Poole To Potato Head: "we Have A Problem"

[phatbubble]

gruff, crapeuro (i think crapeuro, maybe crapusa) did a short piece tonight on how, statistically, the market has not always risen on the outbreak of war, or in the months thereafter. just the smell of this war seems to have been giving it indigestion, although i suppose if war followed an accelerating decline, there'd be the buying power to fuel one that there isn't now....and they'd make inane noises about a 'war rally', but it'd just be a bounce.

[brian4]

Well KA CHING, KACHING! You knew I was gonna do that didn't you. Made great COIN today sold two rungs on my ladder at the top and added two rungs at the bottom. My stop is now 831 (it won't get hit anytime soon). Mark no apology needed we know each other well. Over the weekend with END away Pile Driver and I were sticking by our waterfall call against those who it was rally ho! Well those who thought way got very wet today it wasn't a waterfall but a freakin torrent. This is only the beginning if you are thinking rally you are doomed. As Doc just posted we've got another week to 10 days of this ahead to levels you WON'T BELIEVE. My call is March 21 plus or minus 1 day that would be a fibonacci 55 days from low to low-that 55 days has ruled for over 6 months so remember the date. Forget the advance decline line the market is cracking in half because there are no buyers, none, zip, nada if you think this is bad wait until the point of recognition when the sellers want to dump at any cost-that will be the panic phase. Downside volume today was 94.8% of upside plus downside volume another 6 like today and we might be approaching a bottom. Now why is there no buying -well Joe Sixpack isn't interested and the fundies credit lines have been used and redemptions are mounting so where oh where will the buying come from answer there won't be any. Vix closed today at 37.85 I suspect we see 60 or 65 before this is over-remember in 87 it closed well over 150. Now I talk a lot about what goes around in the markets comes around-well do you what today was-do ya? do ya?-it was the 3rd anniversary of the all time high on NazQuack-how soon you forget. The credit mess is accellerating-FNM, FRE, and their bitch sister Sally got run over today after their credit worthiness was questioned-did I short them-YUP. To the stoolie who e mailed me the other day asking my thoughts on his short of FITB (a fave short of mine) You made a KaChing today-feels damn good doesn't it! This is wave 3 the big kill stay short with intelligent stops and reap the harvest. That thumping sound you hear is Summoner banging his head on the wall he closed some shorts yesterday-but knowing him-I'll wager he re shorted today-Trade Safe!

[torah man]

disclosure:

 

spx jun 800 put

spx apr 850 put

 

qqq jun 27 put

qqq apr 28 put

 

rgld

 

at the next bounce, as per sg et al., i will exchange the apr for may contracts.

 

if it starts moving down fast, then i hold on for the ride. this sure looks like the week.

 

just for everyone's interest in coincidents (sp?)

 

gulf war ended right before purim (jewish holiday) purim is next week on tuesday. maybe this war will start on the date the other war ended as a continuation.

 

s patrick's day is next week, lots of drunk irishmen and others all over nyc.

 

opex week.

 

based on studies of previous opex weeks ( i pay attention cause i do options) and based on the need for big changes next week.

 

down hard this week with bounce on friday before opex. up in beginning of opex with a down move starting again late in week or even friday.

 

not based on anything except the down move we are currently in having to be reversed next week to wipe thte options out. the war just gives the reason this month for the volitility. how convenient. the war rally will really be the opex normal jam.

[chiefywiefy]

Went back short ( RYDEX) at the close with the 8 day rolling over. I was expecting more of a swuppy from the puppy but all I got was stool.

[torah man]

b4,

 

march 21 for the bottom??

 

if so we were posting together and picked the same date +/-

[torah man]

what rydex fund was gtn holding, i wanted to get a quote??

[Kid]

Well KA CHING, KACHING! You knew I was gonna do that didn't you. ... This is only the beginning if you are thinking rally you are doomed. As Doc just posted we've got another week to 10 days of this ahead to levels you WON'T BELIEVE. ...

KA CHING, KA CHING! is right.

Still short SOX, SPX, DJX & XCI for indexes. Also short QQQ and other junk stocks for some small spending change.

[3Martinis]

 

 

*hic* Ahaaa...

 

gruff.....re: my IDS question today.

 

Perchance this elegant and uniform formation shall be noted as indicative of...... a 90% down day. *hic* No doubt we shall see this peculiar pattern repeatedly repeat itself forthwith.

Shlippery Shlope indeed.

[summoner]

B4 well said, VIX needs to breakout, repurchased 10 apr 900 spx puts at the open after looking over the charts last evening, still short EBAY and AMGN my LTSH....expect a bounce prior to mar exp on the 21st....maxpain 870, not to mention 14000 plus mar 800 puts went thru today which could put a floor on this decline short term. TRADE SAFE

[DrStool]

Taking Their Balls and Going Home 3/9/03

 

The market goes down because there are fewer and fewer who are ready, willing, and able to buy. There's always supply. There are always sellers for reasons having nothing to do with stock prices. And there are always alternative investments --not stocks, but supply nevertheless. The business about a mountain of cash on the sidelines is a dead red herring. There have to be people on the sidelines who can still play, and want to play. It's been a long time since this game has been any fun for most people. They don't want to play any more.

 

Doc expounds some more on this. He describes the dangers of the moment, examines the Feed and monetary data, chronicles the market cycles, and tells us where this shipwreck is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Will Uncle Buck ever get out of his sick bed? Will the Golden Stool ever recover, or is the move over now that Cramer is on board? Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight.

 

Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet!

[BAREister]

leaders have always plunged their populations into war. War is the one constant of history. We are witness now, to what the Durants called, in their volume on Rome (Ceasar and Christ) in their famed History of Civilisation: "the inexorable periodicity of war".

 

This war, however, is mostly gratuitous, and poorly conceived in terms of its reprecussions if one isn't profoundly cynical, that is.

 

We are already being subjected to daily stories about NK, and now the media is introducing Iran into the mix. This is probably well planned.

 

We need a BIG war to act as an economic stimulus. This Iraq war is, at least as conceived, a mere drop in the bucket of the national economy in relation to the stimulative effects of prior wars as a percentage thereof.

 

Not only does American military aggression satiate the ambitions and fantasies of the armchair right wing, it will, if "successful" secure hegemony both economic and militarily.

The legions of youth to serve as cannon fodder are a mere tool for the policy boyz. And there is a burgeoning boomlet there to tap coming of military age the next five to ten years.

Brutal demographics are certainly part of the calculus.

 

Wars rarely work out the way they're intended to. Historians have noted that since the time of Pliny if SNOT beFUR.

 

Americans aren't exempt from humanity's most terrible pathology. And we may not be as exempt and safe as we like to think we are. We think nothing of burning, maiming, killing hundreds of thousands of anonymous Mideasterners. We did it about a decade ago. We're about to do it again.

 

The hubris is breathtaking. The arrogance is shocking.

 

We will, probably, suffer some fearful reprisal or punishment for it.

 

The world was at peace when The Shrub took office. Now it is torn with dissension and on the brink of armed conflict that could, and probably shall, spiral wildly out of control.

 

Go figure.

 

HRFF is scared to add to shorts sans a bounce which means he probably should and will.

 

If there is no lASSt ditch efFURt tomorrow we may even crash.

[sweefraapp]

SPX March open interest:

800 puts - 35,052 (20,426 calls)

775 puts - 26,641 (11,050 calls)

750 puts - 42,699 ( 1,377 calls)

 

If we go under 800 & the sellers of these options don't think they can get the index up toward March 20th, they will have to sell stocks to off-set their positions. This will be the scenario for a waterfall - imho.

 

chain

[Guest]

YEEHAAaaa RIDE 'EM

 

What a day, just when I thought it couldn't get any better we're straight off the cliff again....

 

S4B you mentioned ASX yesterday and I meant to comment. Have had my eye on that for a while too, can't understand why it hasn't dropped off considering the state of the market. (ASX the aussie stock exchange code for all you non aussies). Think I'll cash in HVN which is up near 100% profit and buy a put on ASX. Looking at the other side of that monster top it looks like ASX will retrace that 1998 upside in a somewhat spectacular fashion. Will buy a fair bit of time just in case..

 

DeepBlueSea...yep shame about those old buildings (as in Darwin). As a country we don't have a lot of history so can't afford to lose too many original buildings. You should have seen what they did to Perth, WA in the 60s, decimated all the classy old stuff replacing it with boring metal and glass...Btw Darwin on cyclone alert atm...

[Guest]

The investment-related discussions here are great. Too bad that in order to read them I have to skip over the political hate speech of anti-Bush (pro-Saddam?)posters.

 

I guess it must be horribly frustrating for some, to have George W. Bush as their President. Even more so, since some crazy Americans actually admire him and believe he is a good, honest, decent, moral man (and a born again Christian -- not that there is anything wrong with that).

 

But despite your frustration, two years after the election seems like enough time to get over your loss, and move on. You will have the chance in just 20 months to vote back in Hillary or Tom Daschle or Dick Gephardt or Al Sharpton or Ted Kennedy. In the meantime maybe you could watch some old videos of Bill Clinton to cheer yourselves up.

 

Regarding investment topics, I was hoping for some comment here on today's Wall Street Journal article:

 

"WASHINGTON -- In a broadside attack aimed at shaking up the regulatory environment for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a prominent Federal Reserve policy maker warned of a potential "crisis" if steps aren't taken to rein in the rapidly expanding mortgage companies." (note: subscription required to view link)

 

Fed Governor Warns of Mortgage Crisis

 

The second topic I am concerned with now, since I am short AMZN, is it appears that shorting AMZN is indeed hopeless since large holders like Legg Mason (from Cramer: "Combined, Legg Mason funds own 16.58% of the online retailer, second only to Amazon chief Jeff Bezos.") have so much invested that they seem willing to spend a lot more to keep squeezing the shorts for as long as it takes, until the bear market ends and then they can make a windfall on the run to $100. Legg Mason owns 16% of Amazon

[machinehead]

"The Supreme Court ruled Monday that some workers who were exposed to cancer-causing asbestos can win money damages in court even though they do not yet have cancer and may never get it. The fear of developing cancer is grounds enough to collect ..."

 

Emotional distress

 

Now here is an angle we hadn't thought of. Just imagine the emotional distress suffered by millions of Americans as their investments and 401k's evaporated. "The fear of developing losses is grounds enough to collect ..."

 

And as in the asbestos litigation, all of the plaintiffs will give suspiciously similar testimony. "No, your Honor, I don't recall specifically which borker done this to me. But I do recollect seeing statements in my mail from all of the big ones -- Merrill Lynch, Charles Schwab, Fidelity ..."