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OK folks I'm seriously confused about the GDP here.

 

I took a bunch of math in school, so I should be able to get this but I can't seem to make it work.

 

In current dollars:

 

Q3 03 = 11,038

 

Q2 03 = 10,803

 

Q3 02 = 10,506

 

So the preceding Q comparison yields a percent increase of 2.1% (or 1.7% in chained dollars)

 

A year over year comparison yields 5.1% (or 3.3% in chained dollars)

 

Given that we just experienced the highest increase in the price index in recent years, which is subtracted from the current dollars to yield the real GDP, we should be looking at a number significantly lower than 5%.

 

I simply cannot make the posted numbers fit the percent increases posted in table 1.

 

Further, if you go to table 7 titled "Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago" it states that the percent change is 3.3% agreeing with my chained dollar calculation.

 

Where the hell is the 7.2% coming from?

 

:unsure:

The number is obivously BS. Its funny how 73 economist surveyed on Bloomberg are able to guess the econ releases every day +/- 0.01% although they all claim to be using different methods. Seems to me the govt is curve fitting.

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I came to the board to see the reaction to the GDP number. I saw Doc's post, and I'll have to read last night's Mark to Market to get what it's all about.

 

Doc is right. TA does not claim to give you a 100% guaranteed look into the future, but an edge. If you can be right 60% of the time, you can make good money. Heck, in some systems, you make money being right a small percentage of the time. If there is a potential for a crash in September or October, that's useful information even if the crash doesn't happen.

 

As you know, I'm no longer in BEARX. I still believe in BEARX and the bear case over the long haul, but I needed the money for other pressing needs.

 

Good luck to all bears!

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No seriously, I don't do gubmint math - your help would be appreciated.

 

This from the GDP release:

 

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 9.0 percent, or $235.7 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $11,038.4 billion

 

Ummmm.

 

235.7/11,038 = 2.1%

 

235.7/(11,038-235.7) = 2.2%

 

What's the 9%?

 

The previous quarters increase was 114 so they're not doing a strict increase comparison because that would be a bit over 100%.

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Of course the GDP numbers are bs...but the majority either don't know or don't care. We've gone from the Enron/WCOM/Global crossing scandals to the Grasso/NYSEHedge fund scandals. And, what have we learned? Nothing! The SEC didn't even investigate the Putnam mutual fund scandal. Nothing matters until it matters.

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From the BEA release:

 

"The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in PCE, a deceleration in imports, an upturn in exports, and accelerations in residential fixed investment and in

equipment and software that were partly offset by a deceleration in federal national defense spending."

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No seriously, I don't do gubmint math - your help would be appreciated.

 

This from the GDP release:

 

 

 

Ummmm.

 

235.7/11,038 = 2.1%

 

235.7/(11,038-235.7) = 2.2%

 

What's the 9%?

 

The previous quarters increase was 114 so they're not doing a strict increase comparison because that would be a bit over 100%.

Sphinxter,

 

The numbers you are doing are qtrly. Multiply by 4 to get annualized numbers.

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