Guest Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 I know this may not be the place but I shall say now.......Serious folks it's time for thoughts and prayers for the fighters and families in the coming days......and of course those innocent who will suffer as well.....Peace looks far away at moment...but there is still time for our prayers.....enough of my ranting......suffice to say we are all the lucky ones.......God bless...... that's all....... :cry: To which I say AMEN! Perhaps there's still time for them to influence the guy with the cigar and his two sons to select the early retirement option. Thank you, Oyster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 Greg, Most people incorrectly intrept the Vix as a fear guage. In fact it measures implied volatility which can be bid up in a down market or an up market. It is best to consider the VIX as odds on that an out of the money option will become an in the money option. I see two potential reasons for the VIX; level one bearish, one bullish. 1) Size call buyers have bid up volatility levels 2) Option dealers scrambling to cover short gamma in front of expiration #2 is consitent with the recent moves which appear to be largely driven by dynamic hedging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 Greg, Most people incorrectly intrept the Vix as a fear guage. In fact it measures implied volatility which can be bid up in a down market or an up market. It is best to consider the VIX as odds on that an out of the money option will become an in the money option. I see two potential reasons for the VIX; level one bearish, one bullish. 1) Size call buyers have bid up volatility levels 2) Option dealers scrambling to cover short gamma in front of expiration #2 is consitent with the recent moves which appear to be largely driven by dynamic hedging That's the dilemma as I see it. And most of the possible scenarios implied by the low p/c ratio today and the green QQV and VXN seem bullish to me. Only bearish one is where small traders are rabidly buying calls "at any price" today. Seems unlikely. So I'd guess that this rally will stick this week, and hold above maxpain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 "Last September retired Marine General Paul Van Riper was selected to play the Opposing Forces (OPFOR) Commander named Saddam Hussein for a 3-week-long, computer simulated invasion of Iraq, called Operation Millennium Challenge. He defeated the entire multi-billion-dollar US electronic warfare intelligence apparatus by sending messages via motorcycle-mounted couriers to organize the preemptive destruction of sixteen US ships, using pleasure vessels. At that point, the exercise controllers repeatedly intervened and told him what to do; move these defenders off the beach. Stop giving out commands from mosque loudspeakers. Turn on your radar so our planes can see you. Because every time Van Riper was left to his own devices, he was defeating the US." thor, i read that too. as i remember he had some choice words for the mentality of the folks who kept rigging the game. hey, maybe he'd like the stool. oy - thanks for articulating that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 Isn't it amazing how the market can be so volatile, then go perfectly absolutely flat for an hour? Oops, gotta write a 1:00 commentary for the Anals. Later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweefraapp Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 oex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 squared at 62.50...much to do....see ya at 1400.....in the bin and ring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 1:00 Update in your Anals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 What scares me is which way it breaks once the volatility resumes. I may have to wait a bit for that. Crapvision reporter Hampton P. reporting a tobacco farmer has driven his tractor into a pond by the Fed building and is making his stand of protest there. Not sure about what, but I would guess he's pissed about something. As a result, secutity zone expanded around the building. Really bizarre! We have had people crash their Cessna airplanes into the building, Hazmat teams evacuating the building, and now a farmer protesting with his tractor. Fed building is sure getting a lot of attention these days through various activities of pissed off people. Machinehead would love this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 COF 10-k has some interesting developments. Seems some of the securitizations that were used to boost earnings the last few quarters need to be written down but. If the market remains flat or starts to weaken I will be looking to short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 here is a chart that mbe used as a proxy for the bear market rally.....we had a 14 week decline so if we correct 50% of the time line that gives us 7 weeks of rally The down move from 117.96 to 82.47 looks like a nice completed 5 wave structure.... do we get a corrective ABC next? Fib levels are 104 +/- 62% 100 +/- 50% 96 +/- 38% 110 looks like it should cap the rally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 Forensic bounce. If market at all down into 1:30 we could easily see small time hoods play the typical trend up into the awful Lizard's terrible delivery, this is common. Depends on where tape is in 20 minutes. For now I got my bounce and am out of dong scalp, must return to clutches of insatiable Swedish divorcee. This midday booty should provide for cheese,wine and chocolate expenditures thru personal time window. Blonde booty is excellent as well. Booty for booty. Payments must be made. best,buddhabooty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pigeon Drop Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 Dead calm. It is eerie. And not much activity here either. Did the market close for a half day already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 vulgar, only somewhat on-topic, but of rich thematic value: this is true. i was thinking earlier about what a fantastic dump the market needs to take now that it's been all jammed up with flagpoles. a real foot-long stool. and THEN outside the front door, i discovered a present left by a large (or at least long) dog: a real foot-long stool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted March 18, 2003 Report Share Posted March 18, 2003 Forensic bounce. If market at all down into 1:30 we could easily see small time hoods play the typical trend up into the awful Lizard's terrible delivery, this is common. Depends on where tape is in 20 minutes. For now I got my bounce and am out of dong scalp, must return to clutches of insatiable Swedish divorcee. This midday booty should provide for cheese,wine and chocolate expenditures thru personal time window. Blonde booty is excellent as well. Booty for booty. Payments must be made. best,buddhabooty Let's ALL hope that Buddah isn't "short". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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