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B4 The Bell Humpday July 21


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More of the strong growth that the Lizard King predicted:

 

 

The Washington trade group's purchase index, a gauge of new loan requests for home purchases, fell last week by 6.1 percent to 440.3 from 468.8 in the prior week.

 

The Washington trade group's seasonally adjusted refinancing index decreased by 0.7 percent to 1,651.1 from previous week's 1,662.4. [/i]

 

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?t...storyID=5729309

It fell 6.1% in ONE WEEK???

 

Aren't we in the midst of the selling season for homes?

 

The entire globe needs the Ten Year Yield to collapse.

 

Might as well bet on it.

According to Money/CNN it was the huge upsurge of .1% in rates that cooled demand. Geeze I wonder what 1% would do?

 

If there's any speck of sanity left on the planet spreads should be opening up to reflect the increased risk of lending $300,000 to illegal immigrants for a zero down, interest only mortgage. BWTFDIK

 

Frankly I think you're starting to see the satruation effect. They're running out of potential buyers with a pulse. Time to do a little grave robbing.

ran long here -

 

lots of "secondary markets" are getting a boost from refi pigs and 1031-morons (like me). im pretty sure we're slowing here (absent another boost) - the sales closing now were negotiated like 3-5 months ago when the rate outlook was less "measured, " so some folks may be missing the turn. we are still seeing "hot market" money ripple out to other markets (very strongly at the moment) and i expect this to continue toward YE-2004. if we really are slowing, the contraction will ripple through other markets, just as the mania did, but i suspect it will be slower than anticpated. lower prices will not be recognized by the masses until thanksgiving. some markets like denver are already contracting noticeably.

 

it is very difficult to make sense of alot of prices in many markets - but then again, 1031-morons are dealing with relative situations, not Market Value. leverage is still king, so a cash buyer in an exchange (like me) is gonna get a haircut. if the govt indexed cap gains for inflation, id just pay the taxes and sit tight.

 

my world tour starts at 3 am tomorrow with alotta ground to cover. right now im considering buying a small house and paying some taxes on the monies that dont get exchanged - not my first choice, i want income, but i suspect smaller homes in desirable locales will hold up better than the $1M level. i wonder at people with 3/4M looking to buy $3M project as a 20% drop in value will all but wipe out 100% of equity (after sales costs are added in).

 

now back to the regularly scheduled matrix program.

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Greenie just said that "it is clear that the Carry Trade is in the process of unwinding now"

 

When in fact, those in the Carry Trade proclaimed as recently as yesterday that they are as involved now as they ever were.

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LOL- from todays National Post.."Fighting Evil while they Drive"...A native operated Gas and Tobacco retailer in upstate New York is running Radio Ads that trumpet its use Of Canadian Crude oil as a way for Americans to battle Terrorism in the middle east...a region where people hate us and our way of life...the print version of the Ads for the Big Indian Smokeshop runs with the headline..."Hey Saudi Arabia, go sell your Gas to France. I'm getting 100% North American Gas at Big Indian"...the crude all comes from Canada our good Neighbour to the North" Good on them we don't need no stinking Saudi crude! ;)

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"We have a fundamental problem here in America in that we are willing to import and consume more from others relative to our own income levels than they are willing to import from us and consume relative to their own income levels."

 

Obviously the answer then is not to get us to reduce our overspending relative to our income levels, but to compel the rest of the world to spend one hell of a lot more than they make...all on American goods no less.

 

Yup...that's the only answer to the trade defecit.

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What a bummer:

 

"ASK Research servers are located in Calgary, Canada and the area our electric grid suffered a major power surge believed to be caused by lightening. Our system is supposed to be protected from power surges by a device called a UPC. That and other backup power systems obviously fell short of their promised performance and we were knocked out. We have been putting things back together and should be back to normal soon but we have lost all of our intraday data and that data will have to be accumulated over a number of days to make meaningful intraday charts again."

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