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Welcome to "The January Effect"


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The worst first week in January ever.

 

The worst breadth since 1932.

 

Down the first week means down for the year.

 

Or is it??

 

As usual 9000 HedgeFunds want to know.

 

As previously stated, all HedgeFunds are acutely attuned to what worked last year.

 

Last year, The Crowd was always correct.

 

Now The Crowd is screaming to everyone to get short, as 2005 will be a downer.

 

As usual, all Crowd Predictions end up being Self Fulfilling Prophecies.

 

Why is that?

 

Because every HedgeFund manager is constantly looking over their shoulder, watching to see what the other 8999 HedgeFunds are buying or shorting.

 

Where ever the Herd of Wildebeasts goes, that's where the HedgeFunds go.

 

Oh, wait, the HedgeFunds are the Wildebeasts........

 

A couple of warning signs, though. The Large Breasted Hookers like BRCM were unusually strong. And kathie Lee closed well of from her intraday lows.

 

And we have one of those famous "Nipple Bottoms" right under the 50-day on most indexes, or pretty close.

 

How many times did we see that before?

 

Monday will tell us where the market wants to go next.

 

In the meantime, the HedgeFund Trade of the Day is long AAPL and short TASR.

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see you mon morn? limit dn open sp

 

news will break over wkend

 

Tsunami has diverted negative Iraq coverage this week. There seems to be a sense of media complacency about Iraq, at least until the election is over (elections are essentially media truces, truth be told). I think Zarkawi (eerily reminiscent of Dr. Zharkov, 30's genre Lenin-like nemesis of Flash Gordon) is boxed in, we could be set for a positive news cycle out of Iraq.

 

Bin Laden is still bathing naked on a Rio beach, surrounded by pina coladas and stylishly anorexic virgins, waiting for his curtain call. The deal was, he gets his 80 virgins while he's alive.

 

Bears need a gap up. Bulls needing/wanting to show their cards.

 

And...Kudlow wants liquidity.

 

It shall be done.

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jickiss is back!

 

and, Marky Mark, no matter what happens every day, or what does not happen, somehow, you are "Always on Point." As in today's comments. Very well said. For the Record, your jickiss thinks that, months from now, everyone will want to come back and re-read todays opening points.

 

your jickiss used to sit in the office, downtown in Philly, and, faithfully, a rather "interesting" math-spy-guy, out of Colorado Springs, would come by in December, and "Explain" how, with very high probability, the "January Effect" could be used to make 15 to 30 % year-after-year. a lot of times it worked.

 

as Marky Mark has just described, this is not the case for 2005. Omnious.

 

as for Marky Mark staying on point, for the record, your jickiss only saw this level of ability in a few partners at Goldman, or Manging Directors at Solly. and it is posted here all the time....Capitalstooldotcom!

 

Secondly, shifting gears, your jickiss read the Silver Comments from Mr. Hamilton, that can be found, via the link, at 321gold website. The comments are Very Bullish, after a suitable period of watching, of course, for Silver.

 

now, earlier, your jickiss said, (said in December, 2004) that Silver and CDE, (and it would be very good to have other names offered by posters), could be a way to make Big Coin in 2005.

 

So, at the bottom, hopefully you will see a 10 year chart of CDE, that shows the development of a "handle" on a very clear tea-cup. IF, IF,IF,IF, this formation works out in a bullish manner, if, if, if Mr. Hamilton is right, and Silver, (the metal, not the horse) takes off, your jickiss wants Everyone to BE on BOARD, to make Giant Coin.

 

now hear this, please, this is not yet ready to happen. let's be clear on this....your jickiss does not know if CDE has to trade at 3.13 or whatever, and with, maybe, 2 more months of base-building, for the formation to develop....but if it does, maybe CDE can trade above 10-12 in 2005. Meantime, Butterfield8, let's keep watching the beans (soybeans) for the signal in silver.

 

Finally, in re GG, your jickiss saw a Formal Offer, made by GLG, open until Feb 14, 2005, for terms of .89 GLG = 1.00 GG, subject to withdrawl of GG bid for a combination with WHT.

 

your jickiss hopes that we see this deal talk heat up, and that the rally in the dollar ends soon enough, for the metal Gold to take off to 480, and for Deeper Pockets to step in and buy GG for at least 30.00 usa dollars per share.

 

stay tuned.

hold fast.

CDE chart, next, if it works. look for a teacup and see the handle forming before your eyes!

regards to all!

jickiss!

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