Rubadub Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Hyper: I think I was wrong. A change from bear to bull is NOT going to fit some text book definition. The DOW and S&P have vaporized about 6 years of gains with these recent lows. That's a lot. The bounce was a successful retest and just about any indicator you look at e.g. MACD is showing a very positive divergence. Like it or not, the USA is not going to the dogs and we won't all be warming cans of beans on a Sterno grill. Do you want to be "right" or make money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 The M O A R 3/22/03 History teaches us, after three years of a post bubble bear market, short positions and hedges build up to a level that creates an artificial, but nevertheless real and severe shortage of stocks. To put it simply, there are too many shorts, and too little stock for sale to meet the demand to cover. This condition is made worse by the myriad of derivatives available today that were not available in the past. The level of "dynamic hedging" today is unprecedented. It includes massive selling of calls against stock positions, and a spectrum of wild cross hedging strategies, which create an explosive tinder box when things start to go the other way. Doc reviews the lessons of history, and the current conditions which created this tinder box, and of course the implications for the future. He chronicles the short and long term market cycles, and tells us where this moonshot is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight. Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 mmmmmm.... sterno baked beans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Great thread. What most people fail to understand, including most stoolies, is something that a very brilliant stoolie said a while back. I think it was rog, but I can't remember for sure. The gist of it is: Derivatives are the market. the vast majority are misreading the Commitment of Traders report because they see it as a mere sentiment indicator. It is much much more than that. The super high short position of the commercial hedgers was not a bearish indication because it created a tinder box. The BoJ lit the match. I discuss how this works, and the implications of the ensuing collapse in commercial hedger shorts, in your Weak End Anals. I think you will find it enlightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Rub... it's over, I was just pointing out the whiplash effect... saying it's time to go long is one thing... talking about Secular Bulls is something else... It's funny. "Like it or not, the USA is not going to the dogs and we won't all be warming cans of beans on a Sterno grill..." Not dogs... crapola. I doubt the US governent will waste time distributing cans of beans and sterno grills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Derivatives is the market..... yup the oracle out of omahahahaha said as much in his recent letter to shareholders of Brickshite hathaweigh... pointed out size scope and potential of a meltdown. prem Watsa from Fairfax Financial said same thing in his address to bag errrrr shareholders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 chart of the dow off of prubear. http://www.maui.net/~mauiben/dowfibo2.jpg Maybe that trend line holds. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzly_Canuck Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 BTW, if you watched George Washington (aka Louis Rukeyser) you would have noted as did I that all 3 of his panelists (who are pretty much perma-bulls) while bullish on the future were of the opinion that this move up has been too far too fast. That's how we climb the wall of worry. Buy the dips until end of June (as per charts I posted previously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 RUB- you're rubbing me the wrong way again-a week ago you posted the end is nigh now you post the new bull is here. The debt bubble, real estate bubble, derivative bubble, pension deficits etc are still with us and the worst is yet to come. U.S. debt will reach 150% of GDP in 2026 as things stand now. Increases in local taxes will reach a trillion $ this year. John Maudlin over at frontlinethoughts.com has written and documented the above scenario everyone here SHOULD HAVE A READ- Hyper will give the essay 2 paws up. As to Rubs "don't mess with Texas routine" no one supports the troops more than I do-but don't look for Johnny to come Marching home anytime soon-the administration has placed them in the swamp and it will take years and mindboggling deficits to drain it. As I said before if the market goes over 920 I will go long until it turns down but I doubt we will see 920. Pls read Maudlins essay for perspective if nothing else. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Aloha BARE: You must come to Hawaii to sample all the Asian Exotica, partake in some Maui Wowie, and get the big picture as Buddhadropping described. The most successful market intervention and PigMen setup of all time just happened. The public has been piling into bonds the entire time, right at the top. Gradually, as the bond market topples, they will move their money out of bonds back into stocks. The COT report shows that the commercials have nearly covered all shorts. Bear market is over as long as the March lows hold. Cyclical bull now in control, until proven otherwise. Look at a long term chart of MMM. Bull or bear action??? You must find some young, lustful, anxious girls coming out of the rehab clinic. They will be emerging in droves, ready for some manly action. Better get to the front of the line, so you can pick off the best..... Aloha..... I shorted Dell on Friday and looking at its valuation, it is a good short candidate. It can be a $5 share. Long MCD? The following is the chart of MCD, it just rebound from the 52 week low of $12.12 and now has broken 50 week moving at $14.16 and now attempting to break resistance at $14.6. MCD looks great to me. I also like BK which believe it or not, have a good chance of being bought out from the info I here. Many reasons here. I would have to get all my info, but the value investor friend of mine who whips but has them on his list for sure. He also likes ET, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Listen, I do not plan on being stubbornly anything, but where were all these bulls in the high 700's? Wall of worry? Give me a break, the only fear , continues to be fear of being out of the mkt. I see lots of reasons to be bearish, but if price does not want to cooperate, what can I say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Perhaps a better chartist than I , could highlight some examples of triple bottoms that have held? I think they are rare, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Mark- HUGE volume piling in?? COMPARED TO WHAT? Volume has ACTUALLY declined steadily since March 13th. Summoner and AB I agree with both your scenarios-Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 In the FWIW dept -- that load mouth can of corn Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker is still "rally on". Missed the first 30 min. of his radio show but from what I did hear, he says that this rally will end a "ways down the road". I don't think that he actually knows crap on his own so I suppose he'll make his next "get out" of the market call whenever his contact tells him that it is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzly_Canuck Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Listen, I do not plan on being stubbornly anything, but where were all these bulls in the high 700's? Wall of worry? Give me a break, the only fear , continues to be fear of being out of the mkt. I see lots of reasons to be bearish, but if price does not want to cooperate, what can I say? I posted my charts last week and said I was going long. Do a search. They're still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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