your precepts?--Never predict what is beyond what the CHARTTS are indicating to you -now! Using decades (plural) means at least 20 years; so doesnt that violate your rule of limited temporal boundaries? Why are you so certain that 3 or 4 or 5 yrs wont bring a n event,perhaps of volcanic intensity,that may trigger the END? oR TOMMOROW OR THE NEXT MONTH?? iN MODERN historical astrology maybe the past 20 years,the cisalpine side of the stock market mountain has a different velocity and acceleration mode than the transalpine side ,and thus forecasting may require different models--- sincerely bdrech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted June 2, 2003 Report Share Posted June 2, 2003 If I mis-represent Dok's position, I'm sorry, it's my fault... Doesn't the Good Doktor say over and over that everything is driven by liquidity? Are we not swimming more than ever in liquidity, as per the MoGauge, etc? So the liquidity provided by Sir Alan will drive all the market bubbles up, until they can't go up anymore. The sheeple will believe until they can't believe anymore. While we may think that will happen soon, those in the Government, including the Fed, are betting that it will not, maybe never. IMVHO, the 10 Sigma will be that moment, not some external event that can be assuaged by more liquidity. icky if you look at doks feedometer and the charts youll see the crazy angle at which AL-MONEY (a neologism charecterising big al's separation from common sense) is represented as increasing-- Now go to his other charts, and his commentary, where he describes the bank loans flat-lining, and asks the question:Wher in the hell is allof this sh*tpaper diassapearing to??? A deep mystery? or is it being burnt up in massive bankruptcies??? How is addition turning into subtractioin???? bdrech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted June 2, 2003 Report Share Posted June 2, 2003 My guess is that things won't be as bad as most on this board think, at least for those who have some skills and other 'human capital' to draw upon. What will really upset people is the lowered standard of living and end of the culture of consumerism. If I'm wrong and it turns out to be a Mad Max future, I wouldn't want to hang around anyway. what have u got against a culture wher you can actually have the fun of whering a necklace of skulls around your neck???? bdrech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jrmfl Posted June 2, 2003 Report Share Posted June 2, 2003 what have u got against a culture wher you can actually have the fun of whering a necklace of skulls around your neck????bdrech curious bd, but are those shruken skulls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jrmfl Posted June 2, 2003 Report Share Posted June 2, 2003 heaven's to betsy, now asia's talking about dumping even more dollars... and building their own, very special multilateral currency... ie eurasian dollar. as susan powder once said: " stop the insanity " good for gold though... poor uncle buck, even viagra od's can't keep up this wooden nickel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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