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Not to To Worry


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I love the Rockies. Last year I went MTBing in the BC Rockies, and this year we went to Utah.

 

Talk about crapping your pants.

 

Fast forward to about 4'00" in this clip of Porcupine Rim from my helmetcam (sound disabled by The Man):

 

 

...

 

I've done Porc Rim trail twice in late 90s. Superb riding, but I admit I walked some sections along the Jackass canyon. While technically rideable at my skill level any fall to the right side would be 100% death. Fortunately the majority of the trail has no exposure at all. Moab area is beautiful and outlandish, I think everyone must visit it at least once in his life.

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It is indeed possible, althought not imaginable. Now. What I want to add: Even the mass media says that the current so called "financial crisis" is the worst since the 1930s. Unbelievable amounts of money getting pumped into the system.... and so on. I ask: Given that, WHY should we NOT go to unbeleivable LOW stock market levels? Wouldnt that rhym? To me it would be very logical to see the Dow at 2500 or something like that. If it happens we will see, but I wouldnt be shocked to see it.

 

here is the Dow monthly with log fibo (blue) and lin fibo (red)

 

5775 is the next target, maybe in the next few weeks, if we get acceleration to the downside which is likely given the effin ugly monthly close on friday. That we see 4157 during the course of this mega bear market is quite likely since there we have also the monthly SMA 500 (see, once the 200 is broken and lost, price tries to find next significant MA), before we see 2844 we maybe need to get a complete bull wave first, but it cant be ruled out that we see it also during this bear market.

 

Fact is: Fridays monthly close was so damn ugly... the chart simply looks as bearish as it can get.

 

I've posted this before but I personally think it is important enough for another post. I think that when analyzing century long charts we need to correct them for inflation. Like this one here.

 

dj-lt-infl.gif

description here:

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dj-infl.htm

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On Austrian discussion - while I completely agree with their monetary views there is one thing I do not buy. I think that a tendency to grow the company size eventually forming monopolies will be equally strong in unregulated and monetary sound economies. Once average economic entity size grows the interaction between them will become less and less market-like. They will tend to stick in highly suboptimal Nash equilibrium state.

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I love the Rockies. Last year I went MTBing in the BC Rockies, and this year we went to Utah.

 

Talk about crapping your pants.

 

Fast forward to about 4'00" in this clip of Porcupine Rim from my helmetcam (sound disabled by The Man):

 

 

or 2'30" in this clip of the Hurricane cliffs trails

 

 

or most anything from this of Thunder Mountain

 

 

I am afraid of heights and where I am going slowly it is because I am very very very afraid.

 

2941217623_6ddd95266d.jpg

 

2939935673_fb9daacb15.jpg

 

 

 

That was one awesome video on the Porcupine Ridge. I am way too old to be riding a bike anywhere, but I love taking the 4 WD trails around Moab. Will be going there in two weeks over sping break, as I do every year. I will probably drive down the Shafer Trail from Canyonlands National Park into Moab. Spectacular scenery all the way! And about all the hairpin turns and drops to instant death that I can handle.

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a hapless public, fooled once in the late 1990's tech stock bubble, and fooled again in the run-up back to the top in the Dow and S&P, only to see their common stocks crash again, converting their former 401k's into 201k's the first time and 101k's the second time, won't be fooled again

 

to be duped again? a three-time loser? no way

 

common stocks will be shunned for a generation

 

but gold.....ah, yes, it's overbought......but who has lost money in gold the last few years? nobody, save for a few reckless short-term traders

 

gold is glittering, gold is a winner

 

if the public ever gets any extra cash, they will put it in gold, to feel like a winner in something again

 

the collective mindset is conditioned now for higher gold prices

 

common stocks?

 

fergit about it

 

but gold? yes

 

at the cocktail parties and tailgate parties and family holiday get-togethers who wants to admit they own common stocks, or investment condos in Floriduh? nope, everybody's gotta get at least some gold, so they can say yup we're in gold

 

it will take a long time for the gold bull market to end

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Some liberals come from common stock and have worked every day of their f'n lives. Do not make me get all protestant on your (jick) ass.

of course some liberals have to work

there are both unsuccessful people and successful people of all persuasions

he didn't say no liberals work

he was referring to a minority of liberals in a particular location

I don't think it's a matter of financial success

it's a choice to believe what you want to believe

Who actually makes that choice is a much more interesting question

for those who understand that

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BRK A BUY

 

Now sells for near book of $70k.

 

To think it sold for $147K - twice book value - it was seen as a safe haven.

 

Doug Kass was absolutely right to short it.

 

It was a "Last man standing" stock - the sort of stock everyone rushes to to hide in in the storm - until it gets blown down at the end.

 

Someone should invent a term for such stocks - how about "straw refuge" stocks

 

So got really overvalued like GS - another "straw refuge" stock

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