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Snippet from ISM report

 

In Short Supply

 

No commodities reported in short supply.

 

Up in Price

 

Aluminum - 2nd month; Aluminum Extrusions; Beef - 2nd month; Brass

- 2nd month; Chemicals; Copper - 5th month; Copper Cathode; Ethylene;

Freight; Natural Gas - 17th month; Nickel - 5th month; Plywood;

Polyethylene Resin; Stainless Steel - 3rd month; Steel - 3rd month;

Steel Plates; and Steel Tubing.

 

Down in Price

 

Corrugated Cartons - 10th month.

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Bris:

 

All of your indicators on that chart are pointing up...so stay away from any thoughts of shorting that thing. TA matters a lot less than forensics right now though. Perfect shorting set ups are just hung out to dry when the boys see them. Check out the chart of JNPR as a perfect example. It had broken its up trend channel (view it on the one year and the two year as well), and had a great looking negative divergence, where the Relative Strength was lower by far than the last time it was up here...and it had put in its first lower high in many months. Everybody saw the set up as the perfect shorting opportunity, therefore the bulls waited for the maximum short interest before they literally attacked it with market orders and blew out every stop today. This is the game that has been played to perfection for over a year.

 

On the other hand, NCEN was a favorable short call if you believed that the tooth fairy was going to unleash unbelievable positive economic news, as he did today, and that the 10 year treasury yield would spike up causing higher mortgage lending rates, and a collapse of stocks related to housing.

 

Remember that the bulls have been using perfect short set ups to make all of their money, by causing squeezes when they occur. I'm short RCL, NCEN, SNS, TGT and MGG.

 

Check out the MGG chart. It's as high as its been in the past year, yet they lost the revenue from Sigfried and Roy and they are a terror target...and the Relative Strength is below 50 while the stock trades at a 52 week high...negative divergence.

 

Can they game it higher by attempting a squeeze? Sure. Check out RCL's action today. Did I know they were going to take it 10 cents above its obvious resistance level to take out the stops set above 35? Yup. Can they run it on me from here? Maybe. If you owned this for the past year, and had all that profit, would you leave your money on the table with this chart...with the threat of terror, and no reason for the Fed to defend your stock?

 

There's no science that can help your trading and no rules for TA that will tell you whether or not the set ups are going to work to your benefit or the other side's.

 

Think like a criminal. I shorted SNS at the top today because I saw MCD's Mad Cow short squeeze coming to an end...cattle furtures were actually trading again, so a floor had been put in place where the cost of beef was concerned, the likelihood remains that ground beef products will be viewed less favorably by the public for a time, this company receives no foreign exchange rate benefit, the trend toward the Atkins diet does not favor a burger/bun joint, and their trading volume has been declining and it's near its 52 week high, with a negative divergence on the relative strength.

 

It doesn't present itself as a screaming short...and its not big enough or important enough to be gamed by the big boys...it should perform worse than MCD...seems fairly safe.

 

None of this stuff matters...it's all gambling. You can put the odds in your favor if you identify a stock near an apparent top with apparent exhaustion in interest and a story that works against them. That's the best you can hope for until the market decides to head south and puts some wind at your back.

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Follow the indicators.

 

Most traders who shorted this market, especially after the golden crosses last year (10wkMA crossed a rising 30wkMA; sometime in May) generally got hurt. The answer is short and clear as daylight, especially on the weekly chart.

 

chart.asp?symb=spx&compidx=aaaaa:0&ma=3&maval=10,30&uf=0&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=2&type=4&size=2&state=11&sid=3377&style=350&time=9&freq=2&comp=NO_SYMBOL_CHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=6730&mocktick=1&.gif

 

 

Of course, the 50% retracement level is a reasonable 'guess' at a 'wave 2' target, but how does that make me coin on Monday? This still looks bullish and long is mathematically correct, until proven otherwise.

 

SPX monthly.

 

engine.asp?skin=marketscreen&split=1&pri=&time=&cname=&lcprice=&symbol=spx&indicator=8,12,26,9;34,,,;48,,,;64,9,,&dur=5y&freq=2&intr=&type=4&width=480&height=360&.gif

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Why is there so much debate about what is causing the decline in M2 / M3?? Whoever collects the data, can't they break it down so we can tell what is shrinking?

Uh, isn't that what I do every week?

 

Posts like this really, really piss me off.

 

Who am I? What the hell am I doing? Running a public service free message board site, I guess. It's obvious that about four people pay any attention at all to my research. The other 4000 could care less.

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Col Dashley

YUK! So they're trottin out Abby again after 3 yrs...what a revoltin development!

 

WOW--look at the panic buying of the DOW from 4-4:15pm and the Russell

up a strong 5 pts-couldn't be more bullish!

 

DJIA Index(CBOT) Mar 10470 10510 10366 10398 -17 1/2/2004 4:23pm

 

S & P 500(CME) Mar 1113.50 1118.00 1103.50 1108.90s -1.70 1/2/2004 4:21p

 

NASDAQ 100(CME) Mar 1477.00 1483.00 1460.00 1466.50s -4.50 1/2/2004 13:21 1467.00

 

Russell 2000(CME) Mar 557.50 565.50 557.50 562.25s +5.05 1/2/2004 13:21

Russell 2000 E-Mini(Globex) Mar 560.20 565.20 557.70 562.30s +5.10 1/2/2004 13:21

 

NASDAQ Composite Index 2011.08 2022.37 1999.77 2006.68 +3.31 1/2/2004

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Consumer loan survey in a declining trend and below 50. WMT is having a tough time. This economy can't go anywhere without the consumer assuming more debt.

Whoops!

 

I guess the bullishness sometimes forgets about where all that purchasing is actually coming from.

 

Never fear - perhaps the government can pick up all the slack and assume the role of the consumer.

 

------------------------------------ Also ---------------------------

 

In a related matter, and in case anyone missed it over on IDS, I re-post here the new and improved government debt figures.

 

12/31/2003        $7,001,312,247,818.28

 

:shocked

 

This from the Treasony's own website.

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True story.

Some years ago I was perusing one of dear old Abby's reports. In it was a chart comparing the total return of the S&P to the thirty year bond. Something looked a bit strange as the S&P was outdistancing the bond by an amount that just did not make sense.

I ran the numbers myself and discovered she had omitted the compound interest on the bond. The chart was simply price performance which, for a bond, is useless for any reasonable period.

I also remember reading her reports in the late 1990s. One comment I remember well because I knew it to be incorrect. After stating S&P earnings results she opined that the earnings were of good quality. The result was a series of write-offs unprecedented in corporate history.

And then there was her recommendation to buy Enron at $30.

 

I could go on but why beat a dead ape?

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Hank,

 

Riverboater has always ment to me one who is gambling. Mo Mo guys.

Yes, presumably the old paddle steamers that operated as casinos, still do for all I know....

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