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Found the following on the dining room table last night when I returned from the pool, something Nancy had cut out of a recent edition of Newsday:

 

DEAR ABBY: I want to address my comments to a wonderful young man who tossed a football with my dad just before Father's Day in Girsh Park in Goleta, Calif.:

 

My dad is 75. He played football in college, but has not played for many, many years. When he saw you and your pal tossing the football in the park, I watched him look on with envy. I asked him if he wanted to play, and he said yes. When I asked you if you'd toss the ball with him, you kindly agreed. You spent some time playing catch with him even though he can't throw the ball like he used to - and he can't catch like he used to, either. You even assured him your throwing was bad when he flubbed a catch.

 

Your tossing the ball with my dad meant the world to him. Not only did he talk about it all through dinner that night, but even now he talks about how he threw again.

 

We were in the park that day for my daughter's birthday. My parents had driven up from Los Angeles to be with us as we needed to be together as a family.

 

What you didn't know was that Dad had been diagnosed with cancer the week before.

 

My mom and I are so grateful to you for stopping your own activity to spend time with a 75-year-old man who needed it. May you always be blessed with the same kindness you showed my dad.

 

-- Grateful Daughter

 

DEAR GRATEFUL DAUGHTER: Your letter says it all.

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Maxxi,

 

Beyond a new 12-month high in the CRB, there's a stairstep of targets that go WAY back.

 

1996: ~262

1988: ~272

1984: ~283

1979: 337.60 (record high)

 

Hitting that record high is going to take $1,000 gold and $20 silver. But those previous secondary highs are easily within reach with further dollar weakness.

 

The CRB trading at a 7 or 15 or 20-year high would carry a strong message, one that contradicts Al and Benny.

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Lets see, longs all in and shorts covered in anticipation of todays GDP. Gold and silver moving up and commodities are too. Today and the next couple of trading days are going to get interesting. B)

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Thank you to all for your thoughtful and emotional posts last night.

 

I never asked, nor did I expect, anyone to put me on a pedestal. If you put me there, sooner or later, you will have to take me down.

 

As for my Crash post, I think the reasons for it were clearly delineated in the Anals. I tracked the progress of the Nikkei model, and last night I said we are out of time. It's either now, or we are diverging from the model. I said as clear as I possibly could that cycles are indicating that it probably will not happen.

 

Gruff, sorry to disappoint you, my good fellow, but yes, sensationalist headlines and quotes are part of marketing. But I never post anything that I do not believe in my heart. My goal is to arouse the curiosity of those who have yet to read the totality of my analysis. My goal is to get them to read it, and think about it. My goal has always been to encourage people to think. I realize that some will, some won't.

 

The desire of some people to have me "admit when I am wrong", is, to say the least, puzzling. I am a researcher, anal cyst, and writer. I make guesses based on what I see, and on how I see things fitting together. I have no ulterior motive other than to get it right, and to see this website grow so that I can support my family doing what I love. A guess is a guess, regardless of how much analysis is behind it. Sometimes future events prove those guesses to be well founded, and other times, not.

 

I believe in personal responsibility. I have taken a lot of abuse from people who blame me for their losses. I accept that. I knew that I would have to, going into this. I have neither sympathy for, nor patience with, those who blame others for their problems, and likewise for those who somehow feel that they are responsible for the thoughts and actions of others. To me these are childish notions. About this, I am a hardhead.

 

I am and anal cyst and a forecaster. I am wrong about something every day, and have said so every day on every page of this website since day 1. I frankly cannot understand why either a seasoned investment professional or an inexperienced newbie would not understand that. It seems a lot of people think otherwise.

 

But like I said, I never asked to be put on a pedestal. If you are of a mind to do that, please take me down. I ask only that you read my stuff carefully, and think about it. My greatest hope is that you enjoy it enough to keep doing so every day. I love to analyze, and I love to write, and I want you to gain something from my sharing that with you.

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Copper rose to a six-year high in London after Japan and South Korea reported rising industrial production and the world's second-biggest copper producer said it wouldn't restart idled capacity yet.

 

Copper for delivery in three months was $21, or 1 percent, higher and bid at $2,036 a metric ton in electronic trading on the London Metal Exchange as of 7:47 a.m. That's the highest compared with closing prices since October 1997.

 

Red metal rages

 

As the old saying goes, "every recession has a copper bottom." That's how "Doctor Copper" got his PhD in Economics.

 

We're about to say goodbye for good to sub-$1.00 copper, I think. That's as much a statement about the dolor as about copper, by the way.

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Thank you to all for your thoughtful and emotional posts last night.

 

I never asked, nor did I expect, anyone to put me on a pedestal. If you put me there, sooner or later, you will have to take me down.

 

As for my Crash post, I think the reasons for it were clearly delineated in the Anals. I tracked the progress of the Nikkei model, and last night I said we are out of time. It's either now, or we are diverging from the model. I said as clear as I possibly could that cycles are indicating that it probably will not happen.

 

Gruff, sorry to disappoint you, my good fellow, but yes, sensationalist headlines and quotes are part of marketing. But I never post anything that I do not believe in my heart. My goal is to arouse the curiosity of those who have yet to read the totality of my analysis. My goal is to get them to read it, and think about it. My goal has always been to encourage people to think. I realize that some will, some won't.

 

The desire of some people to have me "admit when I am wrong", is, to say the least, puzzling. I am a researcher, anal cyst, and writer. I make guesses based on what I see, and on how I see things fitting together. I have no ulterior motive other than to get it right, and to see this website grow so that I can support my family doing what I love. A guess is a guess, regardless of how much analysis is behind it. Sometimes future events prove those guesses to be well founded, and other times, not.

 

I believe in personal responsibility. I have taken a lot of abuse from people who blame me for their losses. I accept that. I knew that I would have to, going into this. I have neither sympathy for, nor patience with, those who blame others for their problems, and likewise for those who somehow feel that they are responsible for the thoughts and actions of others. To me these are childish notions. About this, I am a hardhead.

 

I am and anal cyst and a forecaster. I am wrong about something every day, and have said so every day on every page of this website since day 1. I frankly cannot understand why a either seasoned investment professional or an inexperienced newbie would not understand that. It seems a lot of people think otherwise.

 

But like I said, I never asked to be put on a pedestal. If you are of a mind to do that, please take me down. I ask only that you read my stuff carefully, and think about it. My greatest hope is that you enjoy it enough to keep doing so every day. I love to analyze, and I love to write, and I want you to gain something from my sharing that with you.

What he said

 

As a trader WE (NOT Doc, not The End, not Gruff etc or anyone else) are responsible for our trades - anything else is lazy and cowardly. I have a system now - if i had followed it this week I would be profit - not following it was "my bad" so I am flat now - MY PROBLEM. However, I "use doc" as another point of view which I respect - neither of us is always right (though when we agree, I relax more with my position!! :D )

 

In the nicest way, the Anals are only a tool and it is up to us to use it wisely. One arrow in a quiver. And there are a lot of other services out there which are poorer and more expensive - so I for one will continue to subscribe here.....

 

Sorry if this is out of place here but had to post after reading the (now locked) mtoM thread....

 

Peace stoolies

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Well said Doc. You present the information and your reading of the data responsibly. It is then the responsibility of others to weigh it and make their own decisions based on that. Keep up the good work Doc. B) :)

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MH- what happened to the CRB in times past during a significant SM correction?

 

Was it ever rising at the same time that the SM was locating and air pocket and did it sell off in sympathy?

Sphinx - a long-term pdf chart of the CRB since 1972 is posted here:

 

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/cr.pdf

 

Statistics say that the CRB is uncorrelated with stock indeces. For instance, it rose in the wake of the 1987 crash. But it fell from late 1990 through 1992, when the stock market was having a great run.

 

On the other hand, the CRB was weak in 1998, when deflation fears swept the stock AND commodity markets.

 

That's what lack of correlation is all about - sometimes they move together, sometimes not.

 

Academics are attracted to commodities as an asset class, due to their lack of correlation with stocks and negative correlation to bonds.

 

I'm in commods for two fundamental reasons:

 

(1) Dirt-cheap prices -- almost the ONLY cheap asset in the world; and

(2) DOLLAR HEDGE! Snowman hedge! Political f***-up hedge! i.e. "bring 'em on!"

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Live doolar looks more dead to me :lol:

 

TX Z03 9213 9215 9152 9165 -47

 

must be all that money spend on FNM

 

I saw tv ad today for fannie It was called the most powerfull

or something like that. stated homes for 100's of thousands

of joes will be financed thru them ..........

 

sounded like sell the hype to me :lol:

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