The End Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Viper, Glad to see you post here. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 When O'Brien and Ord were falling over themselves to go bullish, they never mentioned their favorite indicator, $TICK. The $TICK bottomed at -600 past week at SPX 788. Every intermediate-term bottom has seen a TICK of under -1000 if not more. The bulls say everyone's bearish. Envision a party where drunken fund managers are jumping up and down for joy the 1991 mega-war-rally is almost here, thousands of them in unison holding up the AAII poll as proof of pessimism. Little do they know when the dumb money left, those fund managers became the new dumb money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merciless Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 wooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzaaaaaaaaaaaa ol`a boys and girls, just in from a evening long revelry- started early as we had a good send off for some dearly departed spooz traders that are sadly after yesterday no more................................................................................. .................................................................................................... .......... .................................................................................................... ........... a respectful moment of silence for all those dirtylowdownsumbitches that ever dared fade my bids and squeeze my offers...pricks...still i'll miss em. oh well- so what's new- looks like this 'so called" doji has got stools' antennae up don't buy into it is what i say- its not a doji- heardit hear first. it only looks like one. how do i know- like i always say i'm a trader so i just trade 'em, i've been out there in the afternoon in real doji situations and it feels kinda like the moment right before you are about to pass a really nice fart, either mucho relief in anticipation or mucho anxiety in not sure what will come after, really that's what you feel like with both your bid and your offer making the market. well today it was not that at all!!!!!!!!! it was all shorts refusing to be duped! i could feel the tension from the brokers, like they wanted to just scream buy em but their customers wouldn't let em, afew even related to me at the canteena that they are afraid a few more big boys will be rolled out next week, and since these guys are their brokers i trust their opinions. so stool take that info to bed with a grain of salt. regarding the loss of budda, i think budda will be back shortly, just a hunch, and fartpolio tooo, the market, she is one bitch of a task master. she is always on the watch waiting to stike at any weakness, emotional, physical, mental or spiritual. you have to be built to survive dancing with her cause she'll just tax you like Stalin baby. whoooaaaa. i think budda's batteries are just running low, two wicked trend reversals will and can do that, cause then you start second guessing your first and best moves and after that you cant catch up. from their your confidence just slides down the slippery slope until you just lose your nerve to pull the trigger. And THAT'S when the REAL trouble starts. cause guess who comes knocking on your door then, yup it's THAT bitch- again- ready to turn your $ 500 loser into a scracth or hell even a winner. my advice - dont even open the door- you'll never get back through it alive. swallow hard on that loser and be happpy as a clam, take a drink, a vacation or call a nice soft legged friend up to ease the tension, but whattever you do don't go dancing with that bitch trying to bring back life into your loser- she will NOT spin your thread into gold brother no matter how much you pray or how long you dance- so i hope budda and the others are taking that well desrved time out lettme tell you, cause any time out in this game that you get to call is THE biggest profit you will ever pull out of the old missuss. second up tonite- i wanna say that this board is in danger of becoming a petrified jungle. look people we could all sit around and opine about trend lines, mathematical density functions, waves and tsunamies, shoulders, wedges and arses, BUTT you know what? it all don't amount to the air from a gnat's ass if you never go do it. i luv this board to death, its saved me loads in medication, but i'm fearful that a lot here are gonna go broke, not because of doing something stupid, no not like that, but because how she works, she don't rob you all at once. she's a good grifter, she aims for the steady chiseling, the dime here, fifty cents next week , nickle here, not that much you say, still got my main line to play with, fast forwar six months and it s half gone, inside a year and your dodo- like all the rest. that's how on her game she is- DONT LET THE MARKET DO THIS TO YOU. you have ti get up close and personal , stake out your wad- committ the rest to your wife or just pay off the house- and then manage your money,manage you risk, mange your money, manage your risk , manage your money manage your risk, say it until it becomes etched into your psyche, kinda like the taste of your favorite food, so you cant forget it. then enage the market like you mean business, like its you or her, cause brother the simple truth is, it is. say it to yourself every morning and believeit "its either your money or my money"- plain and simple- don't rationalize it just accept it. either they win or you win. done. no more no less. rubadub said some good things the other night some here got testy with him/her, but rubs was onto it- she's a no named faceless heartless merciless bitch! and all she wants is your money. dont kid yourself into believing the squiggly lines and purty ratios that the struck boys love to offer out like entrails for deciphering. the only way to beat the enemy is to engage the enemy. some here quote SunTzu and i'm happy cause its one of the best pieces of weaponry you can find to take on the bitch. but you gotta be commited unless she'll just chisle away at you . mark my word in the next two years half, mor ethan half the people you know who "play" the market will be gone dodo- why? cause she AINT playing. i wish more here would just trade it, even if its small, just know your limitations and go trade it, you will gain 95% of whatever knowledege it is you think the next guy has inside of two weeks. even though i dont know him i can tell the change in someone like Torah already. he's keen to learn but more than that he's committed to trade it within his own limitations. that's half the friggen battle right there. i can tell just by his tone and his comments, mostly the serene humility of them. if he stays true to his himeslf and takes the necessary time outs i'd friggen stake him if he thought he was ready- man i cant say it enough get to know the lady cause she'll break your ass from a mile away- you cant win the long range battles with her- i sense too many here are trying to do just that. i aint mad or pissed or upset at all, i just like this place a lot and dont want to see people here get chiseled for half their name is all. anyway, i sold those SOX 315 calls yesterday against my 300s did the balanc eof 8 today like i said, and now i got a locked 2-3 dollar credit winner, if the SOX goes out at 315 or 310-bwahahahahahahahahahaahahaha 45* 1500, or 1000!!!!!!!!!!!!! if so then next weekend i'm going to Maui- wyndy brought back some sweet memories. night stool. stay nimble, stay focused and hey smoke 'em rant out. so says i , MERCILESS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charliss Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 ...ol`a boys and girls, just in from a evening long revelry-... Looking in after returning from my own revelry...for a different circumstance. Thanks for the very good post. Best wishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Good Lord Merciless...You make one hell of a Corner Man. All I can say is... Amen and pass the ammunition. Thats good stuff. regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 It doesn't matter how big the bonds or how long until pay day... The economy is what matters and it's ability to function is dependent on 2 things right now... House prices going up forever and interest rates dropping forever to produce exponential consumer credit growth... In 1971 when the gold backed fractional reserve system collapsed and was replaced with a debt backed by debt fractional reserve system or the floating exchange rate system, the only way it could be kept going is by creating more debt per second than the debt created the previous second? DEBT = MONEY = CAPITAL = CREDIT What is money? Debt created out of thin air with compound interest attached that is destroying it?s worth or deflating it?s value? Compound Interest is not created out of thin air unless you consider that in order to pay it back you have to create enough debt to equal what compound interest is? Under this system the 32 trillion dollars in debt in the US system can never be paid off? Eg To pay off 32 Trillion dollars you have to ?borrow? (create out of thin air with compound interest attached) 32 Trillion dollars At most refinanced from 5% per year to 4% then 3% then 1% then basically 0% Is that good? No because it just quickens the end or doomsday of the system because more and more has to be borrowed to keep the banks solvent and profitable? If the prime rate is 6% and the fractional reserve of debt is 10% then the bank makes 60% interest for every dollar they can fractionally reserve or .60 cents profit for every dollar on deposit? but what happens if the banks can?t pyramid the dollar 10 to 1 but only 8 to 1 then the profit is only .48 cents and then what happens if the prime rate has to be lowered down to 4% just to maintain the 8 to 1 level then the profit is down to .32 cents And what does the bank do with all that profit after expenses? They fractionally pyramid it too? but what if borrowing stops? The banks collapse like what is happening in Japan? The only reason that Japan has not collapsed is because they are lower in the world banking hierarchy, the US is the top? Once the US buckles Japan will vaporize in the blink of an eye along with everyone else? 100 year bonds are not going to prevent that? Having a functioning economy will though? but the US economy is broken beyond repair? it is based on the bottom supporting the top? Unless somebody figures out how to stop the unemployment hemorrhage the bottom will collapse and take the top with it? The unemployment rate is a measure of what percentage of the estimated workforce is in receipt of unemployment benefits? Once you run out of benefits you are not counted anymore? and only 60% of the people that find themselves out of work can even claim benefits? all the economic figures are constructed this way so no one can ever be sure what is really going on until it is too late? and as long as ?too late? never shows up it is a bed of roses? Currently every week 100,000 people are dropping from the counted as unemployed list. And 400,000 are hoping on? 2 million a month are sucking eggs and the jobs they get if any don?t equal what they lost while they were in limbo or what they previously made? It is only a matter of time before the ?resilient US economy? I keep hearing about goes poof? Unfortunately I see no way they will be able to prevent the concept of ?too late? from showing up, they will try masking techniques like terrorists or it?s Greenspan or the French? You name it. The printing of 100 year bonds, 1000 year bonds, 100,000 year bonds will just not employ enough people to create enough jobs to stop the unemployment hemorrhage which will ultimately collapse the real estate/consumer credit pyramid ponzi show? Then the real waterfall will begin? you can?t fractionally reserve zero? the further you move away from a realistic system the more ?spectacular? the collapse when ?too late? shows up. There will be no recovery until the banks are bankrupted, the economy collapses, all the debt is wiped out and we start the process all over again? But it won?t be like the great depression, it will be far worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Great post Merciless, hit us with one of those every now and then, will do wonders for our morale.. Hypertiger, couldn't agree more. Unemployment is going to be the trigger for everything to come undone. An investor I know who DOES believe bad times are coming, but still wants to invest, said how about food stocks? Everyone has to buy food, right? Ah yes but how many households will reduce the food budget? Out go the soft drinks, the sara lees, the prepackaged whatnots, the crisps, chocolates, anything not basic to survival. The specials at the supermarket get bought in bulk. Restaurants and takeaways become rare treats. Without even trying 10% could be slashed from the household budget and if every unemployed household does that.... When I decided to become a student trader I had to do a huge rethink on where $$ went. I cycle or use public transport, turn out lights when I leave rooms, handwater the garden, keep telephone calls to a minimum, cook my own food, buy 2nd hand clothing. My office desk is the kitchen table I ate meals off when I was a teenager 40 yrs ago. And guess what, IT'S NOT THAT DIFFICULT. I live simply and happily. But I also own my own place and have no debt which helps a lot. Now I'm making money out of trading, hey, I might even have to pay tax this year :shocked I'm really quite happy to continue with my present lifestyle. I suppose many students will have gone through a similar situation but as I went straight from school to work it was a new experience for me but certainly not a negative one. A lot of people might be about to find out how life on a slim budget works but there's nothing wrong with a challenge.. So what I'm saying Hyper is that things don't look good but there will be many who will rise to the occasion, take control of their lives and survive but sad to say there will be many who will not....but hey maybe its all a part of evolution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 BRILLIANT POST MERCILESS Yes this pimple will pop. Great post about how giving up your rules of trading will deliver you to KALI the goddess of market destruction - she plays for keeps. I think this is not a real bear market rally because the October lows have not been taken out. The real rally has to start lower - around 7000 I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Tanks Merci, agreed. Just following my stops and not being cerebral or forecasting at this point. ANDW down -25% yesterday. That's why I try to stay in as long as possible and not before stops hit. Who really knows where this is really going...NO ONE!? Got a QQQ hedge in place too. Fartpolio left the board a few weeks ago because of a pissing match with someone. I'm on vacation this week...watch your backs and good luck everyone! Remember, don't THINK, follow stops and your predetermined plan. DIE PIG DIE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 If only there was a name for rising prices during a recession. ? Just catching up. Stagflation? OK, which one of those smiley faces do I use to indicate Sarcasm? I was pretty sure everybody here knew the answer to the question, it was just my sarcastic way of pointing out the obvious. Obvious to one and all, except the Chairman of the Federal reserve board. (more sarcasm) Yes. It was obviously a rhetorical question. Though a friend of mine, a very bright guy doing a very elite professional job but who is otherwise a complete sheeple, a guy with a degree in economics, laughed at me for using the word a few months ago. He claimed it to be a word I had made up myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 All crashes, without exception, according to Kindleberger, are triggered from a contraction in credit and liquidity. No real stock market selling will happen until the flows reverse. For my first post on this illustrious thread I am sorry to take issue with one of your comments. While bubble collapse is often associated with monetary tightening this is not always the case. A good example is the Mexican crisis in the mid 1990s where rates only started to rise in response to the collapsing bubble and associated money outflows. Nevertheless it is certainly true that the end of bubbles is typified by a collapse in liquidity but the key lesson from Mexico is that this need not necessarily be caused by domestic policy tightening. Generally speaking bubbles form when markets become wildly optimistic about future economic performance in a particular economy or sector and they usually suck in hot money from all corners of the world. They are likely to burst only when economic fundamentals have deteriorated sufficiently to undermine prior assumptions supporting the rosy outlook for sustained economic growth. Furthermore a collapse in liquidity may be hastened by the perception that higher returns can be had elsewhere, and this can be especially damaging if as usual the bubble is heavily reliant of hot foreign portfolio inflows. If this is the case we should be looking for a currency crisis as a primary indicator of bubble collapse and lo and behold a quick examination of the chart reveals a 20% plunge in the dollar index over the past year and that with the not infrequent intervention of the BoJ. Only because the US media is such a pawn of the financial establishment is this not treated as significant news, but merely referenced in veiled terms as an obscure concern on ?some traders minds?. LOL. Make no mistake though, the US asset bubble is most certainly in the process deflating. Of course for some terminal pessimists nothing short of sightings of the four horsemen herding singed bankers down Wall Street will satisfy their personal vision of financial doom. With plenty of timebombs still ticking in finance-land, visible disaster may yet strike but in my view Greenscam is so far to be congratulated warmly on his handling of this whole sorry mess. He has overseen the broad US stock market being cut in half and a precipitous fall in the dollar which in any other country would have triggered a major crisis. Yet none of these massive body blows has unleashed a debilitating shock to the system. Judged by objective standards that has got to be good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 One other thing.... Poor Buddadropping will be retiring as the Color Commentator. He's had enough. He'll show up from time to time, but he has informed me that he has elected to enjoy life and remove himself from the Matrix Monitor...... That's what I was afraid of yesterday. Blackbelt, Fartfolio not post any more. Machinehead is not as out spoken as before. Mark is a bit worn out. Now Budda. Hate to see this site reduce to only waves and cycles. Same here, Turtle. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 15, 2003 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 One other thing.... Poor Buddadropping will be retiring as the Color Commentator. ?He's had enough. ?He'll show up from time to time, but he has informed me that he has elected to enjoy life and remove himself from the Matrix Monitor...... That's what I was afraid of yesterday. Blackbelt, Fartfolio not post any more. Machinehead is not as out spoken as before. Mark is a bit worn out. Now Budda. Hate to see this site reduce to only waves and cycles. Not true. Blackbelt posts every day in the MIT thread. Machinehead is as outspoken and active as ever, commenting frequently on IDS and LOB. He posted over 20 times Thursday and Friday. Machinehead is a charter member of the NYCASS, and attended the first chapter meeting. If you want to see a member's posts, just click on "Members" above. Search for the member name. Go to the profile and click the link in the upper left "Find all posts by this member". Fartpolio Manager stopped posting because I took issue with something he wrote and gave him holy hell, just I as I once did to you, Turtle. You came back, and Fartpolio is welcome back, if he so chooses. People come and go in this game. People get tired. People I get angry with people, and they get angry with me. That's life. This site is bigger than ever, yet it continues to grow at the same exponential rate at which it has grown since the beginning. Discussion of e-waves and cycles represents far less than 5% of the discussions. Considering that I'm a cycle guy, and that the Hurst methodology has had a pretty fair record of identifying where this market is and where it's going, it's remarkable that there is so little discussion of it. More and more bullishness is seeping into the Stool. And that's ok. The vast majority us wants to be bullish. They have a built in bias that way. People can't handle the truth. It's why with every bear market bounce, there's yet another anal cyst calling a bottom, and why, in spite of overwhelming evidence that nothing has changed, so many people are willing to jump on the bullish bandwagon. It's human nature. But exactly what has changed this week relative to the past 3 years to make this market suddenly go up more than a few percent? Yet another refi bubble? Been there, done that. I'll let you all think about that question and I'd like to hear the answers. I'm open to considering them. What has changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 When I decided to become a student trader I had to do a huge rethink on where $$ went. I cycle or use public transport, turn out lights when I leave rooms, handwater the garden, keep telephone calls to a minimum, cook my own food, buy 2nd hand clothing. My office desk is the kitchen table I ate meals off when I was a teenager 40 yrs ago. And guess what, IT'S NOT THAT DIFFICULT. I live simply and happily. But I also own my own place and have no debt which helps a lot. Now I'm making money out of trading, hey, I might even have to pay tax this year :shocked I'm really quite happy to continue with my present lifestyle. I suppose many students will have gone through a similar situation but as I went straight from school to work it was a new experience for me but certainly not a negative one. A lot of people might be about to find out how life on a slim budget works but there's nothing wrong with a challenge.. Yes yes yes yes yes! Same here. And it's been the most liberating and "right" existential decision I've taken in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 What has changed? Nothing, except that more proof for the bear case and its utter seriousness has accrued. The spike in gold occurred. The bullrun in commodities continued. The crash in Uncle Buck extended. The blowoff in bonds. The exacerbation of the credit bubble. I could go on. Beyond that? A near triple bottom painted on the US weekly tape. Big whoop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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